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J10

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Blog Comments posted by J10

    J10

    Posted

    In addition to these blogs, additional information and discussion will occur on the dedicated Glastonbury 2013 thread on the main forum.

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714260

     

    Well worth a visit for the latest news and for other thoughts.

     

    Below is my update based on the 00Hz runs, interesting, but not worthy of a full blog update.

     

    Update based on 00Hz today, this week - risk of rain from and possible plume from east reduced. Next weekend GFS makes more of feature emphasised last night by ECM, ECM conversely makes less of it than last night, However they both have buckles in NW flow thereafter meaning Low Pressure cells are further south than they would otherwise be.

     

    Examples

     

    This shows a ridging Azores High giving a NW flow for SW areas, which should mean mostly dry conditions.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174393]

     

    This shows the Azores High being edged or flattened down by the Jet to the North, so changeable over the UK, but probably not too bad conditions for SW areas.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174392]
     

    This shows a real "buckle" in the flow, a LP to the south, which most likely would be a a direct hit for southern areas, not good news 1 day before the festival.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174391]

     

    Summary

     

    Despite ensembles continuing to go with the Azores High building theme, Today's op GFS run 06Hz very disappointing from T+240 onwards, the models continue to vary but if there exact models are published on the 12Hz, then the wetness ratings would be worsened.

    TonyH

    Posted

    For once I don't necessarily agree with some of that. There is a large degree of uncertainty in relation to the Low Pressure pushing up from the South West for next weekend. With inter run differences and certainly between the different models.

    In any case we shall see and hopefully the low pressure for Next Weekend remains out to the west (or south west)
    TonyH

    Posted

    One handy thing to add to the blog would be this link with gives the expected rainfall for the next 144 hrs,

    [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html"]http://www.wetterzen.../fsgfsmeur.html[/url]


    And select Niederschlagsummen (total rainfall) and +144h, particularly useful for wet weeks like next week is projected to be.
    Thundery wintry showers

    Posted

    Of course it depends on where you live, any High Pressure with an Easterly flow, gives sunny or bright weather here, Even Last July tended to be quite bright here, even if wasn't wall to wall sunshine.

    For us unsettled weather with Atlantic flows tends to be the worst, at any time of year, and that's why I don't particularly like it, I have no particular desire for convective activity either.

    My preference for a summer would be to have over half the summer sunny or bright with daytime maxes over 20c. So in nutshell sunny and warm is my preference.
    Thundery wintry showers

    Posted

    F1 are set to clarify the blocking rule [url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/formula_one/16416932.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.u...ne/16416932.stm[/url]

    I think stewards should be consistent, and this should also make it easier for fans to understand what is going on. I think that less penalties should be dished out generally as a lot of incidents are racing ones whihc maybe 50/50 or even 60/40.

    I think the totting up procedure seems a valid one, and perhaps not so punitive as the current system.

    My proposal would be linked to the effect of the incident in the race. A say driver A (4th) crashes with driver B (3rd) and it is drivers A fault.

    If Driver A has a broken front wing and driver B continues, then driver has already been punished. then Driver A gets no further penalty.
    If Driver A takes 3rd from Driver B, then driver A ordered to relinquish place.
    If Driver A takes 3rd from Driver B,and driver B has a broken front wing, then Driver A order to drop back behind Driver B, even if it is 10 places.

    Admittedly my proposal would be controversial, and would never be implemented however it would be interesting if it was.
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