Vorticity0123

That indeed would be most likely. With such huge amounts of energy involved in the process, such systems could perhaps even be able to modify their own paths. This is perhaps one of the most beautiful cyclones I have ever seen. And the best is that nobody is harmed by this magnificent, but also destructive, creature of mother nature.

New invest (96E) active in the EPAC, with a decent chance to develop. The area is currently disorganized, with a fair amount of convection near the center, but no clear low level circulation apparent: Current models forecast a wobbly and slow track toward the northeast: Last few runs, the GFS intensified this system into a hurricane, though the last run seems to have backed off in developing this system. Above picture shows this could be caused by wrong initialization, given the erroneous GFS track (red) seen in above picture. Pressure chart of the GFS 00z run at T132 shows 96E being close to a hurricane. The EC also develops this system into a strong TS. Shear is currently low over the system (about 10 knots), while the vorticity at the different heigts still seems to be somewhat elongated and poorly defined. There is also abundant moisture near the system. Concluding, there seems to be enough model support for 96E to develop into a potent TC, but it will likely take a while before this system has become a TD. So it will most likely take some time before the fate of this system becomes more clear. Sources: http://tc.met.psu.edu/ http://dutch.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201396_model.html?MR=1 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

If these values are true, then this would be the first typhoon in a long time (I don't know exactly how long) to reach a pressure below 900 mb. Interesting to note is that Francisco took many wobbles in its track after its northward turn, with directions varying from north-northeast to northwest. Is it the TC itself that causes such wobbles in its track, or is it the surrounding environment? Last loop shows a more steady track of this mighty typhoon. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/flash-vis-long.html

This is indeed a potential cat.5 super typhoon, with it experiencing very favorable conditions for many hours. Another indicator that continued rapid intensification is likely, is that there is currently (to my eye) no sign of an ERC to occur shortly (see below). Link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml Such images of other TC's are available on the above link. This loop also shows that in the last few frames, the eyewall has become more pronounced, indicative of intensifying cyclones.

Some nice footage from Wipha: This image shows nicely the extratropical transition of Wipha, and how the center moved just to the southeast of Japan. This loop displays how a huge moisture plume gets sucked to the north along with Wipha, to be brought toward Alaska. Source: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/date/2013/10/15

Nice to hear! It indeed is a very useful site for TC information. This environment seems to have much resemblance to a "perfect environment", with the shear very low on its track for perhaps at least 72 hrs: This map shows the shear tendency over the past 24 hours, with the actual shear level (not shear direction). There is also abundant moisture ahead of Francesco (unlike the Atlantic most of the year), as shown in the water vapor pressure below: So there doesn't seem any reason for Francisco to stop intensifying right now, especially since an eye feature is already forming. The only question right now is: how strong will this possible monster get?

Francisco might have become a typhoon already, looking at current satellite picture and satellite intensity estimates ranging from 51 tot 72 knots. This could mean that a rapid intensification phase has already begun, and conditions are ripe for further development, given the low VWS, (less than 5 knots), and warm SSTS. Let's hope this system won't give too much of an impact to the already soaked Japan Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=26W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

What also seems interesting to this loop, is that there is continuously some dry air present near 10 N, 20W. Could it be that this dry air is ingested by the tropical waves, and then being taken with the waves to the Caribbean, thus interfering with development? There does seem to be an overall lack of cyclone activity, as the East Pacific also hasn't produced a major hurricane yet. The west-Pacific is currently very active, but before October it also seemed to become a below-normal season. So perhaps there could be some global link in the lack of activity?

Interesting read. Much research has to be done to help getting a better understanding of this possible multidecadal cycle. Another interesting article discussing the same subject is from a blog on weather underground. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/the-lack-of-atlantic-hurricanes-the-saga-of-low-relative-humidity-con The article states that there might be a link between low RH's in the Main Development Region and low RH's in the Southern Hemisphere (mainly in the South Atlantic). I don't know if this is well-known science or new, but it would be interesting to find out wheather the link between the low RH's has anything to do with the possible cycle of dust coming from Africa. I'm new here, so please accept the possible bad grammar!