West is Best

I must have missed a link here BFTP - can you post comparable charts for this year viz a vis the past 20 years at the same time? Despite my asking for the above I'm not sure your point is valid. It's the summer warmth, not the winter cold, that it the ice-killer at the moment unless I'm much mistaken. In other words, even if you can prove that the current ice levels are at or above the mean for, say, the past 20 years at this moment, it's the year on year summer melt that appears to be of such concern.

Great work Enforcer - and very interesting. The current SST situation is certainly interesting, but having just looked at the GFS runs in the key areas from the Labrador sea through the GIN corridor (including southern Greenland) I'm distinctly worried that we may see a repeat. There's a lot of mild air forecast to push into those areas, forcing back some of the cold pooling to the far north of Greenland. This is a key month I reckon - it could decide the winter.

Very interesting to see this. If SSTs are important, as I've always maintained, then despite this loopy warmth we've been having there's every chance of a potent cold switch. I don't think we should be reckoning on the 62/63 sort of talk - it doesn't help anyone to talk like that. But there's definitely some interesting signs around.

Welcome Red Raven. I agree - those SSTs are extremely interesting. Although we're having a ridiculously warm autumn - probably heading for the warmest ever on record - I've often banged on about SSTs in winter. This year is much, much, better for cold lovers. I'm not reading anything into this but there have also been stunning heavy falls in the Rockies - amazingly early falls. Some resorts have snow depths which they would only normally achieve by the beginning of January! This is a total contrast to last year, which was quite a struggle. There have also been early falls in the Alps in the past few days. These are not enough imho to dampen my thoughts for a mild start to the winter, but I'm definitely not going to rule out cold possibilities.

That's the November UK record right? The problem this time in comparison with that is that we are coming out of a record run of above average months, and a likely Sept-Oct record warmth. Everything is so much warmer (though not Greenland it seems).

Ah, yes, Diana! You're right! I love the Private Eye tabloids section - always hits the nail on the head!

Well they've probably exhausted the 'House Price collapse imminent' headlines for 2 or 3 years, so now it's the weather's turn for rubbish from the Express ...

Another piece of balanced journalism from our wonderful tabloid press ...!

It's bloody stupid isn't it? The opening two paragraphs read thus: "Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity. Prolonged sub-zero temperatures after nearly a decade of mild winters could result in the death of tens of thousands of people ..." Absolutely bloody silly ...

People were definitely sunbathing in London. It has been ludicrously warm for mid-October. The Sun had a pic of a girl in the sea at Bournemouth, but they may have forced her in there with wads of money.

Actually, it's called truth. But just to show how conciliar I am, the cool pool to the far north is certainly better than this time last year. The fact that we have a -0.5C anomaly to the north but a +2C anomaly to the west does not of course make the milder pool 4x more significant. Well, not yet.

Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days! WIB

A terrific, momentous, post Steve. It's taken me two days to digest One observation ... I'm sure you're right that an easterly set-up is not per se the harbinger of snow, except to east coast areas. But in my memory from childhood it was always the battle between cold to the east and mild to the west that brought the heavy snowfalls. If Russia and the European mainland got properly cold, and we got into an easterly feed situation, it was when the fronts advanced from the west that the fun really began. And the key there was the track of those low pressure systems. Sometimes they crossed the Midlands, bringing snow to the far north and mild to the south. But sometimes we got a channel low, or near enough, and that produced substantial falls. Furthermore, I seem to remember when that happend the easterlies often reasserted themselves, not least because to the north of the system is of course an easterly (anti-clockwise) feed. What still worries me about today's conditions, quite aside from the general increase in temperatures, is that we seem to be missing this vital ingredient. We have low pressures crossing a good 200 miles further north and we never seem to be in a genuine battleground of mild and cold such as would produce lots of the white stuff. We're left clutching at northerly incursions as our only source.

You're such a cold ramper Tamara!

I'm afraid that on balance this is all very standard stuff, and rather tedious. Every year it's the same old story ...

This is rather an exaggeration. When one heads into October in the northern hemisphere one expects the ice caps to start growing again. It would be seriously bizarre if they didn't. All very normal, and in no way a contradiction of the major problems of year on year ice shrinkage. WIB

The coverage I saw referred to 'unseasonably warm' tempearature and 'above average for the time of year in that region', both of which are true.

:lol:

Absolutely - to the far north (and it is far) it has definitely been cooler. Trouble is it looks as if the warmer anomaly is pushing into that area, squeezing it out. I really don't think the seas to the far north have a huge impact: at least certainly not in the way that the mid-Altantic and GIN corridor do. On the other hand, to be fair if we retain -ve anomalies to the north and we get a northerly it would, logically, follow that it's going to help! The only fly in that very large sea-ointment is that beyond the -ve anomaly is a pretty potent +ve anomaly in the arctic. 2004 Far north: 2005 Far north: (p.s. if I carry on with artistry of this quality I'll be vying for the Turner prize )

Oh really? Well that's very interesting. Now have a look again at these two charts and tell me what you see my friend, and everyone else who read your post: 2004: 2005: QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM

Not if I think it's right - no. The +ve anomlaies were more extreme in the arctic circle this time last year, but my judgement in looking at those and other comparative charts is that the +ve anomalies are more widespread this year. Certainly the mid-Atlantic is uniformly +ve compared to last year's -ve. If the record appears to be playing in the same groove it's because I am convinced that global warming is the most important driving force behind our weather at present. Don't blame me. Having said that, GW cannot always 'win' over other factors, so I certainly don't rule out the possibility of cold snaps this winter.

Frankly the +ve SST anomaly is pushing north and now covering almost the whole north Atlantic. If this process goes on for another 4-6 weeks then I virtually guarantee that that's the end of prospects for an icy winter (N.B. that doesn't mean cold snaps won't happen)

Well of course the sea is cooling - we've gone from August to September! I'm using the anomaly charts and the +ve anomalies have grown since 4 weeks ago. I find the good 'ol net-weather SST anomaly chart to be fine - certainly a little more distinct that the one you are using which looks like it's taken from a satellite hovering somewhere over Tierra del Fuego!

No it doesn't. The trend over the past 4 weeks has been for northern hemisphere ocean +ve anomalies to spread. The only sign of hope that I can see for cold lovers is that the extremes are not at the moment quite as acute as last year in certain key areas. Unfortunately the eastern seaboard and mid-Atlantic are well above average, and this is a very poor sign for the winter. The GIN corridor, all important, is slightly less above average than last year.