mud_error
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Posts posted by mud_error
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squall line really developed all the way up from the south coast towards midlands in last 20 mins or so - blitzortung shows well (not sure why netweather not showing the strikes)
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Pretty epic storm here in Witney now - a lot of CGs
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The 37.1 at Heathrow ties today as the 4th hottest day now with the 1990 Cheltenham 37.1
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Tstorm now in Witney, west of oxford. Several flashes in last few minutes
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Flooding bad in oxford, Botley road is closed. Happy to say easied off here.
Seems to me to just the same as when the midlands took the brunt of some storms, then kent did, its just today its oxfordshire.
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Still torrential here, the water is rather too close to the front door for comfort and the cats are going metal!
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two storms this evening, this second one is really quite active. The front garden is a pond and the road a river of brown water
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Witney a bit earlier
I thought we had had our lot, but getting really quite heavy again. massive bumble bee flakes.
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12 minutes ago, cheese said:
This is what the NHC's latest update says. Pretty much unchanged from earlier. They posted it only half an hour ago.
Thats just extraordinary. Looks like its rolling along that coast line. Forecasting where will get hit worst looks pretty impossible
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A nice round 5.0 for me please
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Really underestimated the impact of the wind here, real damage being caused - daughter's school is closed as sections of roof have blown off, not happened before.
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Great day out to patterdale with the kids in the snow - several inches higher up, and we managed to have a few minutes at least where they did enjoy the sledging as much as the other half!
surprised with this new snow - 5 cm now at the house and still snowing (for a few minutes yet), -0.2.
evening snow man time now!
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6.5 please if I can join now for 2016, thanks
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odd day today, max 15 deg this morning at 10am and a strong steady SE wind. Warmest day this late in the month I can remember. While we would have had a foehn wind going with a SEly here at the foot of the mountains, I'm can't quite understand why we where so very much warmer than others, normally my readings are nothing to write home about.
some great clouds too, some 'waterfalling' down the fells and a series of wave like clouds much higher up
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evening
just checked the latest and seen the output for here on Boxing day. Can't quite believe it. What's causing the front to stall? or is it another one of those horrible lined up with the isobars long fetch rain forever systems from hell again?
Would really like to get a feel for the reliability of this, given the significant change from the prior run as I might be building heavy walls tommorow as a result!
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It is, as it happens, having a good go at snowing in cockermouth now. The hills around having decent falls of snow, which has the benefit of 'sticking the rain to the gound' which is better than it sliding off - no impact thus far on the rivers from todays wetness here.
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2 hours ago, ColdFront80 said:
I'm not sure one storm proves or disproves anything. We have many factors strong jet stream, strong El Nino, strong polar vortex, high pressure pulling in moisture from Florida. So lots of contributions. Climate change could play a part but I don't think one storm proves anything.
what they mean is that the probability of an event of this magnitude was made that much more likely because of climate change. They start from climate change being accepted as fact rather than using this event to try to 'prove' climate change, which as you say, as a single data point be pretty hopeless.
So, I think they say, which is in line with concensus is, that these storms have always happened, it is just that bit more likely that we get a storm with rainfall over x amount than it would have been prior to climate change.
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moutainsnow, I assume you have livestock and farm. I know this may be off topic, but I feel your pain. I trust you are now getting access to the support you need.
My post earlier was mainly just trying to understand the linked data source, does anyone have any data suggesting higher rainfall past events (pre current MO modern records). If there is, it would really provide challenge to these 'one in x years' event statements that always seem bold to me.
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25 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
More nonsense lake district flooding of 1897 and and again in 1898 were worse ,surface irrigation by modern agriculture methods, makes the flooding situation far worse. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/british-rainfall
Worse how? Where in the attached document are you looking? I'd be interested if you think the 341mm exceeded long ago. Modern agriculture not much to do with anything, unless you count sheep grazing the fells as modern.
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Hi
May be of local interest, but the single wettest day ever in UK is hasn't made an appearance - 314mm in 24hrs 20th Nov 2010. Resulting torrent wrecked my town and took out the majority of bridges in NW cumbria
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Thanks! this is pretty cool. This shows 5 CG strikes within a few hundred metres of me last night in the space of 3 mins around 9:56, thought that was a scarey and loud episode. Is it accurate, do we think? Also, 4 of them show as positive and only one negative - how can they tell? Also interested if the power they say they have can be measured - the worryingly close 13 KA "strong slammer" does sound kind of dramatic.