matty007
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Posts posted by matty007
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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Busy because of the coronavirus?
Thankfully not. But I am afraid more people with quite mild symptoms are attending. While I understand people are concerned, this will only spread the virus further, and place more strain.
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Was a very very busy day today. Only got back just now.
Will read everything from today and reply to anything of note.-
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13 hours ago, shuggee said:
An appeal to people to remember you are reading posts from people you do not know, you do not know the background of and do not know their motivations - on a weather forum.
If there are concerns about you or loved ones dial 111, look at NHS websites and seek professional advice.
Sound advice, and can't be overstated. I am happy to talk about all things virology on this forum. It is extremely interesting and beneficial. The more we can learn about this virus, and viruses in general, can only be helpful.
However, I would say to anyone that I cannot give personal medical advice, unless very very basic and vague. This would be unwise, and immoral. I do not have your medical history, your lifestyle details, your general health, and I am not in contact with you.
For anything about your own personal health, it is imperative you see your own GP. Indeed, the majority of those with this virus will present mildly and not need a GP, but if you do have more severe symptoms, or preexisting medical conditions that place you at higher risk, you MUST see your own GP and not look for advice on the net.
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Never thought I'd see the day when prisoners were set free en-mass to contain a virus. Just how bad is it in Iran?
Coronavirus: Iran frees 85,000 prisoners to combat spread of COVID-19
NEWS.SKY.COMIran has temporarily freed about 85,000 prisoners in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus, a judiciary spokesman in the country...Likely millions are infected.
The recorded cases of 14,000 are so low it's not even funny. -
Can we ever say that this virus was ever containable? Probably not.
The only time it was somewhat possible is when cases of pneumonia spiked in Wuhan before the virus was discovered. Did the doctors act fast enough in regards to thinking outside the box as to what was causing it? We can't know for sure. If they acted sooner, it possibly could have been contained, but that is always easy to say in hindsight. And given that this virus spreads so quickly, and quietly, it may have been impossible to act fast enough anyway.
It sounds insensitive, but mother nature will always throw you a virus that seems tailormade for mass infection with no chance of containment. I am a firm believer that the 1918 Spanish Flu originated in Kansas. The patient zero (a chef) awoke with symptoms, likely after handling infected chicken, and by dinner time the following day, a whole army base was infected. It could NEVER have been contained.
We have been dealt with many a nasty illness, but this one certainly is nature's way of throwing us a dillema, which it seems to do on average, once a century.
Given all of what I just said, I personally believe this virus to be virtually impossible to contain. Lockdowns will reduce the cases for a time, but there are still many cases circulating. It will resurface. It is simply too contagious and widespread.
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Just now, Sky Full said:
WARNING - CONTROVERSIAL POST ALERT! I can't help thinking that the policy of protecting the NHS above all else may be wrong if by doing that substantial numbers of businesses throughout the whole country are brought to their knees by the enforced self-isolation of the work force. This would leave the country in a very poor economic state for years to come.
Perhaps it would be better simply to let everyone carry on as normal and only those who contract the virus stay at home for a couple of weeks until they recover. A majority of the population takes more than two weeks off for holidays anyway so this couldn't bring commerce to a halt on its own.
The NHS seems destined to be overwhelmed by this whatever we do so we must all be prepared to be denied a hospital bed if we get this virus but it seems most people are recovering at home without serious suffering.
This is why it makes sense for only the most vulnerable groups to isolate themselves while everyone else gains immunity. I would controversially suggest that very many over 70 and those with serious or life threatening illnesses are probably not working anyway so their isolation will make little or no difference to the running of the country.
Controversial, indeed. But, most likely, the best approach. At least in my opinion.
It is always tempting to lockdown a virus, but the economic repercussions can not be overstated. Many scientists fall into the trap of believing a lockdown will suffocate the virus, and for a time, they would be correct. But in a very contagious virus-like this, the probability of a surge once things return to normal is a highly likely one. This leaves you will less people infected for a time, but then a resurgence, which can go on for years.
At the end of the day, herd immunity will be more painful for a time, but after all is said and done, it is very likely to be the fastest way back to normality.
We don't want to lose anyone, especially the elderly, but we live in a time when the moral question between economy and lives is a very difficult one. Do you lose some more lives but keep the country somewhat economically healthy? Or do you lockdown and risk years of depression. This is a major problem of living in a highly economically dependant country. Months and months of the economic downturn would be disastrous.
It's a deeply difficult moral question.
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It will be interesting to see after extensive research is done, as to whether it is the L or S strain of this virus that becomes the most prominent. The initial Wuhan outbreak was the more virulent L strain, which would somewhat explain the higher mortality, and spread. Some have been tested and many show as the S strain, but a good number do exhibit the L strain.
Which one becomes more widespread will make a huge difference to the effects.
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Just now, AWD said:
Oxford must have a lot of people with essential travel requirements as the roads are very busy still.
Like anything, it will be a gradual reduction of daily life, not all at once. One must remember that we are still a month or more away from the peak of this outbreak. Alas, the UK is one of the very few countries majorly effected that is largely carrying on as normal. Well, almost.
I have many friends who have restaurants (catering is a secondary occupation for me) and most are reporting massive reductions in profits already. Given that most of these are self-employed and have no protection over the loss of employment, and indeed, are open to debt as a result of being sole traders, this is deeply worrying.
You won't see everything, but believe me, there are major economic effects already.
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7 minutes ago, snowdog said:
This all feels so surreal at the moment. Looking out the window the sun is shining and all appears normal, but apart from the weather that’s where ‘normal’ life ends at the moment. Hubby has a cold. 99.9% sure that is all, but he has had to stay off work. He works at the local leisure centre/ gym. Time will tell whether the work place will close anyway?
I wonder when life will return to normal! No doubt in a couple of years a film will be released. It will be the Americans that save the day. Specially 2 or 3 lead characters (good looking) that manage to fix everything!
Gyms will almost certainly be amongst the first to close, I am afriad. This is what worries me most about this virus, the massive effects it will have on countless employees, and the self employed. If the governement do go for lockdowns, then they MUST subsidize everyone for lack of employment. If they don't, there is no doubt they they should be swept out of office. A pandemic is NOT the populations fault, and nobody should have to have their homes and livelihoods risked because of it.
This is emitting the fact that unfortunately, even those places that can remain open, will suffer serious lack of profits.
My thoughts and wishes are with you and your family, and everyone else's at this time.-
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Goodnight everyone.
Remember, tomorrow is a new day, and one step closer to the end of this virus. We have to take solace where we can find it.-
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Just now, Gael_Force said:
I think the production of material has been interrupted in China and every nation will be hoarding for themselves. I suspect some medicines will also be in short supply for a similar reason. This was warned about early in the outbreak but far too late to do anything about it now.
Yes.
Not only is this bad news for the health sector, but for citizens too. N95 masks are now hideously expensive, indeed too much for most. When I see people wearing surgical masks, I want to stop and tell them that they are so ineffective with viruses such as this, but I don't want to be rude. N95 masks are what people need.
If China doesn't have an adequate supply, there is nothing we can do. Not only that, and perhaps more worrying, is that we could possibly have a shortage of antibiotics too. Very bad news if you have to treat bacterial pneumonia due to Covid.
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15 hours ago, TomSE12 said:
Hi matty,
Very worrying reading your comments regarding a "Cytokine Storm" being linked to Coronavirus.
My Wife suffers fron the Auto-Immune disease Psoriasis and also works as a Senior Carer in a Residential Care Home. Her Employers won't allow the Carers to wear a Face Mask, as it frightens the Residents. Crazy!!
Last Friday she had to give a Resident, Personal Care. Later that Evening, this Resident was carted off to Hospital by a Paramedic in full Hazmat suit. Very worrying.
On another personal note, my Son is in the advanced stages of Huntingdon's Disease (inherited from his Mother, my first Wife). His Mother, contracted Pneumonia following a Flu like illness, and sadly but invitably, passed away. She had been suffering from HD for 21 Years. I'm very concerned that the same fate could befall my Son should he catch the Coronavirus, as he is now very frail.
On another personal level, my Brother-In-Law is married to an Italian lady whose Family hail from a Town, S.E. of Naples. On Saturday, a Relative of hers "hosted" a Birthday Party for Relatives, Friends and Neighbours (evidently some 50 people, were present). The Carabinieri (Italian Police) broke into the Apartment Building and promptly slapped a 250 Euro fine, on all those present. Gatherings of 50 or more people are now banned, throughout Italy.
Very worrying times, personally and on a much broader scale!!
Regards,
Tom.
Hi Tom,
Sorry I missed this my friend.
Very sad to hear about your wife. Has she ever taken Enbrel by any chance? As you possibly know, this eases Psoriasis, but comes with the side effect of dampening the immune system and making infections much more likely, and severe. Psoriasis does indeed lower the immune system, but perhaps not to the extent of some other autoimmune disorders. If she is taking/has taken Enbrel, then yes, you are absoutely correct to be worried. I find that quite shocking about the masks, considering the elderly are most at risk. I am sure this may be changed soon. Mask protection is an absolute must.
It is imperative that you protect your son as much as possible. Absolutely, Huntingdon's would be a signifiacant risk factor in the case of Covid. Please ensure that hygiene is tip top. Isolate him as much as possible. Disinfect all surfaces regularly. I am so so sorry to hear your son is in this condition.
Please don't hesistate to message me again if you need to talk with someone.
My thoughts are with you Tom-
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3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:
Yes, unfortunately takes too long when the priority now is to feed the family.
Yep. Unfortauntly so. Until the government enforces an actual law that prevents this, it will be commonplace I fear.
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
My mate has just lost 20k off his pension value as it is FTSE linked.
This makes me so sad.
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6 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
My partner is a doctor there, was working today and all of last week. They initially planned to have an isolation ward but the positive cases arrived before they could properly prepare. She's been working with the patients. They've already had numerous staff with symptoms and many in self quarantine.
I knew this was true, have heard the same thing myself. It's not the doctors and nurses fault, they can only do the best with what they are supplied. However, if this is a widespread occurence, it will be no surprise to see it ravage this country, and very qucikly. We have a wonderful health service and it's a credit to this country. However, it needs to be said that we were/are woefully unprepared for a pandemic. And here it is, from a single bat, to everywhere, in a matter of two months.
I sincerely hope this changes the countries approach to viruses in the future. With the mass production and shipping of avian poultry across the world, and so quickly, a virus has always been a much bigger threat than war etc.-
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2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
They're not treating confirmed or suspected patients in DMH any differently to anyone else. No separate wards, no protective gear, nothing.
I have no words.
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3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Right - a close friend is a junior doctor near London and was v. concerned today because they're running low on protective equipment, especially masks. The situation sounds dire already.
Considering I know of doctors who have worn N95 masks very stringently, and yet still contracted this, the repercussions if we run out, would be dire. If you have no healthcare workforce, that is far worse than having too many patients. And we don't want reservoirs of infection spreading between patient and doctor.
Honestly, I am very surprised I haven't contracted it yet. Even with protection. It is highely contagious.
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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I'm thinking though that celebs are far more likely to catch it than the general public per number. Most travel far more and have a more international life style, so are more likely to meet a super spreader. They also tend to meet a large array of people in general such as fans, etc. So I'd wager them, along with sports stars and to an extent political figures are all at an enhanced risk.
Probably quite true, so I redact that statement. I can say with absolute certainty however, that 50,000 is a VERY conserative estimate. Iran has 14,000 'confirmed' cases, and yet they are already building burial pits. Most of the Iranian governemnt has contarcted the virus too.
Quite honestly, Iran is probably in the millions of cases by now.-
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What I can tell you is that the stock levels of N95 masks are VERY low. At this rate, it will not be long before many healthcare workers are easily exposed to this virus.
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1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:
As far as I can see from the published research, this is not true.
Children are just as susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 as adults, and while they don't suffer as badly as adults, many still display mild symptoms.
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf
There's no evidence to suggest children shed less virus than adults.
The data is limited, and very contradictory. Basically, until we have a lot more, we can't say for sure
All I can say is that I am yet to see a single case of childhood Covid, and I have heard that some families have had it, yet the child remains uninfected, or has very very low viral load in the nasal passages, probably making it unlikely to spread.-
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22 minutes ago, Beanz said:
Where did you hear that?
Everything I've read suggests a vaccine could be developed and ready for human use by the end of the year, but to be available for distribution in any real quantity will take a lot longer.
I wouldn't bank on being able to get your hands on a vaccine if you're a fit and healthy person below the age of 70, for quite some time. It'll be restricted for the very vulnerable at first.
Yes.
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26 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:
Or that so many 'celebrities' spread themselves widely.
Puns aside the numbers are probably huge, which of course lowers considerably the death rate.
You're probably talking over 500,000 by now, honestly. And that will double weekly.
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5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:
What was I saying about there being a run on the supermarkets tonight?
This is my local Sainsbury's in Nantwich, Cheshire East.
That is shocking, frankly.
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If the governemnt is going to go the route of major lockdowns (still not that likely) than they absoutely HAVE to subsedise those many people who can't work from home, and are self emplyed. They have to ensure that everyone is still able to pay rent, and buy food.
If they don't do that, the country would go to ruins and the effects would last many many years, and not simply a year or less from the actual virus itself.
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COVID-19 Pandemic
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
This is woefully incompetent.
People must understand that if they work within a care home, which houses many elderly people, and the very people who are most at risk, they MUST take every precaution to not infect those elderly people. In the case of this virus, it is not imperative you wear masks for your OWN protection, but to protect the elderly.