crikey

Whoops sorry. I meant the De vries cycle Like many other weather/climate scientists he is predicting much colder NH winters for the next ~20 years. The timing of this change fits very well with the ~200 year de Vries solar quasi-cycle… 1410-1500 cold – Low Solar Activity(LSA?) – (Sporer minimum)1510-1600 warm – High Solar Activity(HSA?)1610-1700 cold – (LSA) (Maunder minimum)1710-1800 warm – (HSA)1810-1900 cold – (LSA) (Dalton minimum)1910-2000 warm – (HSA)2010-2100 (cold???) – (LSA???)

Pier Corybn predicts global cooling has commenced and will continue for a number of decades I expect he is referring to the 200 yr Gleisberg cycle? currently commenced a downward cycle I found this link here http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-2/comment-page-1/#comment-55483 He explains that jetstreams in the Maunder and Dalton minimum contracted south during these minimums and brought extreme cold spells to the mid altitudes in the Nth hemisphere. He is not surprised that this jet stream change is happening now. He says it will continue or be predominant.

Change of heart by the MET OFFICE?? What are their reasons for their change in forecast? Any information on this forum? or MET OFFICE? Major change in UK Met Office global warming forecast http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/

BftV says "There does seem to be a good correlation between the two (+0.43), but something else in the background is driving things upward. So if global temperatures don't start dropping (at a statistically significant rate) soon, will you be surprised? --------------- Re: the correlation value.. According to wikopedia. The AMO index graphs are often detrended and the AGW signal is removed? I think that the AMO oscillation on your graph uses a detrended AMO and so will not climb with global temp' Is that how you see it? I think the idea of de-trending , is to reveal the AMO cycle in its simplicity as a quasi - 60-70 yr cycle So would need to overlay raw AMO ( untrended) on untrended Global temp data.? As SST 's have risen in the Nth Atlantic up until 2009? , the AMO graph should show that? This graph posted by 'sparticel' shows the un-trended AMO l believe. It shows the AMO increasing as do the global temps' I agree there is a variable other than AMO which is causing an incline. Some theories -another cycle with longer wavelength ( 116 yr, 196 yr ..etc) - background forcing of base temp by AGW's -geomagnetic flux increase ( solar) - planetary/lunar tidal force or combos of the above -------------- you ask if l will be surprised if global temps will not drop statistically significantly According to AMO cycle and how the historical global temp record has responded to the AMO cycle a period of decline similar to past hiatus periods is imminent and yes l would be very surprised. if the hiatus stopped now. The past declines were short lived at about half phase of AMO. Around 15 yrs How may years are required for statistical significance? Notice the downward phase has a smaller rate of decline than the upward trend which had a higher RATE of temp' increase. The upward phase is stronger than the downward phase. Why? The net effect is warming!! For global temps to reverse and decline , the AMO must stay longer or be stronger in the downward phase of the AMO . According to past patterns of AMO and global temp from the data you provided an hiatus of 15 yrs is due and then intuitively the upward cycle would resume. From the perspective of cycle analysis only. We have reached modern maximum around 1992 -2004 and are on a downward cycle ( 21 yr, 60 yr 196 yr and 200 yr!!) together. Constructive interference of at least 4cycles We are at the door of major climate shift from the perspective of cycle analysis Bigger in magnitude than the mid 70's climate shift The theory of AGW will be tested to the max' under these forcing influences I have a personal view and that the 200 yr and other longer cycles are more powerful forcing agents than C02 ppm.

BftV..Firstly a few notes on how the AMO is measured for those new to the topic and thanks for your interest "The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a fluctuation in de-trended sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. It was identified in 2000 and the AMO index was defined in 2001 as the 10-year running mean of the detrended Atlantic SST anomalies north of the equator. There is a significant negative correlation with US continental rainfall with less rain during a positive AMO index. (H.A. Dijkstra, "On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Netherlands, 2005 Wikipedia on the AMO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation gives some indication of when the AMO wil turn negative quote "Assuming that the AMO continues with its quasi-cycle of roughly 70 years, the peak of the current warm phase would be expected in c. 2020,[13] or based on its 50–90 year quasi-cycle, between 2000 and 2040 (after peaks in c. 1880 and c. 1950)" and from the above statement , they refer to when the AMO index reaches zero anomaly and is heading down. ----------------------- Surly Bonds data is indicating an inflection point and downward trend of Global surface temps from 2005 and that may be a hint that the AMO has peaked and on its way down. According to the last 2 cycles global air temp / AMO? . The cycle length from the diagram l have posted below was 62 yrs and 64 yrs That is from Maximum Peak to peak from another starting point From zero anomaly to zero anomaly. The cycle is far more difficult to quantify as it moves from neutral , pos , neutral to negative However if using that approach 1927 to 1998 yields a cycle of = ~ 67 yrs Keep in mind the AMO is not a pure sinusoidal wave and is quasi-periodic ( The frequency has a range in length of about 60 ish years) ------------ It is possible SurlyBonds identification of the global air temp ' inflection point at 2005 indicates a likely change in phase of the AMO is underway. From the previous 2 cycles . The time taken to get from Max peak to zero anomaly was about 15 yrs 1879 to 1895 took about 15 yrs and the next cycle assuming a peak in 1943. The AMO reached zero anomaly 17 yrs later So answering your question as when the AMO will reach zero anomaly trending negative direction 2005 + ~16 yrs = 2021 CAVEAT. Data sample too small.. and The current known cycles overlay ( ie .60 yr ,21 yr .200 yr etc) are ALL entering a negative phase. The AMO may be affected by all of these cycles and may create an earlier entrance into negative territory? Link to a larger snap to view details here https://picasaweb.google.com/104698633266954768357/CYCLESAndCorrelations#5895605235664361634

I agree KNOCKER. Ocean dynamics is not my favourite area of interest by any means My favourite interest in climate and weather.. is cycles. I have read widely in this area but it is an on going learning curve. I will feel at home in this thread. -------------- BtV AND SPARTICLE. I have put together the temperature rate graph that 'Sparticle' posted. This shows a decline in global temperature rate declining during the downward negative phase of the AMO see link and thumbnail below I highlighted the decline in the previous downward phase that occurred at the inflection point at 1943 and continued downward until the inflection point that commenced the upward phase at 1975 . I just find it absolutely fascinating that the change in phase is not a smooth curve but a point in time. a distinct 'flip' as it were?? The graph below l have borrowed from a talented researcher and mathematician from weather zone forum 'Surly bond' He has calculated the trends in global temp' for changes mostly attributed to the AMO Notice from 1943 to 1975 the trend for temp' decline was minus 0.37 deg C per century during this downward phase The negative phase from 1897 to 1909 was a downward trend of minus 0.97 deg C per centuy ( much steeper) and negative phase since 2005 He has calculated the inflection point for the current downward phase as 2005 and with a very small amount of data( 2005 -2012) he has calculated we are on the downward phase at a rate of minus 0.44 deg C/century There is a risk this rate of decline may get steeper as the 200 yr cycle commences a downward phase currently as well and as you all may be aware another Dalton / Maunder phase is muted by some solar researchers. Here is a link to my pictures to see a larger version of the thumbnail https://picasaweb.google.com/104698633266954768357/CYCLESAndCorrelations#5895535698714271410 -------- new IPO research BTV . I did see that on your forum yesterday and will have a read tonight if lcan find it again.. A nice collection of new research there. Great to keep up to date there

SPARKICLE The cycle you have identified is the AMO ( Atlantic multi-decadal cycle) The AMO is a major cycle because it best follows the global temperature cycle The hiatus periods in global temp' follow the AMO cycle very well You would be correct in saying we have reached a Max' around 2000 and are at the summit or stalling point of this cycle As you predict , a downward trend in global temperature would be expected for the next 30 yrs Some cycle researchers like Qian and lu (2010)believe 2000 was a max' of a number of cycles and that we have reached the modern millennial warm peak and we are in downward cycle As you can see from your trend line .Another larger cycle potentially overlays the AMO and has contributed to global warming or alternatively AGW I am of the belief that a larger cycle is superimposed on the AMO and may have maxed as well at 2000 Maybe a larger cycle like the 1600-1800 yr cycle has been in play ( constructive interference) The THC (thermo-haline circulation) also follows a 60 yr ish cycle and other variables like sea surface height anomaly also exhibit a ~60 yr cycle

Here is the time series of inflow into Melbourne Dams/water storage 1910 to 2012 published by Melbourne water, http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/water_rWeeport.asp?bhcp=1 The drought of 1997-2009 in VIC was obviously the worst for inflow in 100 yrs of data since 1915 Our desalination plant in Wonthagi VIC was planned during this time as the low rainfall was expected to continue and population expand However the plant was finished after the rains finally came. We had some mighty floods in 2010and dams quickly filled.. Melbourne rate payers have water bill increased $200a year to pay for on stand by maintenance. The de -sal' plant is not in use I do agree it was wise to build it. However both the CSIRO and governments expected it to be used immediately.. Which model told them we would enter a wet spell? I found the comment by Melbourne water interesting as the CSIRO indicated that this drought was expected and all is going to plan The CSIRO indicate the drought of the late 90'is consistent with C02 emission scenarios expected in 2050? We are currently in a wet period.. Negative PDO, Negative IPO More rain is likely I suspect the CSIRO will claim C02 credit for the dams overspilling and any weather event they can get there hands on. Having said that,. We are waiting for the snow to return! and BOM say ..."That won't happen under AGW" They hold the joker card.. my copy of this time series of Melbourne dam inflows https://picasaweb.google.com/104698633266954768357/RIVERS#5894860883517962434