Bloggulator

When the term "hurricane force" is referred to here, what definition are we using? The NWS/NOAA employs the following criteria: minimum 64kt, sustained/averaged over one minute (in the Atlantic basin) In other oceanic areas covered by weather services of other nations, a more common standard is a minimum 64kt average, sustained over 10 minutes. The Beaufort scale is also used, but this confuses the issue somewhat - as "hurricane force 12"can mean either 64kt averaged over 10 minutes, or as referred in the "Weather Observer's Handbook", minimum of 64kt sustained/averaged over 1 hour. Clearly, winds of 64kt winds sustained over one hour is a very different ball of wax compared to 64kt over 1 minute. Just curious!

Not my call. Can't really say more atm.

Looks as if this will cross the UK as an elongated feature, perhaps with two discrete centers forming. Strong winds gusting to 55-60mph over the English Channel and south coast of the UK, heavy rain further to the north, especially to the north of the center. The strongest winds will probably be out over the North Sea and into the western European continent. Lets see what pans out...

There are a lot of posts comparing this potential storm to the October 16, 1987 event. I hope for everyone's sake that this is not the case: in 1987, despite shredding large areas of SE England, the area actually dodged a bullet - the core of the most violent winds tracked over NW France, up the English Channel into the Southern North Sea, missing major population centers, affecting the extreme South coast, parts of Kent and East Anglia The wind strength in the Channel and NW France was phenomenal for an extra-tropical cyclone. For examples: Pointe du Raz: 10 min. sustained wind 107mph (93kt) , highest gust 134mph (116kt) (!) The anemometer was destroyed shortly after midnight before the period of strongest winds. Penmarch: 10 min sustained wind 109 mph (95kt) (!) Quimper: 10 min. sustained 89 mph (77kt) Isle de Batz: 10 min. sustained 100 mph (86 kt) Barfleur: 10 min. sustained 80mph Royal Sovereign Lightship (English Channel) One *hour* sustained (!) 86mph (75kt) Lee on Solent (UK): 10 min. sustained 80 mph (70kt) Gorleston (UK) One hour sustained 78 mph (68kt) The lowest sea level pressure was recorded at Ouessant, NW France, at 949hPa. These are the type of figures seen in a Category 1 or 2 hurricane - except we have another difficulty here re. standards: Here in the US, our own National Weather Service (NHC/NOAA) classifies tropical systems according to sustained winds over ONE minute... not 10 minutes, r one hour. Hurricane force 12 on the Beaufort scale requires 10 minutes of 75mph+, (64kt+) If the worst weather observed in October 1987 tracked across mainland England, there would be potential for major loss of life and extreme damage to property, and probably major coastal flooding in the SW coastal areas from storm surge. Of course the figures quoted above were only experienced on exposed coastal locations, and sustained surface wind speeds are always reduced inland, especially at lower levels, on account of friction, buildings, hills etc. Not to forget, high rise buildings are at greater risk for damage... in October 1987, even in urban London quite some distance from the core of strongest winds, there was a gust of 94mph recorded at the top of a tall building. The October 16 event was also a relatively compact system compared to other mid latitude cyclones. The upcoming October 28 storm may not even materialize as forecast - it is not impossible for it to end up as merely a rapidly moving wave depression on an active cold front attached to its parent primary depression; however, as suggested by the majority of models, this could be a significant wind event. It is also not impossible that the relevant parameters could all coincide to create a worst case scenario, as detailed above. Just my 2 red cents, from the relatively (meteorologically speaking) benign Southern California coast! Stay safe!