iapennell

I get that : The same is true of the forecast pressure -charts on Meteociele, the French site and those produced by the Met Office. Even then, there are differences, because they will use different models and the Met. Office uses it's own very powerful super-computer capable of billions of calculations per second to run it's own predictions. Even then, the UK Met Office will only post predictions based on a mean ensemble of dozens of runs. Even then, as you will know, they still do not always get it right. In making predictions beyond a month one can only go by the influence of large-scale parameters that are liable to persist over the course of months ahead, such as sea-surface temperatures over different regions, the Sunspot Cycle, ENSO and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. Even with their powerful super-computers organisations like the Met Office cannot reliably predict the weather more than a month out and so we have to fall back on how the large-scale parameters influence prevailing weather conditions based on sound meteorological principals. This is what I do when I make seasonal predictions, but I would not say this infallible, because even the large-scale parameters can change in unexpected ways over two or three months (even though they are the most reliable factors to base a seasonal forecast on). A recent example of this is the QBO, which was due to go into it's Easterly Phase this summer, but something disturbed it earlier this year and so it remains (quite strongly) Westerly. My understanding of the fundamentals that drive our weather, and the state of these fundamentals, does not at this moment in time convince me that recent blocking-highs over Scandinavia will feature heavily through this winter, though I am expecting some spells with cold dry and frosty weather due to high-pressure over Europe in January /February. I am not oblivious to what the main meteorological outlook sites are showing and do factor them into the start of my forecast period as the Winter draws close. However, one cannot go by them more than a month out. Believe you me, I have got my hopes up in the past when Wetterzentrale has shown cold northerlies bringing hard frosts a fortnight out, only to get my hopes dashed as the time drew near for the hoped-for October cold spell to happen! I hope this helps to clarify my stance on the major prediction sites.

Is that really necessary? Just so you know, I have been educated to degree-level in meteorology. Thanks.

@Nick L, There certainly seems, from a number of models now, to be hints of something drier and colder as we go into November. However, there are certain fundamentals such as the warmth of waters to the north of Britain, the fact that Eastern Canada and Greenland become very cold as we go into November (strengthening the baroclinic gradient between the North Atlantic and Greenland /NE Canada) and the QBO being in a Westerly phase that lend support to strong Westerlies associated with deep depressions crossing the North Atlantic. The NE Atlantic has been unusually warm this Autumn and on that basis, anticipating a stronger baroclinic gradient developing across this region going into Winter, is the basis of my prediction for November to be wet and windy, particularly for Scotland and NW England. The QBO was in a Westerly Phase (mean wind-speed from the West of over 10 m/s at 30 mb over the Equator) in September and this is a strong indicator of the prevailing winds to come over the North Atlantic into NW Europe a few months down the line. However, there has been a good deal more high-pressure over Scandinavia than I anticipated for October 2016 when I made my Autumn prediction, and early November certainly is looking like it could well be drier and colder than I first predicted. I notice that the Arctic sea-ice extent is at a record low for late October and unusually high temperatures have occurred over the European Arctic. If the Arctic is unusually warm over a wide area this would filter through to the upper atmosphere over the Arctic, raising Arctic 500 mb thickness heights and reducing the baroclinic gradient on the periphery which could reduce the intensity of depressions and allow blocking-highs to form over Scandinavia. The rapid increase in Eurasian snow-cover noted elsewhere on this Forum would aid the rapid development of a stronger (and more extensive) Siberian High: It is possible that these developments have aided the persistence of a strong blocking-high (with central pressure at times at 1050 mb) over Scandinavia this month. The fact that the ENSO Cycle is moving towards La Nina is also supportive of weaker Westerlies in higher latitudes and this may well have assisted the persistence of high-pressure over Scandinavia. An extensively warm Arctic can lead to weaker atmosphere temperature gradients between it and mid-latitudes and that would drive weaker depressions, cause weaker Westerlies and allow blocking-highs to form over higher-latitude continents. However if the Arctic interior still gets very cold whilst sub-arctic waters are several degrees warmer than usual a strong baroclinic zone will still occur, only in higher latitudes than normal. This would prohibit high-latitude blocking-highs. Warmer than usual surface waters warm the air above it, causing it to expand, and that causes lower pressure (other things being equal). Another factor opposing the persistence of relatively weak Westerlies that would allow cold dry weather to occur and persist over Britain is the fact that the NE Trade Winds will be strengthening as North Africa, southern Asia and the USA cool and strengthen the subtropical high-pressure belt over them as a result: This adds Westerly AAM to the Northern Hemisphere general circulation at a higher rate and this leads to a need for a correspondingly greater sink for this Westerly AAM elsewhere. As this is likely to become the case soon there would have to be something pretty good to ensure we get cold dry November weather. At present I am far from convinced we have the right sea surface temperatures north of Britain, nor the right wind-direction high above the Equator to ensure we have a blocking-pattern capable of resisting the inevitable increase in Westerly momentum of the upper air that is soon likely to happen.

Met Office shows south-westerly winds for the next few days, esp over Scotland/North! There is a hint of something drier with some frost next week but southerlies returning later. Nothing to get too excited about as yet, though I am a tiny bit more optimistic about night frosts in November than I was a fortnight ago. I'll not say more than that though!!

Finally got down to 0C with me at 410 metres above sea-level early yesterday morning. Technically this is not an air-frost but my manageress from work had trouble de-icing her car and everything was white! Still had to wait until 25th October to get this cold so my prediction was not far out. And most folk on this Forum still have not recorded air frost as yet

The Ferrel Westerlies are back, now as we draw to the end of October. Much as I suspected they might be and going into November looks set to be wet and windy. The BBC long-term outlook for November suggests high-pressure will often be close to Britain during the month but that they still expect frontal passages and, whilst they believe that high-pressure will result in fog and frost at times, they are not expecting anything out of the ordinary for November. Check out the latest longer-term outlook charts on Wetterzentrale and the BBC Outlook for the month ahead. There is high-pressure over Greenland but also pressure looks set to be lower over Scandinavia leading to a spell of north-westerlies but mild southerlies return by the 10th November (Wetterzentrale)

I tend to use the charts along with my own understanding of the large-scale meteorological influences on our weather (and how anomalous sea-surface temperatures, where these are and macro-scale influences like the QBO) to gain an insight into what it is liable to do in the next fortnight to a month. Further into the future I take less notice of models and go with what long-range outlooks based on macro-scale temperature, pressure and wind would suggest. I like cold winters, myself. However if sea-surface temperatures are well above normal around Britain going into winter, warm seas in high-latitudes north of Britain are in place to fuel winter storms when strong baroclinic gradients get established over them and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation is Westerly I would not predict a cold winter, not even when there is extensive snow-cover early in the season over Russia (as is currently the case). Warmer than normal seas around Britain would have a warming effect on any cold airstream trying to reach Britain (as one might note from the moderating effect of the North Sea on easterly winds crossing it recently). The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (wind-patterns high over the Equator) also gives a strong hint of what to expect in a few month's time over Britain. Average speed and direction for September 2016 was 10 metres per second, Westerly at 30 mb over the Equator [If it was 20 metres per second, Easterly (as sometimes has happened in the past) I would be a lot more optimistic about prospects for cold in the coming winter; sadly that is not so]. The increased snow-cover over Russia this month ought to give grounds for hope; however if the Circumpolar vortex strengthens (due, perhaps, the westerly QBO) a strong cold-air high may well form over Siberia (due to increased snow-cover reflecting the little solar input and enhancing seasonal cooling there), but a strong Atlantic flow could still prevent this high pushing westwards and bringing very cold air to western Europe. I don't think the North Atlantic flow will be as strong as last winter but with the current macro-scale developments I cannot see how we are going to get more than a week or so of frigid Russian airstreams and I cannot see them being very cold over Britain if (as seems likely) North Sea temperatures remain warmer than normal through the winter months. If you want a Winter to go by, then I would suggest 2004/2005 but with a somewhat colder and drier January than occurred that winter. We waited until February before a blocking-high over the far North Atlantic delivered a week of strong bitter easterly winds and blizzard conditions over much of the country; the earlier part of that winter was (as some of you may recall) was mild although a number of locations in England had a White Christmas.

South-westerlies back next week. Pity for all those poor souls (a good number of us) who were hoping for a frost out of these easterlies and all they got was low strato-cumulus forming on the hopeful? nights when the Scandinavian high extended ridges towards the UK; tantalisingly cloud would often form in the evening where I live and clear out about 9 am having thwarted another possible-cold night!!!! : There'll now be no chance from next week. Another naff autumn when one has to wait until November for an air frost. Interestingly, I have done some calcuations of average extreme minima for October where I live near Nenthead (at over 400 metres up) in the North Pennines, covering the last few decades and these are the numbers. 1) October Extreme Minimum Average 1980's= -2.6C 2) October Extreme Minimum Average 1990's= -3.2C 3) October Extreme Minimum Average 2000's= -1.3C 4) October Extreme Minimum Average 2010's (so far)= -0.2C (will be 0.2C if, in October 2016, we don't get below the extreme minima so far this month of a pathetic 2C!!). Global Warming sucks!

Again the cloud moved in over the North Pennines, nothing below 4C. Quel surprise!! Too many blooming Christians praying against the frost to preserve their precious dahlias, I say!!!

Isn't the North Sea a nuisance! We could have had some lovely clear frosty nights and crisp sunny autumn days with all these easterly airstreams over the last three October weeks were it not for the influence of the warm North Sea butting cloud-producing moisture and warmth into the air before it reached Britain. It's OK: I'm not going to propose one of my grand geo-engineering solutions to fill the North Sea with the trillions of tonnes of earth and rock required to obliterate it!!! I dunno, maybe I should !!

Icy cold pack-ice clogged seas extending south over the Norwegian Sea and into the NE Atlantic would also help encourage high-pressure to the north of Britain. This would also shift the temperature gradients vital for storm tracks into lower latitudes and this would also be good for the chances of more easterly and northerly winds over Britain: Unfortunately precious little sign of that at present!

@ bobbydog: I actually hope I am wrong and that the large block over Scandinavia that has brought easterly winds for much of the month persists- and does indeed bring something cold and frosty- in contradiction to my prediction (Wetterzentrale and now Meteociele offer some hope in that regard). That said, despite the persistent east winds it has remained stubbornly mild (even where I live in the North Pennines) and the coldest it has got to date is 2C with a slight ground-frost! Also, with low-pressure moving in to the south of Britain last week there has been substantial rainfall too. It could be something to do with the fact that the North Sea has been unseasonably warm after a warm September and also the fact that the easterlies have tended to come in from Central Europe (no further) or, if they have come from further afield, have come across from Ukraine/SW Russia and the Balkan States (none of which are yet really cold in early-mid October). As regards the North Pennines, mean temperatures have (overall) held up to a degree or two warmer than the long-term October norm for just over 400 metres up in the North Pennines. Something colder might come along before the end of the month and I hope we do get our first air-frost before November but with only twelve more nights left this month my hope for it happening is starting to wane! I don't know what the experience of most of us on this Forum is exactly, I suspect that most folk have not recorded an air frost as yet (except for a few notable frost-hollow exceptions). I know I am a little out on the expected wind-directions (I was not expecting blocking over Scandinavia- central pressure over 1040 mb- to bring easterly winds to Britain for most of October), but the mild frost-free prognosis (wetter towards the west) is not so far out- bar one or two notable exceptions like NW England being dry!! As regards the winter months I expect it to be colder (less mild) than last year and less wet but I am not anticipating a colder-than-normal season overall. January-February offer the best likelihood of very cold dry weather due to blocking in high latitudes and I am certain that there will be one or two such spells this coming season.

Dryish, for the SE of England and (possibly) East Anglia too, I agree. Here in the North Pennines it's been Wet Wet Wet (!) the last few days. IF ONLY the persistent high was near Iceland and extended a ridge south-eastwards with LOW PRESSURE over Europe (and that was in the forecasts) we would have much more exciting late October weather and going into November. Something like what happened in October-November 1993!

It probably is not going to be particularly zonal for the foreseeable future because high-pressure is still going to hang on to the east of Britain. That essentially is the worst of both worlds for lovers of cold dry weather because the block and resistence to westerly AAM is not strong enough to allow high-pressure and cool dry easterlies to persist over Britain but at the same time there is enough persistent influence of high-pressure to our east such that, with low-pressure pushing against the western sea-boards of NW Europe, Britain is trapped in between with warm moist southerlies or south-westerlies from lower latitudes which (with low-pressure to the west) bring plenty of cloud and (at times) drizzly rain. If the pressure was not high to the east then depressions could push east to the north of Britain to give much more scope for short north-westerly incursions which, with a following ridge of high-pressure- could result in frost at night and a bright cool day following. North-westerly air is often a lot clearer than southerlies when low-pressure is stuck to the west!

The French MeteoCentre surface-pressure chart predictions also show warm southerlies dominating (in the main) with low-pressure not far to the west of Britain from Monday: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=000&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=033&fixhh=1 Such a persistent pattern can only bring average temperatures above the seasonal norm with substantial rainfall across much of the country. It also means little likelihood of frost at night for the foreseeable future. This ties in with my prediction for late October-November 2016- mild, wet across much of Britain (except perhaps the SE) due to some depressions tracking further south over the NE Atlantic (as indeed some are doing) with south/SW winds thanks to high-pressure over eastern Europe. Noteworthy that the big Scandinavian Block is predicted with both the Met Office and MeteoCentre runs to have the centre of this block retreat south and eastwards into Eastern Europe/Russia, as I suspected it might. Only the Wetterzentrale (German) surface-pressure runs have the block to remain in place with possible high-pressure over Britain next week. Wetterzentrale is usually optimistic about colder drier scenarios compared to the UKMO and French model, which leads me to suggest it may place too much emphasis on upper-level (500 mb) thickness heights and underscores the effect of AAM budget considerations, which are also important: The former will be influenced by the latter and not just by pure consideration of atmospheric temperatures and seasonal cooling (and extents to which this affected by warm sea-surface temperature). There has been a lot of easterly winds over Europe (and over much of North America) over the last fortnight, westerlies over the North Atlantic have been relatively weak which is indicative of a blocked phase of the Zonal Index Cycle (pressure gradient between 35 and 55N). At such times in both autumn and winter when the NE Trade Winds in lower latitudes are stronger, especially as the QBO remains Westerly, there is an accumulation of Westerly AAM in the atmosphere over higher latitudes and this excess must find an outlet sooner or later- hence the deeper depressions moving into the NE Atlantic we now see and all that that entails: Whilst one might quite like the offerings of Wetterzentrale, one should not, perhaps, take it's offerings as gospel (especially when our UKMO and the French model does not support Wetterzentrale in it's- suggestive- crispy, dry outlooks)!.

@Matthew Wilson, Met Office charts show the south-westerlies to be returning by Monday with a period of southerlies over the weekend. Synoptics also looking much more unsettled nationwide: http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Actually got down to 1.8C on Monday morning, skies must have cleared considerably after midnight but at sunrise there looked to be considerable patchy cloud around and not any evidence of frost. Certainly, the forecast models seem to underestimate the occurrence of nocturnal cloud-cover over hills which can occur readily with relative humidities at sunset of 80% at this time of year: Even with atmospheric subsidence, what airstream reaching the North Pennines is not likely to have relative humidities at dusk of 80% at this time of year unless (possibly) the airstream has a long land-track before reaching the local area (not something that ever applies for east or NE winds). The land is usually moist after substantial rainfall in October and that certainly does not help!! I stick by my assertion that most of us (including myself at over 400 metres above sea-level in far NE Cumbria) will not be recording our first air-frost until the end of the month or even well into November: Despite the east winds we've had this is holding up.

@bobbydog I am a realist. I don't like mild wet weather in Autumn or winter any more than you do. Infact I am really disappointed that this run of easterlies we are having has completely failed to bring any widespread clear frosty nights. However, in recent autumns I too, have looked at the long term outlook on Wetterzentrale and have got my hopes up looking at modelled Arctic plunges a fortnight out only to have my hopes dashed as the model changes to continued mild south-westerly winds nearer the time. Wetterzentrale tends, in my view, to over-estimate the propensity for northerly or easterly airstreams during the winter half -year. I have often looked at this site in the past to get my hopes up when the Met Office gives a continuous mild wet and windy outlook. The number of times I have then been disappointed when the mild run shows no sign of abating is sizeable!! I therefore predict cold winter weather, not on the basis of forecast charts, but from fundamentals underpinning the expected winter weather. Cold waters to the north, expanded pack-ice, La Nina and the QBO in a fairly strong Easterly phase (not to mention the need for a quiet Sun) would be the pre-conditions I would look for in October in order to predict a cold winter. We do have the quiet Sun and a weak La Nina, but the QBO is Westerly, sea-surface temperatures north and just west of Britain are rather warmer than usual and there is just enough pack-ice in the Arctic interior to encourage strong baroclinicity adjacent the warm seas but not enough ice-cover to encourage a strong Polar High to form. I cannot predict cold winters based on those fundamentals as they are at present.

The forecast models are also quite poor at discerning the occurrence of orographic cloud-cover, which in a relatively moist flow results in nocturnal cloud-cover over high ground even when the barometer is above 1030 mb, as it has been. Well, quele' Surprise!! I awoke at 7.AM to uniform grey cloud-cover and not a trace of frost! I would have predicted that last night because once that thick deck of stratus or stratocumulus is in place and winds are light when you go to bed you can bet your bottom dollar that the cloud is there to stay the remainder of the night and act as a very effective blanket preventing surface radiation loss!

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

Absolutely lovely! Puts Fred Talbot (he of ITV GM TV) to shame!

Gavin's latest update for the Winter going for a milder than normal season again this year. Interesting that he makes reference to the weak La Nina, the Westerly phase of the QBO and sea-surface temperatures being above normal in the North Pacific. The position of the "Cold Blob" in the North Atlantic being supportive of a mild wet winter because it locks the Polar Front Jetstream into a pattern that sweeps deep depressions to the north of Britain is also interesting. These factors, along with likely Sunspot activity (which Gavin also covered), are the ones to look at in making a long -range seasonal forecast at this time of year. You can watch Gavin's prediction for the coming Winter here :

I don't know what it is about where I live at just over 400 metres above sea-level but the tendency here (despite elevation above sea-level suggesting we ought to get colder nights than the lowlands) is for cloud cover to move in on Autumn nights forecast to be cold. Accu-weather predicts a minimum of 0C for my locality but I am happy to put £££'s on the temperature not falling below 4C again as the cloud-cover remains resolutely persistent over us- not a star to be seen and my AWS remains firmly stuck on 6C!! I would so much love it to surprise on the cold -side at night at this time of year but I cannot remember exactly when that last really happened. I remain resolutely of the opinion that most folk on this Forum will not be seeing their first air-frost until the end of this month (myself included). These easterlies, which I do not believe will persist beyond next week, have not come from as far as Siberia and seem to have come across central Europe from no further than Ukraine (thus are not cold) and they seem to have a lot of cloud embedded in them. I do not hold out any hope of the first widespread air-frosts of the season coming courtesy of them for those reasons.

@BLAST FROM THE PAST. Indeed, that has been my contention that the strengthening Circumpolar Vortex later this month would dislodge the block over Scandianavia and restrict highest pressure towards central/eastern Europe with the consequence being that the prevailing wind would switch back to warm south/south-west winds. There has been excitement about the prospect of northerlies and an Arctic plunge later this month from the Wettercentral.de 384-hour surface pressure charts. I saw it too- predicted for 23rd October and I thought "Nah! That won't happen- just see!". Funnily enough that "Arctic Plunge" has now disappeared from those forecast charts and they still have high-pressure over Scandinavia. My contention remains, though that later updates on Wetterzentral.de 384-hour surface-pressure charts will have that big hipgh slipping south into Europe with low-pressure once more near Iceland and we will see no more charts showing "Arctic Plunge" for a while after that.

I instinctively went for a milder than normal October this year based on the likelihood of mild southerly or SW winds with high-pressure over Europe earlier in the month and a more unsettled end to the month. The persistent block over Scandinavia is (perhaps) a little surprising because although I hinted in my first Autumn 2016 at a short colder spell with easterlies mid-month the blocking high over Scandinavia has proved to be far more enduring. However, the main baroclinic zone remains far to the north of Britain due to the warmth of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and the northwards limit of the Arctic pack-ice and southerly winds aloft have carried unusually warm air northwards high above the NE Atlantic- no doubt helping to retain the block to the NE- but the upshot of this is the lack of cold air coming out of Scandinavia or across from eastern Europe. Furthermore, as the month progresses I do anticipate the high-pressure over Scandinavia collapsing southwards as the Circumpolar Vortex strengthens and expands southwards in response to seasonal cooling over Greenland and NE Canada. This will bring about a change to warmer south or south-west winds that will bring much more cloud to the north and west of Britain. Consequently I remain confident in October 2016 being rather warmer than usual, though probably rather drier than in my earlier forecast (particularly for northern regions). Even so, with sea-surface temperatures off Britain's north and west coasts warmer than usual the south-westerlies later will carry more moisture (and warmth) than usual and it could still get very wet indeed in western Scotland and NW England late in the month.