J10
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Posts posted by J10
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10.0c and 75mm
Thank you Roger for the new style analysis, much better for me to use.
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Results Now in
Monthly
No one got this month spot on, however syed2878 was only 0.3c out and 3 others were within 0.5c.
SLEETY 0.4 out and I remember Atlantic & Wade both 0.5c out.
Seasonal and Overall
The Top 10 very similar overall and for the Winter Season.
I remember Atlantic won the season and syed2878 came 2nd after both making very large rises in the standings.
Feb1991blizzard rounded off the Top 3.
Downloads
Full Excel Sheet -> Feb 2024 CET.xlsx
Winter 23-24 Final Results -> Winter 23-24 Final Results.pdf
Feb 24 Summary Sheet -> Feb 2024 Summary.pdf
Overall Competition Summary sheet up to Feb 24 -> Feb 2024 CET.pdf-
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7.6c and 85mm
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Finally the snow has arrived over the Alps with more forecast over the weekend.
Heavy Snowfall in the Alps - The Whiteroom
WWW.SNOW-FORECAST.COM
What is forecast to be the biggest snowfall of 2024 so far is getting underway in the Alps, with snow also falling in the Dolomites and Pyrenees. The snow is expected to keep falling in many areas through the weekend...-
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Just saw this on Twitter / X yesterday. https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU Temperature Records look like they are being smashed in Austria this month.
Looking at the webcams for Kitzbuhel today while glorious sunshine, snow in short supply on sun facing slopes. This is taken from the top of the Hahnenkamm (kitz.net)
While there was plenty of snow there in January, hopefully conditions will improve and I can post a proper wintry scene there last this month/winter.
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PDFs
Jan 2024 CET.xlsxJan 2023 Summary.pdfJan 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly Scores
Just the one spot on this month, noname_weather getting 4.7c spot on.
Two others 0.1c out, Dancerwithwings and Metwatch.
Seasonal Scores
Large changes in the Top 10, however Typhoon John stays on top.
Yearly Scores
Very similar to the Seasonal scores however Norrance egdes into the top 10.
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5.2c and 75mm. Although might be milder.
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Looking forward to the snow pics Malcolm. It does look as if the the weather is set to turn very much colder over the Alps into next week
Plenty of snow expected over the next 72 hrs, but then turning much drier and hopefully brighter to follow.
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Summaries Dec 2023 Summary.pdf Dec 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Excel Dec 2023 CET.xlsx
December figures finally ready. Note I have allowed both entries slightly after midnight to pass without penalty points. So only 1 entry this month with any penalty points.
Monthly
Confirming the figures by Roger above, a clear win by Typhoon John this month.
Seasonal and Overall figures
The top 3 in both competitions. Typhoon John, davehsug and virtualsphere
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5.4c and 100mm
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Overall
November CET Excel Nov 2023 CET.xlsx
Nov 23 Summary PDF Nov 2023 Summary.pdf
Nov 23 Summary Overall PDF Nov 2023 Summary Overall.pdfThe top 8 remain the same but in a largely different order.
Well done to DR(S)NO winning this year.
DR(S)NO finished 1st (from 2nd)
Dancerwithwings 2nd (from 7th)
Leo97t 3rd (from 5th)
The PIT 4th (from 1st)
Here are the monthly scores for the Top 8 this month.
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Monthly
As per above, 4 players got it spot on.Wold Topper, Earthshine, WYorksWeather and Mark Bayley.
Seasonal
The same 1-2-3 as last month but in a differeent order.
Roger J Smith 1st (from 2nd)
Kentish Man 2nd (from 3rd)
sunny_vale 3rd (from 1st)
Overall figures will be published tomorrow.
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Excel Oct 2023 CET.xlsx
Summary Oct 2023 Summary.pdf
Summary Overall Oct 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly
Three players spot on this month, Summer18, Typhoon John and Frigid
Seasonal
sunny_vale stays in the lead, Roger J Smith 2nd from 6th and Kentish Man 3rd from 11th.
Overall
Some changes this month.
The PIT 1st (from 4th), DR(S)NO stays 2nd, Summer Sun 3rd (from 1st).
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Mild and Wet 8.0c and 130mm.
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Excel Sept 2023 CET.xlsx
Summary Sept 2023 Summary.pdf
Summary Overall Sept 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly
Two players 0.1c out, sunny_vale and Earthshine
3 others within 0.5c, RJBingham (0.2c), Midlands Ice Age (0.3c) and mazelike (0.4c)
Seasonal
Very similar to the monthly score, but with a few penalty points changing the order of the Top 10.
Overall
No change to the Top 4.
Summer Sun (1st), DR(S)NO (2nd), Leo97t (3rd) and The PIT (4th)Very little change also to the Top 10.
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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:
The ranking table posted a few days ago (page 16 if we all have same pagination, or 28th ... is still okay without edit, subject still to J10 scoring CET contest. Congrats to sunny_vale (17.1 forecast made 24th Aug!) and Earthshine (also 17.1 after a savvy edit), RJBingham who made a first contest entry two days late (17.2) and Midlands Ice Age at 16.7 after a late edit. Mazelike took fifth at 16.6 and then came myself and Methuselah (sounds Biblical) at 16.2 (which seemed pretty daring at the time).
EWP was confirmed at 91.0, very close to our highest forecast of 92.0 from summer18. Second was Emmett Garland at 87 mm, and third was at 85.0 (JeffC) with a later entry by Summer Shower also 85.0 in fourth. A 19th place 15.9 CET forecast was good enough for Summer Shower to take best combined by lowest total ranks (23, one of the highest winning totals we've had, usually we have a forecast or two that total under ten in ranks). EWP ranks are subject to adjustment if table value on 5th is outside the range of 89.6 and above, if it falls into that range, ranks remain same. CET ranks are official when J10 scores the contest.
I will also edit any other posts made by me involving CET daily or monthly data. Can already say from memory that June to September will average second behind 2006 and just ahead of 1826/1976 tied.
There were quite a few successful late edits this month. Scores up later this evening.
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11.6c and 116mm
After going way too low for September, going over 1c plus over average this month. Perhaps also 11.6c will happen for the first time.
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Excel August 2023 CET.xlsx
PDF Summary August 2023 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall Summary August 2023 Summary Overall.pdfThe PDF Overall Summary is now over 2 pages, so should be easier to read.
Monthly
Two players were spot on this month, Weather Enthusiast91 and Weather Observer.In total 29 were within 0.5c, so generally a well forecasted month, and this has meant not that change to the ongoing competitions.
Seasonal
The seasonal Top 5 is very similar to last month.Dancerwithwings remains in 1st
Summer Sun remains in 2nd
I remember Atlantic 252 is 3rd (from 5th)
jonboy is 4th (from 3rd)
noname_weather is 5th (from 4th)
Overall
The overall Top 5 is also very similar to last month.Summer Sun remains in 1st
DR(S)NO is 2nd (from 3rd)
Leo97t is 3rd (from 2nd)
The PIT is 4th (from 6th)
reef remains in 5th
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4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
So, the EWP minders have made a very substantial change to the value, which you wil recall was 85.0 mm, now they are putting only 77.0 mm into the tables, and more problematic, they seem to have taken some of it and put it into July which has gone up from 121.3 to 133.4 mm. They often continue to make small changes for up to three months before these table values settle and usually the first month after doesn't have much of a change, so this is a bit uncharted territory.
Obviously I will be altering the August scoring as is the policy, and supposedly sticking with the July scoring but 12 mm is quite a big change to a month-later table adjustment (usually they might be a couple of tenths at this stage, even the first change to August is a lot bigger than most).
I will just change August for now and mull over what if anything to do about July. It would not change any points scoring as no forecasts were higher, but it would add further to average errors.
There is also the "rules for a reason" aspect, one reason being, I have lots to do already and re-scoring contests already settled a month ago is a pain. (and I had a small error in July from the first table posting, so I have to factor in, what impact does that have on my outlook?) ... will probably leave it alone because it won't have any impact on points and the average error stat is already quite impacted by whether or not a forecaster entered July.
It's going to take a while to make the August changes and they will be fairly significant given how many forecasts are between 70 and 100 mm. Will post again when changes are made but the tables already created will be edited rather than moved.
Would say look in tomorrow because I suspect I will be doing this overnight your time.
I think it would be fine to take figures at a point in time as final, so say anything after the 10th of the following month is not considered. I wouldn't make any changes to July figures now.
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1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Hi J10….just wondering when you’re August Tables/Values are landing
Tomorrow probably
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14.7c and 70mm
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PDF Summaries July 2023 Summary.pdf July 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Excel July 2023 CET.xlsx
Monthly
Just the one spot on entry this month. I remember Atlantic 252Summer Sun (0.1c) and Dancerwithwings (0.3c) complete the top 3.
Seasonal
Big Changes in the seasonal Competition.
The top 3
Dancerwithwings 1st (from 4th)
Summer Sun 2nd (from 11th)
jonboy 3rd (unchanged)
Overall
The top 6 last month remains the same but with some ordering changes.
Summer Sun 1st (from 6th)
Leo97t 2nd (from 1st)
DR(S)NO 3rd (from 2nd)
Metwatch 4th (from 5th)
reef is 5th (from 3rd)
The PIT is 6th (from 4th)-
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This months CET scores should be up Wednesday or Thursday.
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Excel Mar 2024 CET.xlsx
SummaryMar 2024 Summary.pdf
Summary Overall Mar 2024 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly and Seasonal
Just the 1 correct answer this month, Typhoon John.
3 others 0.1c out, Methuselah, The PIT and Addicks Fan 1981.
Overall
A few changes this month.
feb1991blizzard leads (3rd last month), Typhoon John 2nd (from 9th) and snowray 3rd (from 10th)