West is Best
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Posts posted by West is Best
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Very interesting to see this. If SSTs are important, as I've always maintained, then despite this loopy warmth we've been having there's every chance of a potent cold switch. I don't think we should be reckoning on the 62/63 sort of talk - it doesn't help anyone to talk like that. But there's definitely some interesting signs around.
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My first post :blink:
Those SST charts are very interesting - they do show quite a difference from last year. SteveB where did you get the charts - i'd like to look at them in more detail if possible.
thanks
Welcome Red Raven.
I agree - those SSTs are extremely interesting. Although we're having a ridiculously warm autumn - probably heading for the warmest ever on record - I've often banged on about SSTs in winter. This year is much, much, better for cold lovers.
I'm not reading anything into this but there have also been stunning heavy falls in the Rockies - amazingly early falls. Some resorts have snow depths which they would only normally achieve by the beginning of January! This is a total contrast to last year, which was quite a struggle. There have also been early falls in the Alps in the past few days.
These are not enough imho to dampen my thoughts for a mild start to the winter, but I'm definitely not going to rule out cold possibilities.
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Just remember 4th November 1946 - when North Wales recorded 21.7c
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That's the November UK record right?
The problem this time in comparison with that is that we are coming out of a record run of above average months, and a likely Sept-Oct record warmth. Everything is so much warmer (though not Greenland it seems).
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Don't forget their Princess Diana campaign.
Seriously. its about time the Express, and other tabloids for that matter, grew up and put something worthwhile reading in their papers. The Express is a dire read, although their TV critic is good and the paper itself is quite absorbant
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Ah, yes, Diana! You're right!
I love the Private Eye tabloids section - always hits the nail on the head!
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Once again the Daily Express have their front page about the weather today still probably trying to scaremonger I expect!
I haven't read the article myself, I just saw the picture on their website. But no doubt, it'll probably say s0omething about the winter of '63!
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Well they've probably exhausted the 'House Price collapse imminent' headlines for 2 or 3 years, so now it's the weather's turn for rubbish from the Express ...
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Cheers
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Another piece of balanced journalism from our wonderful tabloid press ...!
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Yet again I feel the press are blowing this all out of proportion and trying to create panick among the general public. However I will add that at least some of thier facts are correct.
Read this and make your own mind up. there are also some other articles to be read on the links.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_brit...ticle321425.ece
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It's bloody stupid isn't it? The opening two paragraphs read thus:
"Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity.
Prolonged sub-zero temperatures after nearly a decade of mild winters could result in the death of tens of thousands of people ..."
Absolutely bloody silly ...
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i was reading an article ysterday about this week it was saying how people where sunbathing yesterday but its going to come to an end at the weekend with snow probable in scotland.
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People were definitely sunbathing in London. It has been ludicrously warm for mid-October. The Sun had a pic of a girl in the sea at Bournemouth, but they may have forced her in there with wads of money.
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It's called mild ramping and is part of a troublesome condition called 'pot and kettle' <_<
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Actually, it's called truth.
But just to show how conciliar I am, the cool pool to the far north is certainly better than this time last year. The fact that we have a -0.5C anomaly to the north but a +2C anomaly to the west does not of course make the milder pool 4x more significant. Well, not yet.
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Afternoon-
Its been a good week in terms of latest SST data- With the cold anomalies to the North beginning to grow and the atlantic ones beginning to disperse...
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Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days!
WIB
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A terrific, momentous, post Steve. It's taken me two days to digest
One observation ... I'm sure you're right that an easterly set-up is not per se the harbinger of snow, except to east coast areas. But in my memory from childhood it was always the battle between cold to the east and mild to the west that brought the heavy snowfalls. If Russia and the European mainland got properly cold, and we got into an easterly feed situation, it was when the fronts advanced from the west that the fun really began. And the key there was the track of those low pressure systems. Sometimes they crossed the Midlands, bringing snow to the far north and mild to the south. But sometimes we got a channel low, or near enough, and that produced substantial falls. Furthermore, I seem to remember when that happend the easterlies often reasserted themselves, not least because to the north of the system is of course an easterly (anti-clockwise) feed.
What still worries me about today's conditions, quite aside from the general increase in temperatures, is that we seem to be missing this vital ingredient. We have low pressures crossing a good 200 miles further north and we never seem to be in a genuine battleground of mild and cold such as would produce lots of the white stuff. We're left clutching at northerly incursions as our only source.
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Happy days!.....
Promising signs in FI - might come true for once
Good to see nice cooling going on in all the vital areas and that any thoughts of too many warm anomalies in the wrong places are looking mistaken.
Roll on winter - it's looking cold, cold, cold
SP
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You're such a cold ramper Tamara!
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Yes - it would be good for that to happen again!!
All perfectly normal to happen once every two decades though
SP
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I'm afraid that on balance this is all very standard stuff, and rather tedious.
Every year it's the same old story ...
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Hi SM. One could almost be forgiven for thinking that the north pole was on the move - towards the UK. Seriously, though, more ice, more snow, cooler SSTs - something's definitely going on in that area.
It's typical that as soon as the press get hold of a story, the reverse starts to happen. All this hysteria about the ice caps disappearing and suddenly ice reformation steps up. Good old mother nature.
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This is rather an exaggeration. When one heads into October in the northern hemisphere one expects the ice caps to start growing again. It would be seriously bizarre if they didn't. All very normal, and in no way a contradiction of the major problems of year on year ice shrinkage.
WIB
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I noticed during the coverage of the tragedy of the death of 4 men during the Great North run mentioned soaring temperatures although I wouldn't call 18C a soaring temperature in September?
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The coverage I saw referred to 'unseasonably warm' tempearature and 'above average for the time of year in that region', both of which are true.
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Ahhh so your just picking on the smaller areas how about thinking about the overall temperatures with IS overall cooler than this time last year. and the area north of the UK is also colder than this time last year.
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:lol:
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One thing I notice WIB is that to the north of the UK and to the West of Norway, In 2004, there is a yellow-ish colour. This year it is a blue- colour.
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Absolutely - to the far north (and it is far) it has definitely been cooler. Trouble is it looks as if the warmer anomaly is pushing into that area, squeezing it out. I really don't think the seas to the far north have a huge impact: at least certainly not in the way that the mid-Altantic and GIN corridor do. On the other hand, to be fair if we retain -ve anomalies to the north and we get a northerly it would, logically, follow that it's going to help! The only fly in that very large sea-ointment is that beyond the -ve anomaly is a pretty potent +ve anomaly in the arctic.
2004 Far north:
2005 Far north:
(p.s. if I carry on with artistry of this quality I'll be vying for the Turner prize
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I think your colour blind and need to look at those charts again as the SST's are certainly cooler over the atlantic than this time last year.
Im not a cold ramper im just making sure that peoples warm ramping ALSO doesn't colour there opinion when reading the charts.
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Oh really? Well that's very interesting. Now have a look again at these two charts and tell me what you see my friend, and everyone else who read your post:
2004:
2005:
QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM
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Not to be rude wib but could you change your record it seems to be stuck.
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Not if I think it's right - no.
The +ve anomlaies were more extreme in the arctic circle this time last year, but my judgement in looking at those and other comparative charts is that the +ve anomalies are more widespread this year. Certainly the mid-Atlantic is uniformly +ve compared to last year's -ve.
If the record appears to be playing in the same groove it's because I am convinced that global warming is the most important driving force behind our weather at present. Don't blame me. Having said that, GW cannot always 'win' over other factors, so I certainly don't rule out the possibility of cold snaps this winter.
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I had noticed the cold pool also. What has to be considered is that the SST's in January will most likely not resemble the ones we have currently.
However, am I right in surmising that if the cold pool remains between Iceland and Norway, that it would inhibit the formation of LP's in that area and consequently bring about the possibility of a strong SH?
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Frankly the +ve SST anomaly is pushing north and now covering almost the whole north Atlantic. If this process goes on for another 4-6 weeks then I virtually guarantee that that's the end of prospects for an icy winter (N.B. that doesn't mean cold snaps won't happen)
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What data are you using?
compare the chart I posted with this one from a few weeks ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.8.27.2005.gif
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Well of course the sea is cooling - we've gone from August to September! I'm using the anomaly charts and the +ve anomalies have grown since 4 weeks ago.
I find the good 'ol net-weather SST anomaly chart to be fine - certainly a little more distinct that the one you are using which looks like it's taken from a satellite hovering somewhere over Tierra del Fuego!
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The Sea to our NE continues to cool faster than normal - :o
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No it doesn't. The trend over the past 4 weeks has been for northern hemisphere ocean +ve anomalies to spread. The only sign of hope that I can see for cold lovers is that the extremes are not at the moment quite as acute as last year in certain key areas. Unfortunately the eastern seaboard and mid-Atlantic are well above average, and this is a very poor sign for the winter. The GIN corridor, all important, is slightly less above average than last year.
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Using Unisys data, I have put together a comparison of actual SSTs for the first week of September for each of the past 6 years:
Taking Faroe Islands as an example, the dataset reads as follows:
2000 - 11C
2001 - 11C
2002 - 10.5C
2003 - 12.5C
2004 - 12C
2005 - 10C
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I'm very sceptical about the accuracy of this I'm afraid. Have you used proper feeds from buoys over this period? The SST maps are pretty notorious for inaccuracy, but a cursory glance at the charts suggests SSTs for the northern hemisphere are extremely high this year. What might be interesting is for you to do a comparison of the eastern seaboard, and GIN corridor. Now why, I wonder, would you have plumped for the Faroe Islands as your example ...?
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That horrible 'daisy-chain effect' with Low after Low after Low crossing the Atlantic and connected by fronts that seem to permanently straddle the UK. Yuk.
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The way those SSTs have pushed +ve over the last 2 weeks even the parts just above average to the north may push further ahead. Still plenty of time for change though.
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Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Great work Enforcer - and very interesting.
The current SST situation is certainly interesting, but having just looked at the GFS runs in the key areas from the Labrador sea through the GIN corridor (including southern Greenland) I'm distinctly worried that we may see a repeat. There's a lot of mild air forecast to push into those areas, forcing back some of the cold pooling to the far north of Greenland.
This is a key month I reckon - it could decide the winter.