[Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013]

So Jackone; what do you think the chances are of this forecast possibly changing within the next few days or do you now think Glastonbury is set for an (at least) mostly dry year?

[Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13]

The Gfs 06z shows high pressure ridging in from the southwest next week with the southern half of the uk becoming generally settled and pleasantly warm after the much cooler and more unsettled weekend, not as settled in the north next week but fine at times, the weather pattern becomes fairly mobile with high pressure to the south of the uk but occasionally unsettled across n.ireland & scotland with more exposure to atlantic lows passing quickly eastwards to the north of the BI but at least the PFJ is up near iceland, further into FI the azores/atlantic anticyclone begins to take control across many areas but remains centred just to the west, we really want to see the high migrate to the east to enable much warmer continental air to drift north but towards the end of the run it looks fine and pleasantly warm with temperatures into the low 70's F.

 

As for the next few days, it's only the southeast corner of england which will have the continental heat and highest humidity, 25c today in and around london and after a very muggy night with a few storms, tomorrow becoming very warm/hot with temps reaching 27-28c but away from the southeast hot zone, temperatures nearer 22c but even that will feel warm and humid. Wednesday night it looks like thundery rain will become widespread across england & wales and continue for most of thursday, there could be some local flooding if the rain persists for many hours or even flash flooding during any intense thunderstorms.

So currently looking positive for Glastonbury weekend?!

[Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13]

Hi Shae,as an example of how accurate the GFS is at t240,below is today's actual chart and alongside is what it predicted 10 days ago.

 

today..gfs-0-6.png  10 days ago..gfs-2013060612-0-240.png

 

 

Never trust any operational run at that sort of timescale unless its showing a screaming easterly with minus 20 uppers!  

Thanks! Makes me feel a lot better about how bad it is showing at the moment over the time of Glastonbury!

[Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13]

Not at all, and any other model too! Go out to T+96 as more reliable ,but even that is pushing it!  

Ah good! Only just learning how to actually understand the different models and will be relying on them when it comes to knowing what kind of weather is expected for Glastonbury:) Very glad it's going to change as I don't think it's looking very good at the moment!

[Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13]

is the GFS chart generally accurate at t240 or can I expect it to change a lot within the next 10 days?

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

At the moment what does it look like the weather will be for the 5 days throughout Glastonbury festival? (26th June - 1st July)

[Summer 2013]

What do people think the weather is likely to be like at the end of June/early July? (specifically Glastonbury weekend - I know there's a thread dedicated to this but not as many people post there as here). From what I've read on here it seems a lot of it will be dependant on whether the jet stream stays south or moves north within the next few weeks, but what do you think the chances of it moving/staying actually are? Does it look as though it's likely to become more settled by the end of next month or not, and what was the weather like at this time in a year where we had a good summer (e.g. 2006)?Thanks:)!