Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward.
[b]General Theme[/b]
There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses.
High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175316:GFS 20 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175315:GFS 20 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175314:GFS 20 06 4.JPG] [attachment=175313:GFS 20 06 5.JPG]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175329:GFS 20 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175328:GFS 20 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175327:GFS 20 12 4.JPG] [attachment=175326:GFS 20 20 5.JPG]
Rainfall Next 6 days
The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend.
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas.
[b]Summary [/b]
The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.
There has been some rain on the Glastonbury Site over the past 24 hours, luckily the worst of the rain missed the site, with conditions underfoot remaining good.
As you more closer to the timings of any forecast, you can move from the overlying synoptic pattern to more specific weather details, and as such I will from now from break down the forecasts by day for the first time, and try to give a bit more detail, although I will keep the weekend a bit more "broad brush" for the time being.
[b]Overview[/b]
A few more showers are possible on site today but after this pressure slowly building up from the south west and remaining dry with the outside chance of a shower on Tuesday, but not amounting to anything.
[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has edged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030mb, The odd shower is possible into the afternoon according to GFS however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Temps are expected to be in high teens/low 20s, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds NW over Glastonbury, perhaps veering W later, pressure again expected to be aorund 1030mb. Even though High Pressure is expected, a weather front is embedded within the High Pressure. The heaviest of the rain associated with it is forecast for Northern parts of England and Scotland with only some patchy rain is expected for Glastonbury. At this moment, timings are changing from run to run as is the extent to which it will push south. Currently with the best of bright or sunny weather in the morning, with more in the way of cloud later in the day together with any patchy precipitation for Glastonbury.
Temps are expected to be around 18-20c.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to still be close by, with pressure around 1025-1030mb, wind between a W to NW direction. The general theme in the forecast for Friday, is slowly getting better after perhaps a damp start, depending how quickly "Thursdays" front passes through. Into the afternoon it looks dry or mostly dry with increasing brightness after a cloudy start. Temps could reach 20-21c into the afternoon, perhaps a bit higher if the brightness turns into late afternoon sunny spells.
(L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175665] [attachment=175672:ECM 23b 120.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175661]
[b]Weekend [/b]
Again a little bit of uncertainty over the weekend, the chances of low pressure making it rather unsettled are reducing run by run, GFS is the least keen to introduce the highest pressure with pressure around 1020-1025mb, with UKMO ridging High Pressure closer to the UK, with ECM having HP centred over the UK on Sunday (1030mb), So GFS is the most likely to be slightly unsettled, ECM the most settled, and a very decent weekend in prospect.
Although there may be the odd weather front again with NW winds, it is looking mostly dry over the weekend with decent amounts of sunshine, GFS has temps of 21c on Saturday, and perhaps even 23-24c on Sunday.
Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
[attachment=175670:ECM 23b 168.gif] [attachment=175687:GFS 23 12 5.JPG] [attachment=175678:GEFS 23b 2.png]
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 5-6mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175654] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175667] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175650] [attachment=175680:GEFS 23b 4.png]
The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, however the pressure fall late next week is quicker than before, but generally stabilising above 1020mb.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175651] [attachment=175681:GEFS 23b 3.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb, however GFS then reduces the pressure a bit before the weekend , before slowly rebuilding by Sunday, Both ECM and UKMO keep the pressure high across the uK, meaning slightly more settled conditions.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking quite decent as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Despite a bit of rain this weekend, things looking pretty good.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (6.5/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
There is High pressure to the SW of the UK and also towards the NE, however there is a mini trough towards the SW with pressure expected to be slightly below average. This is consistent with the trough expected in the South West approaches for the mid part of next week, so this may account fore the lowish overall pressure to the SW of the UK. This is definitely a concern, however these charts also allow for pressure to rise again towards the end of the month. .although concerning, pressure towards the end of the month may be slightly higher.
[attachment=173610:July 13 Pressure (6 June).png]
Again there is High Pressure to the SW of the UK and also towards the NE, but this time with slightly above average pressure for the UK.
[attachment=173611:June 13 Pressure (6 June).png]
Between the two this indicates, the UK very much between two pattern, which should allow for a mixture of weather for the UK, a typical British summer in other words.
[b]T[/b][b]emps[/b]
Both months have temps above average for much of the UK with the exception of the SE corner, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for both months, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK. However each forecast for June has seen the above average anomaly reduce so now it is only just above 0, for Glastonbury.
[attachment=173612:June 13 Temps ( 6 July).png] [attachment=173613:July 13 Temps (6 July).png]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
The CFS forecast for June has rainfall around or slightly above average in the Glastonbury area [100-110%], a bit of a higher anomaly towards the Midlands again.
The CFS forecast for July has below average rainfall for the Glastonbury areas [90%] and for areas toward the South West , but above average for the Midlands [140%], this is much better than last weeks update, but still worth baring in mind the rainfall projections would tend to concentrate rain in the Midlands, so the 90% may be slightly understated.
Unfortunately the above doesn't really give that much clarity to the situation, or real information, one way or the other.
[b]CFS Daily runs[/b]
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival ...........................................................Start / During Festival
30/05/2013 Deep Trough over UK for a week before festival.......LP to NE slowly being edged away by HP ridging up from SW.
31/05/2013 Largely settled but pressure lowering ........................Trough over UK at start, settling down again from S later
01/06/2013 HP for all of June, LP edging up on Mon 24................HP ridging in from South West
02/06/2013 LP week before remains at start .................................LP slowly edges away to NE
03/06/2013 Trough to SW UK ...........................................................Slowly weakens over UK
04/06/2013 Low Pressure in run Up ...............................................HP builds slowly from South West
05/06/2013 Trough over UK ..............................................................HP builds slowly from South West
06/06/2013 Trough over UK...............................................................Trough to NE cover most of UK, showery for SW
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date...........Temps............................................................Rainfall
30/05/2013 Yellow to Orange........................................Wet run-up to festival, mostly dry for festival itself
31/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange................................Rain at start, dry from Friday onwards
01/06/2013 Orange........................................................ Odd shower, perhaps more general on Friday, and maybe Sat
02/06/2013 Green / Yellow / Light Orange................... Rain most days, wet festival, not washout festival, but mud bath possible due to rain before festival
03/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Wet in build up, damp/wet over most of the festival, possible mud bath
04/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Periods of rain pushing east across UK
05/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Rain/ Showers in build up, drier over weekend
06/06/2013 Green / Yellow / Light Orange................... Wetish in build up, wet/damps start, drying Up
Of the 7 forecasts above, none go for an entirely dry festival, 3 go for a very wet festival, and 4 for a damp, mixed festival, Not particularly good news, but that's what the models say.
UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Saturday 6 Jul 2013:
Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Southern areas look likely to become a little less unsettled later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the times of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.
Again not the best news from the latest Met Office thoughts.
[b]Current Outlook [/b]
Currently we are in a settled spell of dry (or mostly dry) weather, which has given some decent conditions across the South West.
However it is set to turn much more unsettled from the West / South West next week.
This is the current GFS run, which tries to ridge High Pressure from the south and minimise the unsettled nature of next week.
[attachment=173627:Current Synoptics.png]
[b]12 and 15 June [/b]
[attachment=173630:12 June.JPG] [attachment=173629:15 June.JPG]
[b]18 and 23 June [/b]
[attachment=173628:18 June.JPG] [attachment=173626:23 June.JPG]
The GFS op run is drier and has higher pressure than the majority of the ensembles next week. Pressure drops next week according to the ensembles to an average of 1010mb, this steadily rises close to 1020mb by the end of the run and precipitation rates falls a little.
No question that the GFS offers a glimmer of hope for southern areas as we lead towards the Glastonbury festival.
ECM has suggested a more unsettled outlook. [attachment=173637:Recm1201.gif] [attachment=173636:Recm1921.gif] [attachment=173638:Recm2401.gif]
ECM continues to be more unsettled, but the Jet Stream a bit further north than previously suggested, with the Azores High attempting to make an appearance, could still be wet at times in the south next week though, T+240 is not a bad starting point though in the runup to Glastonbury.
[b]NOAA Upper charts[/b]
6-10 day outlook this has a trough to the SW of the UK
[attachment=173635:610day.03.gif]
8- 14 day outlook has a trough to the SW of the UK
[attachment=173634:814day.03.gif]
Both show a very unsettled next couple of days and ahead of Glastonbury we don't really want an unsettled pattern the week before, one as it would leave the ground wet but it may also start a pattern which may be hard to shift.
[b]Overall Summary[/b]
A lot of analysis tonight, which has shifted to the more reliable models. Overall not the best of news, hints of a unsettled period of weather in the run up to the festival, and for those wanting a dry festival, we want the trend of a ridging Azores High, otherwise a trend towards an unsettled festival seems likely. I think a mixed festival is the most likely at the moment, and weather like we have seen over the past week the least likely option.
Very much worth watching to see how much of an influence the Azores High has towards next weekend, this could set the pattern for Glastonbury and perhaps beyond.
Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, and if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there should be no reason for this to change.
I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.
Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the forecast.
[b]Overview[/b]
Tuesday is looking settled and dry, with some decent sunny spells.
[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030-1032mb, The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS, however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Max temps are expected to be in the range 18-20c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb. A weather front if still forecast to be embedded with the High Pressure. At this stage the continuing expectation if for the heaviest of the rain to hit Northern parts of England and Scotland with Glastonbury likely to see some patchy rain at worst possible into the afternoon, although this may change a little. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-20c.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to be slightly further out west with winds West to North West, and for the pattern to be slightly flatter than on Thursday, with pressure around 1025-1030mb. Friday is now expected to be dry according to the models, but with quite a bit of uncertainty about the cloud amounts at this moment quite a lot of cloud is expected, especially to start the day. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 22-24c, Meto say 18-19c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday.
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
The general pattern of High Pressure to our South West is agreed, beyond this not much is certain, Pressure for the Glastonbury area between models ranges from 1023-1028mb, and some have the centre of the High quite close to the UK, others halfway to the Azores. It does seem likely to be dry, with fronts probably too far north to effect Glastonbury, and temps are likely to be low to mid 20s. Some sunny spells seem likely but some uncertainty at this stage.
Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175737:UKM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175758:ECM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175747:GFS 24 12 4.JPG]
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
There seems even less agreement on Sunday's weather, the general theme of High Pressure being nearby is agreed, beyond that no real agreement, with pressure forecast between 1022-1032mb and that is not even including the ensembles. Winds are likely to be from a West to South West direction and with 850Hpa temps around 10c, it not likely to be cold. So in summary looking dry, warm with temps low-mid 20s, and the chance of some sunshine.
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 3mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
[attachment=175769:Rmgfs144sum 24 1.gif] [attachment=175776:Rmgfs144sum 24 2.gif] [attachment=175766:GEFS 24a 4.png] [attachment=175775:GEFS 24b 3.png]
The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, and not dropping the pressure so much into next weekend either.
[attachment=175765:GEFS 24a 3.png] [attachment=175774:GEFS 24b 4.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb. Thereafter ECM the keenest of keeping High Pressure closest to us, GFS in the middle with UKMO less keen on doing so.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 8/10 (7.5/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and there is no forecast reason for this to change throughout the festival period .
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
To sum up in 3 words, Dry and Warm.
It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.
This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.
This weeks forecast methods
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] - This is the last forecast to use this model
4. Prognostic Charts at 500mb from NOAA
The Pressure charts show Higher pressure areas both to the west and east of the UK, with pressure only slightly higher than average over the UK itself. Temperatures are now generally around average, and slightly above average in Northern parts of the UK with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.
In Summary pretty neutral to say the least.
[b][b]July [/b][/b]
[attachment=252229:July 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252230:July 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252231:July 15 Temps 7 June.png]
The pressure charts show Higher pressure areas to the North west of the UK and also slightly above average over the UK itself.
Temps above average generally, slightly in Southern and Eastern areas, well above average for Northern areas. Rainfall below average generally, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall around average rainfall.
[b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0]
Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June
31/05/2015 HP over UK first moving North, and then rebuilding over all parts Turning Unsettled from west with LP on top of UK for Glasto weekend
01/06/2015 HP over the UK, LP trying to edge from SE at times HP in Control over the UK esp. West parts
02/06/2015 Westerly winds with quite low pressure. HP to Azores Weak LP for festival period
03/06/2015 LP over UK to start pressure building slowly LP pressure for a time Thursday, then Pressure building over weekend
04/06/2015 HP builds up from SW HP to SW flattened out over time
05/06/2015 Unsettled to start, HP slowly building from South LP moves from west to east, HP building for late weekend
06/06/2015 HP over W to start builds initially before LP edges in from south Deep LP to start, slowly weakens over weekend
[/code][code=auto:0]
Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10
31/05/2015 Cool and unsettled SE to NW Yellow / Light Orange Showery to start, perhaps more general rain Saturday 5.0
01/06/2015 Dry warmish and settled NE to N Light Orange / Orange Mostly Dry , perhaps odd showers Wednesday 9.0
02/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Wet W to NW Dark Green light yellow Damp/wet most days 4.0
03/06/2015 Dry warm and settled East Orange / Deep Orange Mostly dry , poss. shower Friday 8.0
04/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Damp NW to W Light Orange / Orange Showery Precipitation at times 6.0
05/06/2015 Mild, wet and unsettled SW to NW Yellow / Orange Periods of rain most days, some heavy 4.0
06/06/2015 Cool to Warm, Damp and Unsettled W to SW Yellow to Deep Orange Periods of rain most day, some moderate 5.0
[/code]
The runs this week are not as promising as last week with the average down from 7.4 to 5.9 out of 10.
[b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0]
Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast
Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature
CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation
30 May Yellow -1/-0 +0/+1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -1/+1 (Gen) -2(N)/+1(S) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c (S) /+2c(NW) Light Blue/White Generally
31 May Yellow +3/+4 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Light Blue JULY +2(S)/-2(N) +1(S)/-2(N) -1c(NW)/+1c(E) +0c(SE) /+2c(NW) Blue Gen, white Midlands
1 June Yellow +1 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +2c/+3c Blue JULY +4(N)/+1(S) -0(SE)/+2(NW) -0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +1c(S) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands
2 June Yellow -3 -1/-0 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -4(SW)/-2(SE) -1/-0 -1c(S)/+0c(N) -0c(Mid)/+4c(NW) White S areas, Red Midlands
3 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands
4 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands
5 June Yellow +2/+3 -1/-0 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Red JULY +2(SW)/+5(NE) -0(SW)/+2(NE) +0c(SW)/+2(NE) +1c(SE) /+4c (N) White/Light blue SW, Red Midlands
6 June Yellow -8/-7 -5/-4 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Deep Red JULY -8(SW)/-2 (N) -4(Cen)/-2(S/N) -2c(S)/+1c(N) -1c(SE) /+4c (N) Deep Red All southern areas[/code]
No runs for June this week, for July the outcomes very varied and similar to last week in terms of averages. .
[b]4. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
link for those interested [url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php[/url]
[b]6-10 days[/b]
Shows high pressure initially for this week, but turning slightly unsettled as we move into the forecast for 12-16 June i.e. into next week
[attachment=252235:610day.03 from 1 June.gif] [attachment=252236:610day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252237:610day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252238:610day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252239:610day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252240:610day.03 from 6 June.gif]
[b]8-14 days[/b]
Shows High pressure briefly but quickly turns things unsettled, however perhaps the pressure becoming neutral, by the end of the forecast period 14-20 June.
[attachment=252241:814day.03 from 1 June.gif][attachment=252242:814day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252243:814day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252244:814day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252245:814day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252246:814day.03 from 6 June.gif]
In summary of above, turning a little unsettled after this week, however perhaps things settling down once more as we move into the run-up to the festival.
[b]Summary[/b]
The long term models not so good this week, but looking at the medium term models, unsettled next week, and perhaps a slight sign of things improving just before the festival starts.
It remains a very disappointing start to Winter for the Alps, with very little snow for the lower slopes, However the cold overnight temperatures have meant that snow cannons have been in operation, and a large number of resorts have been able to open. However the lack of snow has meant that the opening Ski races schedule for Val D'Isere have had to be moved to Beaver Creek in North America.
More details on snow amounts and general conditions available on at the Ski Club of Great Britain website. [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]
Looking at the current synoptic chart, there is High Pressure (1036mb) covering the South of the Atlantic. There is low pressure over the Greenland through to Scandinavia area, with a number of separate centres. However this is generally feeding in cold or very cold Polar Maritime air for much of this region. The UK and NW mainland Europe is in between the High Pressure to the SW and the low Pressure to the NW, with a ridge of High pressure to start, before rain pushes in from the NW later in the day. The rest of Europe (including Eastern Scandinavia) mostly mild with SW winds, but remaining cold in Russia.
[attachment=124063:Current 2nd Dec 850Hpa.png]
[b]Synoptic Progression[/b]
The previous blogs this winter have gone with full detail for 7 days, however accuracy of the charts after 5 days has not been that great, as a result, I'll give the general pattern only.
Saturday sees the whole pattern move further east, Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Western Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, and SE Europe remains under High Pressure.
Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning cooler over the UK, remaining quite mild for the Alps, the low countries and Northern France with SW winds, still cool for Scandinavia as we have a returning Polar Maritime airflow despite the SW wind direction.
[attachment=124048:2 Dec +24.JPG]
Sunday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure has formed over Greenland above a potent Polar Vortex, feeding bitterly cold winds down from the Arctic. Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, SE Europe now has pressure around 1016-1020mb.
Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, with very cold air for Northern parts, cold for Southern parts of the UK, much of Northern Mainland Europe and Scandinavia. Still though rather mild for much of France, the Alps and most of Southern Europe. .
[attachment=124050:2 Dec +48.JPG]
Monday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has again edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure remains over Greenland (1024mb) above a potent Polar Vortex. A massive area of Low Pressure (centred west of Norway 960mb) now covers most of Europe, with very cold winds on the western side, slightly milder SW winds on its Eastern Side. for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe, High Pressure now restricted to the far SE of Europe.
Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, very cold air (sub -5c 850Hpa) covers the whole of the UK and parts of the low countries. Most of Northern Europe seeing cold air (sob zero 850Hpa) including progressively the Alps more detail on the snow potential to follow below), cold or very cold for the Scandinavia, with the mild air now restricted to the far south of Europe.
[attachment=124052:2 Dec +72.JPG]
Tuesday again sees the general pattern, low pressure for most of Europe. bringing cold or very cold air from the North West. The very cold airflow cutoff for most apart from Scandinavia, but remaining cold from most of Northern and Western parts of Europe, if anything turning colder in NE areas, as the initial cold now pushes in here.
[attachment=124054:2 Dec +96.JPG]
Wednesday and Thursday sees the wind direction turn round to more of westerly direction as opposed to North Westerly direction, so turning milder for the UK and much of Mainland Europe. however signs of a further blast of colder air pushing back down across the UK initially and then for most of NW Europe for Friday, so a further chance of wintry weather. Staying very cold in Scandinavia throughout, and mild over much of southern Europe.
[attachment=124058:2 Dec +120.JPG]
[attachment=124060:2 Dec +144.JPG]
[attachment=124062:2 Dec +168.JPG]
The outlook sees the potential for High pressure to build from the South West, and perhaps move back into Euro High Territory.
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]850Hpa Summary (Noon) ,Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec +1 to +4 Generally
Sun 4th Dec +2 to +7 +2/+3 Italy, +4 to +7c Generally
Mon 5th Dec -3 to +6 -3 (North) up steadily to +6 in Italy
Tues 6th Dec -5 to +2 -5 (Austria) up steadily to +2 in Italy
Wed 7th Dec -5 to +4 -5 (Austria) to to +4 in Italy, generally milder though then recent days
Thurs 8th Dec -2 to +5 Generally +1 to +4
Fri 9th Dec -5 to +6 0 to -5 (N Alps), 0 to 3 S Austria and S Switzerland[/CODE][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec 1400m-2200m 1400m-1600m Generally
Sun 4th Dec 1400m-2800m 1400-2200m SE Switzerland, SW Austria, Higher elsewhere
Mon 5th Dec 1200m-2800m 1200m (NW), 1600-1800m generally Austria/ Switzerland
Tues 6th Dec 600m-1000m Generally, but 1000-1600m Italy
Wed 7th Dec 200m-1400m 1000-1400 (W and W Austria), lower Eastern Austria
Thurs 8th Dec 300m-2400m Local Variations
Fri 9th Dec 900m-1800m Generally[/CODE][/font][/size]
[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec 1800m-2200m Generally
Sun 4th Dec 1900m-2400m 2200-2400m Generally
Mon 5th Dec 1000m-2200m 1000m (NW), 1400-1600m generally Austria/ Switzerland
Tues 6th Dec 800m-1400m 800m (N and W), 1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland,Italy
Wed 7th Dec 800m-2000m 800m (NE Austria), 1000-1600m Switzerland and much of Austria
Thurs 8th Dec 1600m-3000m 1600m (NE Austria), 3000m SE Italy
Fri 9th Dec 800m-2600m 800m (N and W), 800-1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland, [/CODE][/font][/size]
[b]Saturday 3 December [/b]- Quite a lot of precipitation to start Saturday morning, especially for Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria and Central Italy. Snow level around 1400m. This tending to move away to SE Austria later in the day , before a more general frontal band of heavy precipitation moves into the NW alps by late evening. This continuing during the early hours, with the potential for moderate snowfalls for NW Switzerland, the Portes Du Soleil, and into Southern Germany above around 1900m, potentially 10 inches of snow in the Northern Portes du Soleil.
[attachment=124047:2 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]
[b]Sunday 4 December [/b]- The precipitation only slowly dying out during the day especially for much of the French Alps, Switzerland, the German alps, and Northern Austria. The snow level generally around 2200m without much regional variation, remaining dry over the south of the Alps. Into the evening and a cold front edges in from the north. Further heavy precipitation possible for the Portes du Soleil, Switzerland, the German Alps, and Northern Austria. Snow Level around 2000-2100m.
[attachment=124049:2 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]
[b]Monday 5 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing Monday morning and turning very heavy through through the Portes Du Soleil, a swathe of Switzerland including Wengen and Zermatt, and into Southern Germany and the far NW of Austria. Snow levels dropping as a cold front brings in colder Polar Maritime air, from 1800m on the front edge (to the SE) to around 1200m on the back edge. A wider area covering the France Alps, all of Switzerland the German Alps, and most of Austria, excluding the SE, will see some moderate precipitation.
During the afternoon the precipitation will become patchier but remain in the wider area described above, Snow Level, 800 (N) - 1800m (SE), During the late evening, patchy snow will fall to resort level for Switzerland.
[attachment=124067:2 Dec for Mon am.JPG]
[attachment=124051:2 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]
[b]Tuesday 6 December [/b]- The morning will see patchy snow for Germany and Northern Austria, mostly dry elsewhere, By evening, further Precipitation edging in from the west, snow down to around 1000m, moderate precipitation for the French Alps, Switzerland and the German Alps, mostly dry for Italy and Austria.
[attachment=124053:2 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]
[b]Wednesday 7 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing into Wednesday, and moving by morning to be centred over Switzerland and Austria, and largely dying out in Switzerland during the day with some heavy precipitation in western Austria during the day, snow level around 1200m.
[attachment=124057:2 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]
Thursday looks mostly dry at this stage, While Friday looks as if more snow may push down from the north associated with the colder plunge, but no point going into detail this far out.
[attachment=124059:2 Dec +144 Alps.JPG][attachment=124061:2 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]
[b]Summary [/b]
For the first time in months, there looks to be a probability of moderate snowfalls down to lower slope or resort levels. By the middle of next week, 25cm of snow seems very possible widely for parts of France, and Northern parts of Switzerland across to Germany, with up to 50cm in places.
There is also the chance of further snow towards the end of next week, however there is the possibility of a Euro High returning after this.
A slight change in the forecast today, in that the pattern for this week and for the weekend is now agreed between the models, so I'll do the summary here to save late duplication.
Remaining unsettled this week, with some rain expected on Thursday, however the amount of rain now expected now a lot less than previously forecast. Low Pressure now on its established southern track pushing westwards across the UK during early hours of Saturday morning with showers to follow for the rest of the weekend. Better agreement now on the pressure build up into next week, which should start to edge across early on Monday, which is a little bit slower than some forecasts were suggesting yesterday.
The model analysis whihc follows will concentrate on Festival Week/ weekend itself.
[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]
[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The 06Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly and a decent way North on Monday, meaning a mostly dry day on Monday. A ridge of High Pressure edges further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, and only the odd light shower is possible. Low Pressure looks sets to break through the block on Friday giving quite a wet weekend, although this does look a bit of a outlier compared to the ensembles.
Charts shown in order (72 Sat 22 June, 144 Tue 25 June, 192 Wed 27 June, 240 Fri 29 June)
[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The 12Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly next week, and although not as far north as the 06Hz, it should still stay day on Monday. Pressure continues to build up on Tuesday and Wednesday, although GFS indicates a few showers, but this shouldn't really amount to much. For the remainder of the festival, fronts push west to east on the top of the High Pressure, but South Western areas should escape the worst of any rainfall.
The 12Hz run shows around 9-12mm of rain for the next 6 days, this is driest forecast of this type in recent days.
[attachment=175098:Rmgfs144sum 19 1.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both reflect the reduced rainfall expected tomorrow, and show a very quick rise in pressure for next week, and although pressure does drop a bit over teh weekend , pressure gernally rmain quite high, and rainfall is is forecast to be quite low over the run.
[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The op run was bit of an outlier in terms of pressure and rainfall over the weekend.
[attachment=175100:GEFS 19a 1.png] [attachment=175099:GEFS 19a 2.png] [attachment=175102:GEFS 19a 3.png] [attachment=175101:GEFS 19a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The op run was a bit drier for tomorrow compared to most of the ensembles, otherwise it was mainly close to the ensemble mean.
[attachment=175123:GEFS 19b 1.png] [attachment=175122:GEFS 19b 2.png] [attachment=175121:GEFS 19b 3.png] [attachment=175120:GEFS 19b 4.png]
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 19th June]
[attachment=175130:610day.03 19.gif] [attachment=175129:814day.03 19.gif]
Shows High Pressure to the west of the UK in a similar fashion to the op run.
[b]ECM[/b]
[based on 00Hz 19th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. This builds steadily by Thursday, however it is forecast to flatten on Friday with the risk of some fronts from the North west over the weekend.
The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday and Wednesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. The High Pressure is forecast to flatten by Thursday with an increased risk of some fronts from the North west, with an ominous looking charts on Friday, with low pressure on top of the UK on Saturday.
[b]Summary [/b]
The risk of rain for Thursday now looks a lot less than some previous forecasts, the other meaningful rainfall expected over the weekend. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of a steady pressure rise and the start of the festival looking mostly dry and settled. Some op runs are going for more of unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.
Many runs had forecast pre festival rainfall in excess of 25mm, others over 50mm, however with current estimates of closer to 10mm, and this should not cause that much of a problem, especially given that recent on site reports have suggested that current conditions are far drier on site than at the same time in recent years. Also recent investments on site has continued to improve the drainage there. The updated Mudbath /Dustbowl rating and subsequent ones will reflect all these factors.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 5/10 Some rainfall can be expected before the festival, but probably not of the quantity needed to saturate the site
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 4.5/10 temps probably around or just below average, but pleasant enough in any sunshine
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, but there may still be a little mud around, so wellies may also be needed.
[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]
As per yesterday, I'll start by trying to find the common ground between the runs. Remaining unsettled this week, with the risk of some heavy rain on Thursday. Low Pressure now on its established southern track pushing westwards across the UK during early hours of Saturday morning with showers to follow on Saturday. Pressure slowly increasing from the South West on Sunday and into next week and this is where the disagreement start.
[based on 06Hz 18th June run]
The 06Hz op run shows quite a quick pressure build up from the South West, (this reducing the shower risk on Sunday), so that a ridge of High Pressure is over South Western areas by early hours Monday. While the High Pressure is never in complete control, it keeps weather fronts away to the north and the start of the festival looks dry and mostly settled. There is an increased risk of fronts making more of an impression towards the weekend, but any rainfall not looking heavy at this stage.
Charts shown in order (96 Sat 22 June, 168 Tue 25 June, 216 Wed 27 June, 264 Fri 29 June)
[attachment=174906:GFS 18 06 1.JPG] [attachment=174905:GFS 18 06 2.JPG] [attachment=174904:GFS 18 06 3.JPG] [attachment=174903:GFS 18 06 4.JPG]
The 06Hz op run shows quite a quick pressure build up from the South West, (this reducing the shower risk on Sunday), so that a ridge of High Pressure is over South Western areas by early hours Monday. While the High Pressure is never in complete control, it keeps weather fronts away to the north and the start of the festival looks dry and mostly settled. There is an increased risk of fronts making more of an impression towards the weekend, but any rainfall not looking heavy at this stage.
The 06Hz run shows around 12-14mm of rain for the next 6 days.
[attachment=174902:Rmgfs144sum 18 1.gif]
[based on 12Hz 18th June run]
The 12Hz op run shows a slower pressure build up from the South West, with a ridge of High Pressure mid Monday, this ridge holds for the start of the festivals and looking dry until Thursday. Fronts a bit further south than the 06Hz run, and some rainfall is possible on both Thursday and Friday, but not looking that heavy at this stage. However a deep area of low pressure is forecast for the weekend, giving the potential of further heavy rain.
The 06Hz run shows around 22-30mm of rain for the next 6 days. So despite largely similar synoptic pattern over the next few days, the 12Hz run is wetter, most of this relates to the expected rainfall this Thursday.
[attachment=174893:Rmgfs144sum 18 2.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[based on 06Hz 18th June run]
Pressure remains steady this week and drops over the weekend, however despite rainfall totals not looking that massive generally, although the op run was drier than the ensemble mean. Next week sees a quick rise in pressure in line with the op run, and remaining mostly settled until the weekend when pressure drops back once again, most ensembles though go for a mostly dry festival.
[attachment=174899:GEFS 18a 1.png] [attachment=174898:GEFS 18a 2.png] [attachment=174901:GEFS 18a 3.png] [attachment=174900:GEFS 18a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 18th June run]
Pressure remains steady this week and drops over the weekend and more than the 06Hz run suggests, rainfall totals are generally a bit higher than the 06Hz run , and the op run is in line with the mean. Next week sees a steady rise in pressure in line with the op run, and remaining mostly settled until the weekend when pressure drops back once again, and while the op run is a bit of an outlier in terms of pressure drop and weekend rain, generally more ensemble runs go for weekend rain.
[b]ECM[/b]
Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of some rain from the east this week, although this risk is less than on the GFS. Low Presure set to push in across the UK over the weekend, giving moderate rainfall to all parts.
[based on 00Hz 18th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a tenuous ridge of High Pressure developing to the west of the UK, only by Wednesday does High Pressure properly build over the UK, whihc should mean a mostly dry start to the festival, although such a pattern is quite risky in terms of potential for rainfall.
[attachment=174911:ECM 18a 96.gif] [attachment=174910:ECM 18a 144.gif] [attachment=174909:ECM 18a 192.gif] [attachment=174908:ECM 18a 240.gif]
based on 12Hz 18th June run]
By Monday, we see a healthier build up of High Pressure for southern parts of the UK, which builds over the next days into a High Pressure block, more especially for western areas of the UK. Although within this High Pressure there is worrying T (identifying trough - mini area of low pressure) enclosed within it close to Southern areas for Tuesday. High Presure looks fairly steady over western areas until the end of the run, Friday 28th June.
[b]Summary [/b]
This week now looking generally unsettled however the risk of rain heavily concentrated heavily towards Thursday, other days not looking that troublesome. This weekend will see further rain as low pressure sweeps East/South Eastwards across the UK. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of pressure building from the south west, but disagreement between models as to this extent. ECM is more promising in this regard, and next week is looking drier than this week.
Sorry to repeat yesterdays comment pre festival rain, but this weeks rain could make ground conditions saturated, and hence increase the risk of a mud bath.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 More promising. Despite GFS 12Hz run most runs are positive for next week, and ECM today quite steady in this regard.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 3.5/10 It seems very likely that there will be moderate rainfall between now and the festival commencing, quite possibly around an inch of rain, however the risk of more than that has receded, althoguh This Thursday still needs to be watched, perhaps some mud is expected but not a complete mudbath. .
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 winds from SW much of the time, and ECM goes for 850HPa temps above average.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average, but pre festival rain makes some mud on site a probability, with an increased risk at the moment of mudbath conditions.
This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
[attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG] [attachment=212740:June Temps 11 May.JPG]
This indicates that rainfall in June will be lower than average for Glastonbury with temps above average. Good News indeed, however this is still a good way out.
However I will still show last week’s version for comparison and trend analysis. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.
[b]June[/b] [attachment=212728:Temps June 10 May.png] [attachment=212729:Rainfall June 10 May.png]
The above shows the warmer than expected weather for the UK, and drier weather compared to normal, one big disadvantage of CFS is that rainfall tends to be shown over the Midlands, so it always overdoes rainfall in this area.
[b]July[/b] [attachment=212726:Temps July 10 May.png] [attachment=212727:Rainfall July 10 May.png]
July continues the warm theme, but shows the risk of slightly wetter weather than normal. Unfortunately this is a problem with the Pressure charts this week, however this should be corrected by next week.
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
CFS does a run for months ahead, and I have detailed the forecast for the Glastonbury festival from each daily run. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Daily Long Range Charts [Raw CFS]
[attachment=212733:CFS Daily.JPG]
Example Run here - [attachment=212742:Example Run Pressure.png] [attachment=212743:Example Run Rainfall.png] [attachment=212744:Example Run Temps.png][code=auto:0]
CFS Run Date obtained Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps
01 May 00Hz 06-May HP generally, LP edging up from S for weekend Dry to start, Showers over weekend Light Orange to Orange
07-May No Forecast Available
02 May 00HZ 08-May Rather unsettled throughout, but no massive LP NW Rain or Showers most days Yellow / Light Orange
08 May 00HZ 09-May HP before festival and always close to South West NW Odd showers, mostly dry for SW Light Orange to Orange
09 May 00HZ 10-May HP Start and end of Festival, LP attempts to push in midway from NW SW Light Showers at times Light Orange to Orange
Where winds is the main wind direction for the duration of the festival.
[/code]
From history these tend to be rather pessimistic, so the rather mixed picture is not too bad at the moment.
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
[attachment=212734:CFS Monthly From Meteociel.JPG]
Where z500 and PRMSL relates to Pressure, and 850Hpa and Temps 2m relates to Temps at different levels of the atmosphere.[code=auto:0]
For June
Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average)
06-May 0c to +2c -4 (S) to +6 (N) -2 to 0 -4 (S) to 0 (N) -2 to -4 +0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red / White all S uk
07-May +2 (SW) to +6 (NE) +4 to +5 0 (SW) to +2 (NE) +1 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Mix, White locally
08-May -2c to 0c 0 (S) to +6 (N) +1 to +2 +2 (S) to +6 (N) +3 to +4 +0c (S) to +2c (N) +1c to +2c Blue most of UK, Light Red Far SW
09-May 0c to +4c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +3 -2 (NW) to 0 (S/SE) 0 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands
10-May 0c -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) -1 to 0 -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) 0 +0c (S) to +2c (N) 0c to +1c Blue / White all Southern UK
[/code][code=auto:0]
For July
Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average)
06-May 0c to +2c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +2 to +4 +2 (S) to 0 (N) +2 0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red Midlands, Blue other S areas
07-May 0c to +1c 0 to +2 (SE) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) +1 1c (SE) to 3c (N) +2c to +3c Red / Deep Red
08-May 0c to +1c +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +3 +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +4c 1c (SE) to 4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands
09-May +1c to +2c +1 (S) to +8 (N) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) +2c to +3c Light Blue SW, Deep Red Midlands
10-May +1c to +2c 0 to +2 0 to +1 -2 (N) to +0 (S) -1c to 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +1c Blue S Eng, Red Midlands
[/code]
In summary most forecasts are going for a warm festival, pressure is a bit more variable but on average, this is slightly higher than average, while rainfall is also mixed, perhaps slightly higher than average.
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
I am looking to incorporate this into future forecasts, however it is still a bit early to do so, but the initial analysis has been included on the main Glastonbury discussion thread.
[b]Summary[/b]
In summary a lot of data, early indications are rather positive for Glastonbury, hopefully Next week’s update will be just as promising, please get involved on the dedicated forum thread, and please also send comments about the forecasts and any potential tweaks for future versions.
Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973[/url]
This new format is based on the post of Monday in the main Glastonbury thread on the forum, and this reflects the movement into the long term range of the main models.
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3[/url]
[b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 12th June run]
Signs of High Pressure slowly re-establishing itself from Tuesday next week according to the GFS 12Hz run. The High Pressure lasts to a growing extent for most of the run, however a brief blip on the first Wednesday of the festival.Charts shown in order (240, Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)
[attachment=174104:GFS 12 1.JPG] [attachment=174103:GFS 12 2.JPG] [attachment=174108:GFS 12 4.JPG] [attachment=174102:GFS 12 3.JPG]
So if the GFS op were to be believed not looking that bad, and probably mostly dry as well leading up to the festival, however other charts are not so promising.
This shows 12mm of rain, however this understates the rain compared compared to all the ensembles.
[attachment=174121:Rmgfs144sum.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
The trends continue to be pressure ridging from the south, from as early as mid next week to around 1015mb, and steadily rising to 1020mb, however the op run a little bit progressive in increasing pressure too quickly, also a slight tendency for pressure to drop around the start of the festival. Most ensembles agree of heavy rain over next weekend, but after this signs of rainfall total dropping.
If anything this shows the High Pressure moving further away to the South west,
[b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
This shows a lot of unsettled weather over the UK this weekend, however this also shows the trough moving northwards, with High Pressure for Southern areas by mid next week, before ending with low pressure one again. (in contrast to earlier runs which showed Low Pressure further south for much of the run).
Charts shown in order (120, Mon 17 June, 192 Fri 25 June, 240 Sun 27 June)
Things looking a bit promising tonight was High Pressure slowly ridging up on the main models next week, however these op runs are slightly progressive in doing so, however in the run up to Glastonbury festival period, it looks like drying up.
If this is the case, the heavy rain for this weekend makes a big difference.
If the rain is very heavy over, say 40mm, it could make the ground sodden for the festival, meaning a increased risk of a mud bath festival
If the rain is under 20mm, then it would wet the ground the ground but allowing the festival site to dry up before the festival.
Current guidance is for the latter in terms of this coming weekend, but this can easily change.
[b]General Theme[/b]
A little bit more rain or showery outbreaks are possible tomorrow, however as expected high Pressure will steadily edge in across the UK over the start of next week. The start of next week looks mostly dry and settled, there may be some embedded weather fronts pushing in from the west on Tuesday, but this is likely to give some nuisance value cloud at worst. Otherwise Monday to Wednesday is looking dry and settled, bright or sunny.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), and with a slight NW ridge. The ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday (1030-1032mb), with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, both runs keep low pressure centred to the west of Iceland. For Thursday and Friday the 06Hz run keeps the High Pressure strong over the south, with the 12Hz flattening it quicker from the north. Over the weekend the 06Hz run finally collapses allowing a front to the North West a bit closer conversely the 12Hz run rebuilds the High Pressure from the south keeping fronts further north.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Wednesday with only the odd shower, if anything Tuesday looks the most likely day for the odd shower. For Thursday and Friday, there is the risk of fronts trying to edge in on the westerly wind, the 06Hz run has the front initially further north and moves it through South eastwards, so perhaps a little light rain Thursday evening, while a few showers are possible Friday. The 12Hz run has the rain band a bit further south, but moves it eastwards, so Glastonbury looking dry on both Thursday and Friday.
At this stage, looking mostly dry over the weekend, the 06Hz run keeps the low pressure further North and East than recent runs, but maybe the chance of some rain over Sunday evening. the 12Hz run builds High Pressure from the south so looking bone dry.
In Summary the 12Hz run looks very promising with very little rainfall, the 06Hz shows a little bit of rain for the late Thursday and perhaps a few showers on Friday, with maybe a little rain on Sunday, but rainfall totals looking very small at the moment.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175523] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175522] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175521] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175520]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175526] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175525]
The 06Hz run has around 8-10mm of rain forecast, while the 12Hz run has 5-7mm of rain forecast. nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both ensembles continue with theme of pressure rising steadily next week to around 1030mb, with a slow decline in pressure around Thursday onwards to around 1020mb.The 12Hz op run keeps pressure a bit higher than the ensembles mean towards next weekend.
The 06Hz maintains the theme of a mostly dry festival, a few spikes of precipitation, but nothing massive expected. The 12Hz is almost entirely dry after this weekend, and there are also less spikes in the ensembles,
[b]ECM[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), no real change from yesterday. Both charts have the ridge extending North Eastwards by Wednesday, and both continue to have this further north than GFSs runs. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North, the 12Hz has the High Pressure a bit further south. For the weekend there is a NW flow with Low Pressure centred off NE Scotland.
For the weekend both runs have moved away from low pressure effecting southern parts of the UK, notably the 12Hz run looks like rebuilding heights to the South West for the Sunday.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175533:ECM 22a 48.gif] [attachment=175536:ECM 22a 96.gif] [attachment=175535:ECM 22a 144.gif] [attachment=175534:ECM 22a 192.gif]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175539:ECM 22b 48.gif] [attachment=175537:ECM 22b 96.gif] [attachment=175538:ECM 22b 144.gif] [attachment=175547:ECM 22b 192.gif]
[b]Summary [/b]
A few showers are possible tomorrow, after that looking mostly dry next week until Thursday. There is a slightly increased chance of some overnight rain into Friday, but not really amounting to much. Conversely, the chance of some rain next weekend has been reduced. A good deal of bright weather can be expected, pinpointing sunshine is always difficult at this stage Wednesday looks a good bet, while other days may see more of a mix of sun and cloud, but decent amounts of sunshine are likely each day, perhaps even into the weekend.
From tomorrow I will try to give forecasts for each day of the festival.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but a reducing chance over the festival weekend, at this stage total rainfall over the festival is looking very small
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (6.5/10) With the ground conditions looking good, and very little significant rain forecast, mud levels are likely to be low.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 6.5/10 (6/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s perhaps even into the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK and a ridge of around 1020mb over the UK.
However lower pressure starting to edge in from the North West according to UKMO 12Hz, not impacting on Wednesday's weather but ominous for Thursday.Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, it should be mostly dry but the odd shower is possible.
GFS
[attachment=216872:GFS 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216873:GFS 21 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216883:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216877:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216905:ECM 21 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216899:ECM 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
All runs suggest lower pressure for the Thursday, however GFS keeps reasonable pressure over the UK, so again only showers at worst. UKMO/ECM introduce low pressure from the North West, bringing wet and unsettled weather here. looking at the Met Office website " Mainly fine towards the south and east on Thursday, but a steady, if rather uncertain, transition to more unsettled conditions looks likely through the start of this period. " So perhaps an OK weather day in prospect for Glastonbury.
GFS
[attachment=216870:GFS 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216871:GFS 21 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216882:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216881:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216904:ECM 21 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216898:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Friday 27th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is very similar to ECM/UKMO Thursday charts of Low Pressure attempting to nudge in. However the most likely option is the UKMO/ECM combo which low pressure centred over the UK, this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
Obviously this is rather disappointing for Glastonbury, particularly after last nights ECM run.
GFS
[attachment=216867:GFS 21 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216868:GFS 21 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216880:UKMO From 21 June to 27 June 12Hz b.gif]
[attachment=216903:ECM 21 June to 27 June 00Hz.png][attachment=216897:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is again a day behind and very similar to ECM/UKMO Friday charts of Low Pressure into western parts. However the most likely option is the ECM (UKMO does not go past 6 days, but it seem very likely if it did that UKMO would match today's ECM.) Again this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.
GFS
[attachment=216865:GFS 21 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216866:GFS 21 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216902:ECM 21 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216896:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]
The most likely option at this stage is the ECM with the Low Pressure edging away to the east, and better and drier conditions moving in later in the day for a good end to the festival. GFS 12Hz run has more unsettled, until being under progressive compared to the ECM.
GFS
[attachment=216864:GFS 21 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216863:GFS 21 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216901:ECM 21 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216895:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[attachment=216874:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216875:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216876:Ensemble Temps 21 June 06Hz.png]
The 06hz run solidly has pressure at around 1020mb, however with increasing rainfall over the weekend, according to a number of the ensemble runs, Temps rising over the course of the festival.
the 12Hz run has much lower pressure with the op run an outlier, again there is increasing rainfall over the weekend, rising remaining quite cool.
[attachment=216884:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216885:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216886:Ensemble Temps 21 June 12Hz.png]
[b]NOAA[/b]
The final NOAA update
[attachment=216887:500 HPA 20 June -10day.gif]
The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and again it shows an upper trough over the UK.
[b]Summary[/b]
Unfortunately the models has led us up the garden path, there were hopes that the High Pressure would hang on,this now looks very unlikely, with ECM seemingly winning the forecast battle, although its 12Hz run yesterday wasn't helpful in this regard.
it now looks like at least 2 of the festival day will be rather unsettled, certainly Friday and a part of Saturday, Thursday is a bit more uncertain.
So some rainfall expected and some mud for a time, however given recent dry conditions this may not be too bad, unless the rainfall from the unsettled weather is very heavy. So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the start and possibly end of the festival.
The rating on this basis is now back to 6.0, unfortunately.
I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.
[b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
Don't know whether to take the nerd comment as a compliment, but fame at last, and a bit pressure in getting the forecast right.
Again we start off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 14th June run]
I'll bring the days forward to be consistent with the op runs of Wednesday,
Charts shown in order (192 Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)
The trend is for High Pressure to build from the Azores across the UK over the next few weeks,which has been the theme for a number of days.
[attachment=174301:GFS 14 1.JPG] [attachment=174300:GFS 14 2.JPG] [attachment=174299:GFS 14 3.JPG] [attachment=174298:GFS 14 4.JPG]
If this run is right the festival itself looks mostly settled with bright or sunnier than average, rainfall would be below average. Most would be happy with this. The remains uncertainty between the models, as an example the GFS 06Hz run had High Pressure more dominant by next weekend, reducing the risk of Low Pressure shown in the first image above for Next Saturday. I would suspect that the Pressure is below the ensembles average for Next Saturday, but above the ensembles average thereafter.
In the last blog update, I mentioned the potential of the festival itself being dry, but the changeable weather beforehand making the camp-site susceptible to mud due to rain over the next 12 days. The next charts is the GFS total rainfall predictor over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174302:Rmgfs144sum 14.gif]
This suggests about an inch of rain over the next 6 days, and by looking at the daily progression not shown by charts, it suggests the heaviest of the rain, on the feature Monday into Tuesday. This would considerably wet the ground, but there is still time for the ground to dry, providing the weather remains dry until the festival.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 14th June run]
These ensembles confirm the op run was indeed lower than the average in terms of pressure next Saturday, although there is a spike in rainfall around here, and then above the average thereafter. As per the 06Hz run, there is a slow rise in pressure before the start of the festival.
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 13th June]
The upper charts continue to show a trough over the UK, the 8-14 finally showing signs of this weakening over the UK.
[b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
This shows unsettled weather this weekend, remaining rather changeable thereafter, with low pressure to the North West for the following weekend very similar to that portrayed in the GFS 192 above), pressure still is building slowly from the South West, but has less success in having an influence over the UK compared to the GFS.
Charts shown in order (120, Wed 19 June, 192 Sat 22 June, 240 Mon 24 June)
[note these are now in a better format, but makes them easier to download if required]
[attachment=174309:ECM 14 120.JPG] [attachment=174311:ECM 14 192.JPG] [attachment=174315:ECM 14 240.JPG]
[b]Summary [/b]
The charts are still a bit contradictory which is understandable this far out from the festival, there are tentative signs of things settling down once again, but there remains a period of unsettled weather to get through first. The big question is when things start to settle down, the GFS today has been pretty positive bridging the High Pressure in before the festival, the ECM tonight is a bit of a fly in the ointment, keeping low pressure close to the UK a few days before, I wouldn't have thought the end of the ECM run would be particularly wet, but they are not dry either.
[b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0=washout, 10 = dry) 6/10, it would have been higher if ECM was better
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10, I am still concerned about rainfall before the festival.
Heatwave Rating (0= freezing, 10 = heatwave) 5/10, My guess is winds from the West,
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself probably drier than average,but pre festival rain could make ground underfoot wet and cause some mud on site, but probably without actually mud bath conditions.
This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works.
[b]Run up to festival[/b]
Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day.
Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west.
[b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.
[attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG]
[b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.
[attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG]
[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm.
Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited.
There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.
[attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG]
[size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday.
Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.
[attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG]
[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday.
Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain
[attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG]
[b]Ground Conditions [/b]
The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.
At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.
[b]Ensembles [/b]
[attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png]
Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday.
[attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png]
After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday.
[attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png]
Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part.
[b][b]Summary [/b][/b]
The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.
One thing you may be thinking why use July forecasts when the festival is in June, well IMO as the festival is at the end of the month, the forecast for July can add confidence for weather trends at the end of June.
[b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]
[b]June[/b]
Higher Pressure to the North of the UK, with closer to average pressure for Southern parts. Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, rainfall around average for most southern areas.
[b]Pressure slightly above average for all of the UK, Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, and a hig[/b]her positive anomaly than compared to June, rainfall forecast to be slightly above average especially in the
[b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0]
Date read Forecast Pattern 18-23 June Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10
18/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to W Yellow - Orange (Sunday) Damp to start, wet Friday, drier weekend 5.5
19/05/2015 LP to North of UK, keeping Azores ridge to SW to W mainly Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to NE Yellow / Light Orange Damp at times, mostly Eastern UK 6.5
20/05/2015 LP over North if UK, slowly edging away with ridge of HP to S Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to N Dark Green / Yellow Damp, wet at times, mostly Eastern UK 4.5
21/05/2015 LP over UK slowly weakening over time Mild Wet at times SW to W Light Orange Wet to start, drier over weekend 5.0
22/05/2015 HP to start then LP form SW Mild/Warm Wet at times SW to W Light Orange to Light Red Rain/showers most days, drier Sunday 5.0
23/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Mild Damp and Unsettled SW to W Yellow Wed to light orange Rain Wed-Fri, damp/showery weekend 4.0
[/code]
Just realised that my analysis of the festival period itself was missing, so now shown below.[code=auto:0]
Date read Forecast Pattern 24-28 June (Festival period)
18/05/2015 LP over UK to start, edges away to be replaced by flat westerly pattern
19/05/2015 Battle between ridging HP to SW and LP to North East
20/05/2015 LP deepens over UK, and then deepens over SW, before edging away Sunday and centred over S UK
21/05/2015 LP to west of UK with SW winds ahead of it, HP slowly building by weekend
22/05/2015 LP to West slowly weakening with HP building from SW for Sunday
23/05/2015 LP of various strength over UK for festival period
[/code]
Not the best charts this week, but these are often rather more unsettled compared to the real outcome.
[b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0]
Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast
Pressure Temps Pressure Temps
Run (JUNE) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter]
17 May Yellow +3 +2/+3 0c +1c Blue 0(SE)/+10(NW) +2(SE)/+6(NW) -0c(SE)/+0c(NW) 0c(SE)/+2c(NW) Blue gen White Midlands
18 May Blue +3/+4 +2/+3 -0c +1c Blue/Deep Blue +2(S/N)/+4(Cen) 0(S/N)/+2(Cen) -0c(Gen)/+0(NE) +0c(SE)/+2c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue all Southern UK
19 May Yellow -3/-2 +0/+1 -1c -0c Light Blue/White -3(SW)/+0(NE) +0(SW)/+4(NW) -2c(SW)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+2c(NW) Light Blue Gen, White Midlands/SE
20 May Yellow +12/+13 +5 +4c +3c Deep Blue +10(NW)/+14(SE) +4(SW)/+7(NE) +2c( N)/+4c(SE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Deep Blue Gen, White Midlands
21 May Yellow +7/+8 +5 +1c/2c White/Blue +6(SW)/+10(NE) +4(SW)/+6(NE) +1c(SW)/+2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c NW) Deep Blue Gen, white/Red Midlands
22 May Yellow +3 +0/+1 +1c/2c +0/+1 Light Red/White +2(S)/+8(N) +0(SE)/+4(NW) +0c(SW)+/2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c(NE) Blue Deep Gen, white/Red Midlands/SE[/code][code=auto:0]
Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast
Pressure Temps Pressure Temps
Run (JULY) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter]
17 May Yellow +8 +5 +1c +2c Deep Blue +6(SE)/+ 9(NW) +4(SE)/+6(NW) +1c +0c(SE)/+3c(NW) Deep Blue gen White Midlands
18 May Blue -1 -2 0c +1c Red -2(SW)/+ 2(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) +0c(SW)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red Deep Red Midlands
19 May Blue +4/+5 +1/+2 +1c +2c Blue/White +2( W)/+ 6 (E) +0(NW)/+2(SE) +1c (W)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+4c(N) Blue SW White/Red Midlands
20 May Blue +2/+3 -1 +2c/+3c +3c/+4c Red/White +0(SW)/+10 (N) -2(SW)/+4 (N) +1c (S)/+3 (N) +2c(SE)/+6c(NW) White South, Red Midlands
21 May Yellow -3/-2 -2 +0c +1c/+2c Red/White -3(SW)/+ 1(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) -0c(SW)/+1(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red South Deep Red Midlands
22 May Yellow -10 -6/-5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Light Red -10(SW)/-2(NE) -6(NE)/-2(SW) -2c (S)/+1(NE) -0c(SE)/+4c(NE) Red/Deep Red Generally
[/code]
Generally quite positive for Glastonbury in June and for the UK as a whole.
For July however less positive with more in the way of unsettled weather and a bit wetter for northern parts of the UK faring better.
So overall a very mixed picture, with no real pattern as of yet. Hopefully the charts next week will be a more positive.
Thanks for all your nice comments on Twitter, I know that many of you will be going off to Glastonbury, and given the theme of this blog. The forecasts will continue right up to the start of the festival, and there will be updates as well during the festival itself. please get involved on conditions on site both of the weather itself and of ground conditions. The updates of ground conditions helped me tweak the forecast.
One final thing, this blog has been quoted now in the Guardian and the Huffington Post, I just hope my forecast is close to the mark.
Moving onwards to the actual forecast.
[b]General Theme[/b]
As we all know by now there will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western parts of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses.
High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later. Sorry for the copy and paste from yesterdays forecast.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), both runs have this ridge a little bit flatter than the on forecast yesterday. The ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday (1030mb), with the 12Hz run pushing it a bit further north, both runs keep low pressure centred to the west of Iceland. Thursday sees low pressure starting to squeeze down from the North, but with pressure weakening but still remaining over 1024mb for southern areas. This squeezing process continues over the weekend as fronts push in from the west on Saturday, with the 12Hz allowing any fronts to edge that little bit further south. Sunday sees the first big difference between the models, the 06Hz run sees a ridge of High Pressure re establishing itself, while the 12Hz sees low pressure edging in from the North west.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Wednesday with only the odd shower. For Thursday and Friday, there is the slight risk of fronts trying to edge in on the westerly wind, the 06Hz run dissipates this before reaching the south on Friday morning, while the 12Hz has maybe something enough to wet the ground again for Friday morning. The models try to repeat this into Saturday, the 06Hz run keeps southern areas dry, while the 12Hz run has a little bit of rain reaching southern parts. Sunday looks dry on the 06Hz run, while the 12Hz run has a little bit of rain for Sunday night.
In Summary the 06Hz run looks very promising with very little rainfall, the 12Hz shows a little bit of rain for the weekend, nothing much to be concerned about at this stage, but we don't want the whole pattern edging south, as this coming weekend was initially forecast to have Low pressure further north.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175428:GFS 21 06 1.JPG] [attachment=175427:GFS 21 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175426:GFS 21 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175425:GFS 21 06 4.JPG]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175424:GFS 21 12 1.JPG] [attachment=175423:GFS 21 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175422:GFS 21 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175421:GFS 21 12 4.JPG]
Rainfall Next 6 days
Both runs have around 8-10mm of rain forecast, nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both ensembles continue with theme of pressure rising steadily next week to around 1030mb, with a slow decline in pressure around Thursday onwards to around 1020mb.
The 06Hz maintain the theme of a very dry festival, however the 12Hz does have a few spikes indicating an increased chance of precipitation over the weekend.
This indicated a mostly dry and settled start the festival week probably right through to Friday, with an increased risk of some rain over the weekend.
[b]ECM[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), both runs a little bit quicker in doing so than yesterday's charts. Both charts have the ridge extending North Eastwards by Wednesday, but neither quite as far north as yesterday's runs, but the 12Hz a bit further north compared to the 00Hz and compared to the GFS runs. The 12HZ ECM run is also very similar to today's UKMO 12z run (not shown) Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North, the 12Hz has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend both runs keeps any low pressure further away to the North and East with a ridge over South Western areas, this minimises the risk of any weekend rainfall.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175442:ECM 21a 72.gif] [attachment=175441:ECM 21a 120.gif] [attachment=175440:ECM 21a 168.gif] [attachment=175439:ECM 21a 216.gif]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175446:ECM 21b 72.gif] [attachment=175445:ECM 21b 120.gif] [attachment=175444:ECM 21b 168.gif] [attachment=175443:ECM 21b 216.gif]
Again this favours a ridge of High Pressure for western areas, perhaps slipping away, but always tending to remain for the south west, to me this goes against the risk of low pressure massively effecting next weekend.
[b]Summary [/b]
While some rain is expected tomorrow and to a lesser extent Sunday, the start of next week through to around Friday is looking dry and mostly settled weather with some sunshine likely for good measure. There is a risk of some rainfall towards next weekend, but this is likely to be very light. For the weekend itself, some conflicting models, some are going for completely dry, others are gonig for some rainfall, while this is not expected to be massively heavy, there is an increased risk of some rain next weekend. This is something to keep an eye on, hopefully we will have a better idea of this likelihood by the start of next week.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 (7/10) Still looking dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend according to some models.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6.5/10 (6/10) With the site remaining in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 6/10 (5.5/10) Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and Sunglasses as it looks a dry, and possibly warm and bright start to the festival, There remains a risk of rain over the weekend, so still hire those wellies and a brolly just in case.
This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.
For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly.
GFS
[attachment=216966:GFS 22 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216975:GFS 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216991:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216979:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216996:ECM 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217001:ECM 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
A general agreement in the pattern with Low Pressure to the North West of the Uk at Midnight moving South Westwards across the UK to be centred over South Western UK later in the day, perhaps the UKMO run is a bit more progressive in bringing the Low Pressure in quicker than the other runs. So if the UKMO run is correct moderate to heavy rain is likely over Glastonbury on Thursday through the evening slowly lessening in intensity, otter models have the rain edging in later. With the GFS 12hz keeping things mostly dry.
GFS
[attachment=216967:GFS 22 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216974:GFS 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216990:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216978:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216995:ECM 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217000:ECM 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Friday 27th[/b]
Fairly good agreement on the pressure pattern for Friday. With low pressure weather to the west of the Uk, or over the UK (centred over the south) in the UKMO case. The on the ground pattern is a bit clearer though, with low pressure and winds from the south west, showery outbreaks of rain seem likely, some of these could be heavy, but it is impossible to say if Glastonbury gets the worst of the showers.
GFS
[attachment=216968:GFS 22 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216973:GFS 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216989:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216977:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216994:ECM 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216999:ECM 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
A bit more uncertainty again for Saturday, but it ECM/UKMO tends to show Low Pressure over the UK to start before edging away to the East later. The GFS 06Hz tends to agree with this but the GFS 12Hz run keeps the low pressure away out to the west. The most likely scenario is that the ECM/UKMO/GFs 06hz is correct and if so, then it is likely to be drier on Saturday than Thursday and Friday, with more in the way of brighter weather but given that pressure is still between 1015-1020mb, some showers cannot be ruled out.
GFS
[attachment=216969:GFS 22 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216972:GFS 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216988:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216976:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216993:ECM 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.png]] [attachment=216998:ECM 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]
No UKMO available for Sunday, but the both ECM runs try to build pressure giving some decent conditions. Ad does the GFS 06Zh run, the 12Hz keep the low pressure out west, with increased risk of some showers on S/SE winds for Glastonbury. However again the first option seems the most likely, so a mix of bright/sunny spells but some showers possible, but probable more scattered than on Saturday.
GFS
[attachment=216970:GFS 22 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216971:GFS 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
ECM
[attachment=216992:ECM 22 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217002:ECM 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]
ECM Rainfall Predictions
More on these here - > [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Only the 12Hz run available today, the average pressure is always below 1020mb, and drops close to 1015mb by mid festival. But always a huge variety of outcomes, a large number of ensembles go for moderate rain over the festival weekend, while temps always on the cool side.
[attachment=216980:Ensemble Rainfall 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216981:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216982:Ensemble Temps 22 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
After a seemingly dry start to the festival, it looks as if it will turn unsettled Thursday and Friday before progressively turning more settled and drier over the weekend.
So some moderate frontal rainfall on Thursday with some showers expected on Friday, this is likely to give some mud perhaps Thursday evening and into Friday, but unless the showery rainfall is heavy on Friday, ground conditions should be reasonable for the weekend, and at no time is a mud bath expected, even during/after the frontal rainfall.
So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the weekend especially Sunday. at the moment Wednesday is looking a bit cloudy.
On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6.
I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.
[b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather.
[b]Run up to festival[/b]
The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours.
Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet.
[b]Daily forecasts [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per recent forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a ridge of High Pressure over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
brightness in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.
[attachment=253704:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253705:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253711:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 48.png]
[b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b]
Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday a ridge over Southern UK, and Low pressure still away off in the Atlantic. Perhaps more in the way of sunshine developing compared to Wednesday, and felling warm when it does so, Temps low 20s, perhaps 22c-23c by mid to late afternoon, quite possibly the best weather day of the festival.
[attachment=253703:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253702:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253710:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253717:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253714:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 72.png]
[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
This was always forecast to be the dodgy day and so it continues. However the rain amounts are now expected to be fairly small, and shouldn't cause any real long term problems. Temps a little cooler high teens / low 20s, and rather cloud and damp for the most part.
[attachment=253700:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253701:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253709:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253709:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253716:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253713:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 96.png]
[size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
Any overnight rain should clear quite quickly with a ridge of high pressure edging in. However there is still the risk of a shower at times, but not really causing any issues, temps in the high teens with sunshine amounts very difficult to determine at this stage.
[attachment=253699:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253698:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253708:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253715:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253712:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 120.png]
[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
Still uncertainty with regard Sunday, with lower pressure than for recent days, as a result there is the risk of some rain./showers at times. However total amounts of rainfall not likely to be problematic. Temps low 20s and feeling warm, especially in any brightness/sunshine.
[attachment=253696:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253697:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253707:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 144.png]
[b]Ground Conditions [/b]
Monday's rain has softened things a bit, but not too many problems as of yet.
At this stage a little rain is expected on Friday and as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but still worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.
[b]Ensembles[/b]
[b]Pressure [/b]
The pressure drops a little Friday and then again for Sunday.
[attachment=253695:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253722:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Temps [/b]
The temps rise steadily until Friday and then drop back a little.
[attachment=253693:Ensemble Temp 22 June 06Hz.png]
[attachment=253720:Ensemble Temp 22 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
Looking mostly dry during the festival, with rainfall after the festival.
[attachment=253694:Ensemble Rain 22 June 06Hz.png]
[attachment=253721:Ensemble Rain 22 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
Dry and fine for Wednesday and Thursday, damp and Cloudy on Friday. Still uncertain for the weekend probably mostly dry on Saturday with some showers at worse. while showers are possible on Sunday.
This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
So a definite trend towards a wet festival. Is today the day to stall or reverse this trend. Today's forecast will only contain today's runs.
As we move closer to the festival, the operational charts become more important, and I will start with these, although the other forecast methods will still be shown.
[b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO [b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][/b]
From today as the final day of the festival moves into the T+240 range I will show the available charts for this day. So a complete picture of the festival will be shown.
[b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
[attachment=253289:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253293:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 96.JPG][attachment=253282:ECM 18th June 00Hz +96.png] [attachment=253297:ECM 18th June 12Hz +96.png]
[attachment=253299:UKMO 18 June 00Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253298:UKMO 18 June 12Hz + 120.gif]
There is a general theme, Low Pressure to the North East, with slightly higher pressure to the South. However it looks generally unsettled and each of the 12Hz run look similar synoptically so some rain seems likely over Glastonbury, perhaps 10mm of rain possible - enough to dampen the ground and this could effect things later on.
The theme then is on Tuesday, or the Low Pressure to edge away, so a transient day, which should be drier, and allow the ground to dry off a bit after Monday's rain.
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
[attachment=253288:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253292:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253285:ECM 18th June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253296:ECM 18th June 12Hz +144.png]
For Wednesday the theme is for low pressure to the west of the UK to start edging closer to the UK itself. With the exception of the GFS 12Hz run, Wednesdays looks mostly dry, indeed the ECM 12Hz run has a mini HP over South Eastern areas.
For Thursday the theme is for Low Pressure to continue to edge closer to the UK, but a largely dry day seems quite likely.
[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
[attachment=253287:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253291:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253284:ECM 18th June 00Hz +192.png] [attachment=253295:ECM 18th June 12Hz +192.png]
Friday is currently the problematic day, there is currently decent agreement between the models that a wet day is likely, with South Western areas bearing the brunt of the rainfall, with current estimates suggesting over half an inch of rain possible. If this were to occur, this would certainly cause issues with mud, possibly even mudbath conditions.
Saturday continues to look unsettled with further rain or showers.
[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
[attachment=253286:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253290:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253283:ECM 18th June 00Hz +240.png] [attachment=253294:ECM 18th June 12Hz +240.png]
A bit of a disagreement for Sunday, ECM keeps things unsettled with further rain, while he GFS moves the low pressure out of the way quickly and a mostly dry day would probably ensue.
[b]Rainfall Charts[/b]
I am not a massive fans of these charts as they can over do rainfall amounts, but these show the heavy rain for Monday, and then for Friday, and the moderate rain in between for Wednesday based on GFS12Hz ).
[b]Ensembles[/b]
[attachment=253327:Ensemble Temp 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253317:Ensemble Temp 18 June 12Hz.png]
Generally quite cool for time of year, with the average never getting above 7c (850HPa) So no real warm weather likely however.
[attachment=253328:Ensemble Rain 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253318:Ensemble Rain 18 June 12Hz.png]
Both runs are wetter than yesterday suggested especially for Monday and Friday.
[attachment=253326:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253319:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 12Hz.png]
Interesting that both runs show ensemble Pressure dropping on Friday but moreso on the 12Hz, but large variations still present.
[b]CPC Charts[/b]
This covers the festival period 24-28 June and shows Low Pressure bang on top of the UK.
[attachment=253330:610day.03 from 18 June.gif]
[b]Summary [/b]
A lot to take in above, but some moderate rain seems likely on Monday in itself not too much of a problem. Some models suggest some rain on Wednesday but the majority do not go for this. Possibly then dry until Friday when some heavy rain is expected. This has the real potential to cause a lot of mud related problems. Perhaps a little drier and brighter for the weekend but further uncertainty.
The General theme of it being rather unsettled seems very likely and some rain does seem likely for the festival at times, however maybe a straw to hold onto is that perhaps there is a slight theme of the heavy rain being put back, perhaps this may happen and that by tomorrow the rain will be forecast for Saturday.
Despite this the trend towards a wet festival continues so a 7.0 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath Rating.
The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,
This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[b]6-10 day [/b]
[attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping conditions rather settled as time goes on, this improves the chances of dry weather in the run up towards Glastonbury festival.
[b]8-14 day[/b]
[attachment=252592:814day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252605:814day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252593:814day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252594:814day.03 from 10 June.gif]
This again keep pressure higher than average just before the Glastonbury festival but perhaps but not quite as much the 6-10 day chart.
All in all these charts are rather positive for dry weather. For sunnier weather you would would to see the High positioned more to the east.
[b]2. GFS Ensemble Charts [/b]
From 7 June
[attachment=252601:Ensemble Pressure 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252602:Ensemble Rain 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252603:Ensemble Temp 7 JUne 12Hz.png]
These charts are rather messy, pressure averaging 1020mb before Glastonbury with a high degree of variation but dropping a little in the run up to Glastonbury. Rainfall variable with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.
From 9 June
[attachment=252598:Ensemble Pressure 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252599:Ensemble Rain 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252600:Ensemble Temp 9 June 12Hz.png]
Pressure around 1020mb-1030mb to the 21st June before dropping back to around 1015mb on average by the end of run, rainfall looking low in the run up to Glastonbury, but turning a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury with a few ensembles spikes of high rainfall with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.
From 10 June
[attachment=252595:Ensemble Pressure 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252596:Ensemble Rain 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252597:Ensemble Temp 10 June 12Hz.png]
Pressure around 1020mb-1025mb from the 15th June to the 25th and only then dropping slightly below 1020mb, very little variation in the ensembles members either. Rainfall looking very low in the run up to Glastonbury, but a few runs a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury but drier generally than the 9th June with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.
[b]Summary [/b]
The NOAA charts are very promising in the run up to Glastonbury for settled weather. The Ensembles go for a settled period the week before Glastonbury, but will it last for the festival, the 7th/9th June runs suggest no, but today's suggest they might.
A long way off still, but the more patterns are starting to emerge time will tell if they are the right ones. However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury.
This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]
[b]Pressure[/b]
June has a big +ve anomaly to the West/ South west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK and running through to Scandinavia.
July in contrast has more has a mini trough over Northern UK with pressure around or just below normal or the UK (within 1mb of average), there remains High Pressure to the West of the UK and also over Scandinavia. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.
Both months have temps above average for much of the UK with the exception of the SE corner, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for both months, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.
June shows much of the UK below average in terms of rainfall, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas, however up to 130% in the Midlands.
July shows a much wetter picture, above average for the UK, mostly around 110-130% of rainfall, but closer to 170-180% in the Midlands.
It is worth restating the CFS tends to overstate rainfall in the Midlands, as rainfall in concentrated there due to the CFS lack of detail this far out. So don't take this as read that the Midlands will be wetter than other parts, however there is a clear pattern of above average rainfall over the UK and therefore fro Glastonbury around this time.
[b]Summary[/b]
The current outlook is for quite decent condition generally for June, temps above average, and higher pressure than normal.
As we move into July, there is a higher risk of less settled conditions and this obviously impacts the Glastonbury festival right at the end of June, however the large rainfall anomaly forecast doesn't quite tie in with the pressure charts, as the pressure is only slightly below normal, worth keeping an eye on.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]
These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 24/5 to 30/5 May, so 7 runs in total, however the run issue on 25th May was not available for June.
Looking at June first, at Ground level (SLP), 1 of the runs, has a deep trough over South Western UK, 2 have pressure just above normal, and 3 well above normal, temps are generally above average around 1c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average for the south, a bit above average for the Midlands.
[font=arial]General thoughts for July, again one of the runs has a deep trough over the UK, 2 had pressure around average and 4 have pressure above/ well above average, with either a HP over the UK and a ridge of High Pressure. [/font]temps are generally above average around 1-2c, more in the north, rainfall generally average to below average in the Glastonbury,areas, but above average on a number of runs for East Wales into the Midlands.
Most of the runs are generally quite good, but there have been some runs which would give decidedly unsettled weather hopefully the majority will be correct.
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival ..................................................Start / During Festival
24/05/2013.Mostly High Pressure............................................. Ridge / High Pressure over most of UK
25/05/2013 LP TO NE, HP building from SW Settled start.........LP perhaps pushing in from E for weekend
26/05/2013 Battle LP to NE, HP to SW.......................................Battle continues, LP perhaps winning with NW winds
27/05/2013 Battles between LP and HP.....................................Troughs over UK, rather unsettled
29/05/2013 HP generally over UK..............................................Gradually pressure reducing over time
30/05/2013 Deep Trough over UK for a week before festival.....LP to NE slowly being edged away by HP ridging up from SW
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall
24/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange.................................perhaps a little rain run-up, mostly dry festival, odd showers possible
25/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange................................... Showery at times, perhaps more general rain weekend possibly missing to south
26/05/2013 Green / Yellow.............................................Showery build-up, bands of rain pushing across during festival, not washout, but quite wet generally
27/05/2013 Yellow to Orange.........................................Fronts pushing in from time to time, a bit of a washout
29/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange...................................Odd showers to start, perhaps more general rain over weekend
30/05/2013 Yellow to Orange........................................Wet run-up to festival, mostly dry for festival itself
Unfortunately the forecast summary I did for the 28/5/13 got mislaid.
None of the above daily forecasts are brilliant, 1 has a mostly dry festival after a dry build-up, 3 go for a showery set-up and 2 go for wet/washout conditions.
[b]UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jun 2013 to Saturday 29 Jun 2013: (Met Office)[/b]
There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.
[b]Overall Summary [/b]
Early indications now give mixed messages, June still looks quite good generally, but July does not look as good with some of the above forecasts, and the daily forecast for the festival period itself do not that promising, a week or two earlier might be better. Still a long way off and things will continue to change.
This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
This forecast will be split into 3 main sources
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif]
[attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253150:814day.03 from 15 June.gif]
These have both moved from the settled outlook of recent days to something more neutral.
[b]2. Ensemble Forecasts[/b]
[size=3][b]GFS Pressure Ensembles [/b][/size]
[attachment=253114:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253117:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253120:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253122:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 12Hz.png]
These are now very messy with quite a large spread, whereas before there was consensus of things remaining settled until at least the immediate run up to the festival. Now average pressure is set to drop back
Now next week the average pressure remains around 1020mb throughout the festival (with the 06Hz ensembles dropping it further at the start of the festival)
[size=3][b]GFS Rainfall Ensembles [/b][/size]
[attachment=253113:Ensemble Rain 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253116:Ensemble Rain 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253119:Ensemble Rain 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253121:Ensemble Rain 15 June 12Hz.png]
Again more uncertainty compared to before with some large spikes, with some ensembles going for moderate rain at times during next week, some staying dry or mostly dry.
[size=3][b]GFS Temperature Ensembles [/b][/size]
[attachment=253112:Ensemble Temp 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253115:Ensemble Temp 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253118:Ensemble Temp 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253123:Ensemble Temp 15 June 12Hz.png]
Again more uncertainty of this as well, with the average 850hpa temps closer to 5c than 10c to festival, and rising by the end.
[b]3. Operational Runs from GFS and ECM - as they move into the "more reliable " sub T+240 range. [/b]
These initially focus on the Monday before the festival, and the Wednesday, as we move through the week these will forecast the whole of the festival period.
[size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size]
[attachment=253126:GFS 14th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253128:GFS 14th June 12Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253132:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253133:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 216.JPG]
The GFS run mostly go for an unsettled picture, with todays 12hz run showing the most settled conditions. There is a pattern at the moment that the GFS op run are more unsettled than the ensembles.
[attachment=253134:ECM 14th June 00Hz + 192.png] [attachment=253137:ECM 15th June 00Hz + 168.png] [attachment=253148:ECM 15th June 12Hz + 168.png]
The ECM runs have moved from a rather settled picture on yesterday 00Hz run to rather more unsettled picture (including yesterday 12Hz run not shown.)
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June [/b][/size]
[attachment=253127:GFS 14th June 06Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253129:GFS 14th June 12Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253131:GFS 15th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253133:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 216.JPG]
[attachment=253135:ECM 14th June 00Hz + 240.png] [attachment=253136:ECM 15th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253147:ECM 15th June 12Hz +216.png]
Each of the past 4 ECM runs for Wednesday has shown something different, form the settled picture on yesterday 00Hz run, rather more unsettled yesterday 12Hz and today 00Hz to in an between picture on tonight's 12h run.
[b]Summary [/b]
[b]Good [/b]
The Ensembles are not that bad
Perhaps the pattern is settling back down from the change of a few days ago to something not too bad
Even if it does rain a little, the ground should be able to take it.
[b]Bad [/b]
There is a continuation of a move away from a settled festival
Some operational runs make for gloomy reading
[b]Overall[/b]
It is important not to try to overreact to a few bad runs, the chances of a completely dry festival has receded somewhat in recent days. However providing any unsetled wtaher is transient adn tehre is a mix of conditions, then on site conditions are not likely to be that bad.
There is also a slight trend of it being a little unsettled before the festival and perhaps improving during the festival, but this is a hunch and may well be proven wrong.
So overall, there is more uncertainty than before, but given the current dry conditions, I'll still edge to it being more likely a dust bowl than a mud bath. But still take your wellies just in case.
As such I give this festival a 4.5/10 rating at this time (0dustbowl, 10mudbath)
This is the 5th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],
[b]Previous Blogs Summaries[/b]
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages
2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily
4. NOAA 500Mb Upper Charts[/b]
The NOAA upper charts are new for this week, as we move away from the longer range forecast.
Future Blogs will move away from CFS Monthly Averages and onto GFS and NOAA only.
[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
[b]June[/b] [From Net Weather Extra]
[attachment=215545:June Rainfall - GIF.gif] [attachment=215546:June Temps - GIF.gif] [attachment=215544:June Pressure - GIF.gif]
For June, I have created a GIF of all charts to date, click to animate. In each case, each chart shows the weekly evolution of the forecast from early May to the latest update on the 7 June.
Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215538:Rainfall June 7 June.png] [attachment=215537:Temps June 7 June.png] [attachment=215536:Pressure June 7 June.png]
Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-140%), but around/ below average for the South West so better than last week.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, very similar to last week.
Pressure is forecast to be be above average, towards the north, but below average towards the south west, so continuing the worsening theme.
Still a bit mixed.
[b]July[/b]
Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215534:Rainfall July 7 July.png] [attachment=215533:Temps July 7 June.png] [attachment=215535:Pressure July 7 June.png]
Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (180%), and higher than average over most of Southern UK.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, but the anomalies less than forecast last week.
Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, very similar to last week.
In summary, looking wetter than last week.
[b]2. CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][From Net Weather Extra][code=auto:0]
CFS RunDate obtain Rating Pressure Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure Winds Rain Temps
31 May 00HZ 01-Jun 7.5 HP Building From SW, LP largely kept away to North West W/NW Odd shower possible, but mostly missing SW Light Orange to Orange
1 June 00HZ 02-Jun 3.0 LP to NE to start, HP ridges in, then LP comes back from NW Late weekend NW Moderate rain except Saturday Dark Green (Sunday) / to Light Orange
2 June 00HZ 03-Jun 9.0 HP bang on top of the UK for Wed-Sat, only slowly edging away to East Sunday E Maybe odd light shower Light Orange
3 June 00HZ 04-Jun 3.0 Ridging HP to start, then zonal with West winds and a flat fast moving jet W Bands of rain moving west across UK, some heavy Yellow / Light Orange
4 June 00HZ 05-Jun 9.0 HP to start, but LP edging up from South E Odd Shower Wed, otherwise dry Light Orange to Deep Orange
5 June 00HZ 06-Jun 4.5 HP Wednesday, but low pressure from north and west taking over W Bands of rain Thur, Fri and Sun (hvy Fri/Sun) Yellow / Light Orange6
6 June 00HZ 07-Jun 4.0 LP centred Northern UK, unsettled with West to South West Winds W/SW Rain / Showers all days, some heavy Dark Green to Light Orange[/code]
An average score of 5.71 (entirely subjective), but what is very noticeable is that the forecasts are either really good (3) or really bad, no in betweens which is often the case.
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url] )
[b]July[/b] (June not available)[code=auto:0]
Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall
01-Jul +1c to +2c +3c to +4c +6 to +7 +4 to +5 Blue S/SW/SE Eng, Light Red W Midlands / Wales
02-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +4 to +5 Blue Southern UK, White Midlands
03-Jul -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -3 to -2 -3 to -2 Light Blue SE, Red, Midlands/SE
04-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +6 to +7 +2 to +3 Blue SW, Red Midlands/ Wales
05-Jul -1c to 0c +1c to +2c -2 to -1 0 to +1 Blue S England, Red Midlands
06-Jul 0c to +1c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +3 to +4 Deep Blue S England, White Light Red Midlands
07-Jul 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +2 to +3 +1 to +2 Blue S England, Red Midlands
[/code]
In terms of upper air Temps 5 are marginally above average, 2 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
In terms of pressure (at both z500 and at Sea Level) 5 are above average, and 2 below average.
In terms of rainfall, 3 are positive, is negative, 3 are mixed
[b]4. NOAA[/b]
I have attached a weekly GIF for both the 6-10 trend and the 8-14 trend, in both cases, if you click the chart, you will be able to animate.in each case, the charts show the daily evolution from the 1st June to the 7th June.
[attachment=215548:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
For the 6-10 days, a clear trend of the upper trough moving away, and upper ridges closer to the UK.
[attachment=215547:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
For the 8-14 days, The same initial trend of the upper trough moving away, but no dominant pattern emerging.
This suggests to me more settled weather next week, but as we move closer to Glastonbury, 17 days away, so only just out of range of these forecasts, perhaps not so settled once again.
Daily updates on this are published on the main forum here -> [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]
[b]Summary[/b]
A lot of data this week, and no clear conclusions, however the monthly runs for June suggest, a rather unsettled outlook. The daily CFS runs are very mixed, some very good weather foretasted and some very wet weather foretasted. It does seem that next week sees the weather improve and things settling down before next weekend but there are indications after that of things going downhill once again.
So my latest conclusion is slightly negative for the Glastonbury festival.
For more info including the latest spreadsheet containing the CFS Raw Runs data and the CFS from Meteociel, please visit the discussion thread on the main forum. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]
So all of a sudden it is two days to go before the gates open at Glastonbury 2014, do we finally have an idea of the weather for the festival. The general theme is sorted to an extent, a decent day Wednesday with the remnants the settled spell before getting worse Thursday/Friday, and possibly improving again over the weekend. However even the above summary give a large scope of variation for the detailed ground conditions at Glastonbury.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath
Onto the daily forecasts
[b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]
Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.
For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly. (Pretty much the same summary as for the last few days)
Some brightness / Sunny spells are possible, but in general there is likely to be a good deal of cloud cover, temps high teens low 20s, feeling warm in any sunny spells.
[b]GFS[/b]
[attachment=217081:GFS 23 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217090:GFS 23 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]
[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
[attachment=217099:ECM 23 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
Synoptically there is good agreement that by 12 noon, there will Low Pressure of around 1010mb to the west of the UK, with pressure of around 1015mb for the south coast of England and 1020mb for Northern Scotland. The UKMO runs yesterdays were a bit progressive in pushing Low Pressure over the UK. As such the UKMO model has less rainfall over Glastonbury than yesterday suggested. GFS 06Hz suggests moderate rain on Thursday, but the other models also tend to reduce the rainfall for Thursday daytime.
However Thursday evening is expected to see some rainfall for Glastonbury edge in from the West/ South west, with spme agreement on this between the models.
[b]GFS[/b]
[attachment=217082:GFS 23 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217089:GFS 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]
[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
[attachment=217102:UKMO From 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217112:UKMO from 23 June to 26 June.png]
[attachment=217098:ECM 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217124:ECM 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Friday 27th[/b]
For Friday, the low pressure is set to the South west of the Uk overnight and move eastwards to be centred over southern England by mid afternoon. as such Friday is set to be unsettled. The current most likely outcome is for frontal rainfall to edge in from the south west overnight, the intensity of this rainfall varies from light and patchy (ECMO) to heavy (GFS) with heavy showery rainfall (UKMO) It seems likely that for the rest of the day there is the potential for further heavy outbreaks of rain, but with some drier slots in between.
GFS
[attachment=217083:GFS 23 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217088:GFS 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=217101:UKMO From 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217111:UKMO from 23 June to 27 June.png]
[attachment=217097:ECM 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217109:ECM Ens 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217123:ECM 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
The current trend is for the core of the low pressure to move away into the continent for Saturday, however pressure over the UK is set to be low around 1015mb for southern UK, and with an Easterly wind, there is the potential for further showery outbreaks of rain after a fairly dry overnight period. The heaviest of the showers likely to be during the afternoon, perhaps easing off into the evening as pressure nudges in from the west.
GFS
[attachment=217084:GFS 23 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217087:GFS 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO/ECM
[attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217110:UKMO from 23 June to 28 June.png]
[attachment=217096:ECM 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217122:ECM 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]
Pressure is slowly set to build from the west, but not as quickly as some runs yesterday tries to indicate. so with still fairly lowish presure , there is further potential for sowers, but these are not likely to be widespread or as heavy as those on Saturday, so hopefully a decent end to the festival, and hopefully some sunshine.
GFS
[attachment=217085:GFS 23 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217086:GFS 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
UKMO / ECM
[attachment=217126:UKMO From 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=217095:ECM 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217107:ECM Ens 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217125:ECM 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both sets of ensembles sees pressure drop during the festival, moreso for the 12H z to around 1010mb, and then rise slowly over the weekend. The ensembles indicate a dry Wednesday and daytime Thursday, but with some rain likely on Friday and over the weekend. The 12Hz run is worse for rainfall amounts. Temps OK to start but cool by Friday and for the weekend.
[attachment=217092:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217093:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217094:Ensemble Temps 23 June 06Hz.png]
[attachment=217117:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217118:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217116:Ensemble Temps 23 June 12Hz.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
A few changes from yesterday, Thursday looks drier than yesterday suggested to give 2 dry days to start, but Friday looks a bit wetter, and there is greater potential for some showers over the weekend.
Definitely pack your wellies, for Friday and perhaps the weekend, and also your sunscreen, which might also be needed over the weekend.
On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6, and if anything uncertainty about the weather is greater than yesterday.
[b]The final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]
The "Siberian" High now 1056mb and centred over Western Russia, has plunged bitterly cold air over most of Europe, with Severe weather conditions in many areas. As forecast a few days ago the High is starting to fall south in Western Europe with milder weather trying to push in over the UK.
[attachment=129787:3 fEB cURRENT.PNG]
Remaining bitterly cold over much of Europe, but milder weather pushing from the Atlanitc for western parts of the UK, bringing mostly rain for western areas, and snow for Eastern parts of the Uk.
[attachment=129774:3 Feb + 24.PNG]
Remaining cold over most of Europe for Sunday, but slightly milder for the UK, Western France and Scandinavia with westerly winds.
[attachment=129777:3 Feb + 48.PNG]
A lot of uncertainty at the moment for the rest of the week, a bit of a battleground with milder winds trying to push in from the west, but with HP remaining over Scandiviania, this is very difficult to call. The GFS scenario shown below shows the cold air pushing back over the UK for the latter part of the week.
[attachment=129783:3 Feb +72.PNG] [attachment=129785:3 Feb +96.PNG] [attachment=129780:3 Feb + 120.PNG]
[attachment=129782:3 Feb + 144.PNG] [attachment=129786:3 Feb +168.PNG]
In terms of the Alps though, it is looking very likely that condtions will be very settled and also cold or very cold.
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 4 Feb - [/b]Sea level generally, 0-400m around France/Italy border
[b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b]Wed 8 Feb - [/b]0-500m generally, 700m-1000m France/Italy border and 1100-1300m S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b][b]Thur 9 Feb - [/b][/b]0-600m generally, 700m-1400m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b][b]Fri 10 Feb -[/b][/b]0-600m generally, 700m-1400m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
[b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
[b]To Sea Level throughout the period, with temps set to fall below -20c over some parts of the Alps, every night for the next week.[/b]
[b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 4 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-9 to -11c South, -16 to -19c North[/b]
[b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-6 to -9c South and West, -14 to -19c North[/b] and East
[b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-6 to -9c South and West, -15 to -19c North[/b] and East
[b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b] -[/b] [b]-[/b][b]5 to -9c South, -12 to -15c North[/b]
[b]Wed 8 Feb - -2 to -6c [/b]Some Central areas, sub -10c elsewhere
[b]Thur 9 Feb -[/b] [b]-1 to -5c [/b]Some Central areas, -7 to -9c elsewhere
[b]Fri 10 Feb[/b] -[b] -1 to -4c [/b]Some Central areas, sub -5 to -9c elsewhere
The central areas mentioned above tend to relate to a small area of the far SE of Switzerland and SW Austria
[b]Sat 4 Feb -[/b] Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Austria from the east at times.
[b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Austria from the east at times.
[b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny
[b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly Dry and sunny, some light to moderate snow at times for Austria
[b]Wed 8 Feb[/b][b], [/b][b]Thur 9 Feb[/b][b], [/b][b]Fri 10 Feb[/b] -[b] Mostly Dry and Sunny[/b]
[attachment=129790:3 Feb +24 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129776:3 Feb + 48 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129778:3 Feb + 72 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129784:3 Feb +96 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129779:3 Feb + 120 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129781:3 Feb + 144 Alps.PNG]
[attachment=129789:3 Feb + 168 Alps.PNG]
