Longshanks
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Posts posted by Longshanks
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Just a quick question - how is it that both Met office analysis and GFS models are forecasting max temps above 4degs C for North Wirral Coast - 2 degrees higher than last weeks cold spell - but yet the coming few days are being much vaunted as coldest spell of this winter hereabouts??
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Couldn't agree more with weather eaters comments. With some of the more abstruse "chancer" forecasts, this winter, that might now have proven to be (maybe?) almost based upon selling sensation to the media, that the antithesis - the views of IF (etc), are now clung to as the advocates of better and objective science - forecasting fact - being protectors of established Reason and orthodoxy - from the position of having more information than is available to most of us public - and clamping down on aspirant amateurs, as they might yet, and probably prove to be? Quite a powerful position for the professionals now to be in and fascinating to watch, in my opinion - it's been great and compelling to read posts over the last 15 weeks!
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Hi, will watch November unfold with keen interest and will look forwards to your forecast - am a fan of cold - but we are still swimming hereabouts off North Wirral coast, 6.30 in morning in darkness - without wetsuits - been very mild indeed!
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That's a great answer that I really understand! Many thanks - so about now we'd be starting to have an inkling...
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Thanks for the Reply Crewe Cold - but do still wonder if folk would have been getting edgy (or excited?) by now with those 2 winters approaching? Or, would they not yet gave raised much of an eyebrow yet - even with our current knowledges?
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Hi, first post after watching both the forums here and TWO for several years - just a quick question. Given today's understanding, and given how folk kind-of alluded to last years cold end to winter - ow early would we have now have picked up upon winters such as 47 and 63? Would folk have seen some writing on the wall by now (by the start of November )?
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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep. North Wirral - the very start of the Cheshire gap - temperatures again aren't advertised by any agency as dropping below a day time maximum temp of 4/5 degrees C on any coming day in next week? Don't know how much grandiose delusion and hope casting is involved in the clamour for registering a cold end to winter -seems more about psycho-sensitising beliefs and somatic thinkings unfortunately - hope I'm wrong.. ? Right in the firing line, we've not progressed beyond rain and a hail shower - so far. Quite bizarre stuff. Anyhow should be good conditions for wintery fell running this weekend in Wales - it's been a good season for us so far!