J10
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This months CET scores should be up Wednesday or Thursday.
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17.0c and 100mm
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Excel June 2023 CET.xlsx
Summaries June 2023 Summary.pdfJune 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly / Seasonal
No one got it spot on this month.The top 3 this month, Earthshine, Polar Gael and jonboy.
The top 10 very similar to the monthly positions.
Overall
The top 5 last month remains the same but with slight ordering changes.
Leo97t remains in the lead.
DR(S)NO remains 2nd.
reef is 4th from 3rd.
The PIT is 3td from 4th.
Metwatch remains 5th.6th - 9th is the same players, but again in a different order.
To complete the Top 10, this month's winner Earthshine is 10th up from 21st.
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17.7c and 75mm
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As we approach the Glastonbury festival for 2023 the patterns are now starting to become more concrete.
Some rain is expected to advance from the South West tonight, with possibly 10mm possible. Turning Drier later tomorrow with some sunny intervals and only the odd chance of a shower.
As the gates open on Wednesday, a fairly slack Westerly with the odd chance of a shower but probably staying dry. Temps around 23c.
High Pressure ridging in from the South West for Thursday with mostly settled conditions expected, the odd shower again cannot be ruled. Friday looks dry under high pressure with Warm conditions expected. Temps around 23c, perhaps with more cloud on Friday.
Saturday also looks dry under high pressure with Warm conditions expected. A slight change in the weather patterns with fronts trying to edge from the West, however at this stage it seems this will probably arrive early Monday so one to keep an eye on. Temps around 25c with sunny spells likely.
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Here are the latest Met Office Thoughts.
UK long range weather forecast
19-28 June Outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy and thundery at times, are likely to spread across many areas of the UK early next week. The far northwest may remain drier at first but with some patchy low cloud here. Through the week, showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely to continue, though brighter or sunnier interludes are also expected, along with a brisk breeze at times. Temperatures remaining warm or very warm and rather humid for many. Beyond next week and towards the end of June, there may be a return to slightly more settled conditions. This would mean reduced rainfall amounts for many, although perhaps with the northwest seeing more rainfall at times. Temperatures are likely to remain above average.
It seems likely that the current dry and settled spell will slowly end over the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain developing by early next week.
Currently remaining unsettled with further rain or showers for the gate opening day on Wednesday. Better news hinted at for the start of the Music starting with hints of pressure building from the South West. While some showers cannot be totally ruled out, organised areas of rain become much less likely.
Rainfall totals in the runup to the festival are very uncertain, with over an inch of rain possible by next Wednesday according to some GFS runs. Temperatures look set to be low to mid 20s most days.
Charts
Ensemble Average (L-R) GEFS T+168, ECM T+168, GEFS T+216, ECM T+216 (All runs 12Hz today)
Accumulated Rainfall GFS 18Hz run today until 6am Wednesday.
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There remains the risk of showers or Thunderstorms for Glastonbury overnight and for much of tomorrow.
Thereafter looking dry settled and very warm for Tuesday through to Friday. In a similar way to this weekend slowly turning more unsettled from the South West.
Probably remaining mostly dry next weekend, with the risk of precipitation rising for the Glastonbury festival.
Chart 1 - GFS T+180.
Charts 2/3 - Ensemble Average GFS / ECM For Wed 21 June Midday
Despite this there is very large inter run for the duration of the festival, a big fingers crossed that todays GFS doesn't come off.
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Good to see dry conditions around Glastonbury, I will give an update later today, but here are the latest Met Office Thoughts.
UK long range weather forecast
16-25 June To begin the period, settled conditions are likely to persist for many. However, it may become cloudier in the southwest, with the chance of some showers or thunderstorms here. It will likely remain cloudy at times along northern and eastern coasts, cloud occasionally moving inland, mainly overnight. Some moderate winds around coasts, especially in the southwest where they may become fresh to strong at times. Temperatures generally warm away from the east coast, locally very warm. Later in the period uncertainty increases, however there is a risk of showers or thunderstorms in southern areas of the UK, while northern areas are more likely to hold onto drier conditions. The easterly breeze may ease at times, allowing eastern counties to see a recovery in temperatures. Temperatures generally near to above average.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 2023-
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Looking at the GFS and ECMWF keeps the settled conditions until T+96. Increased confidence of more unsettled weather spreading in from the South West. That though is where any confidence ends. There is a chance of more generally unsettled conditions to follow, but also a chance of remaining mostly settled but with occasional incursions from the South West.
T+120
Precipitation Totals to T+384 (GFS)
Variation between 10-30mm for the Glastonbury area.Met Office Thoughts
UK long range weather forecast
9-18 June To begin the period, settled conditions are likely to persist for many. However, it may become cloudier in the southwest, with the chance of some showers or thunderstorms here. It will likely remain cloudy at times along northern and eastern coasts, cloud occasionally moving inland, mainly overnight. Some moderate winds around coasts, especially in the southwest where they may become fresh to strong at times. Temperatures generally warm away from the east coast, locally very warm. Later in the period uncertainty increases, however there is a risk of showers or thunderstorms in southern areas of the UK, while northern areas are more likely to hold onto drier conditions. The easterly breeze may ease at times, allowing eastern counties to see a recovery in temperatures. Temperatures generally near to above average.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 202319 June - 3 July High pressure is likely to become less dominant with time, especially in the south with low pressure likely to approach from the near Continent. Northern areas may hang on to the largely dry conditions, but southern areas will see an increased risk of occasional heavy rain or thunderstorms from time to time. Any changes will be slow though, and there will still be plenty of dry and warm, sunny weather between any rain or thunderstorms, with temperatures widely above average, perhaps significantly so.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 4 June 2023 -
Excel May 2023 CET.xlsx
Summary PDF May 2023 Summary.pdf
Summary PDF Overall May 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly
5 players got it spot on.
Methuselah, Weather Observer, Catbrainz, Don and MetwatchIn total 41 were within 0.5c.
Seasonal
Not that much change with
Leo97t winning (1st last month), rwtwm 2nd (from 3rd) and The PIT 3rd (from 4th)
Overall
Not that much change with
Leo97t staying in the lead, DR(S)NO 2nd (from 4th) and The PIT staying 3rd.
Leo97t has every forecsast within 0.3c so far this year.
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15.4c and 50mm.
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Looking at the GFS and ECMWF keeps the settled conditions until T+240. There are 1 or 2 signs of some brief incursions of low pressure at times to T+384 (14th June), current indications suggest these will be from the South or South West and be short lived with more settled conditions returning within 48 hours. Total rainfall amounts from GFS is negligible to T+240. After this far more variation with the 3 most recent runs suggesting 5-10mm of rain by T+384.
Met Office Thoughts
UK long range weather forecast
3-12 June Settled conditions are likely to dominate throughout this period with plenty of dry and bright weather across the country, the best of the sunny spells expected across the west. Some low cloud is likely in eastern areas early each day, but this will tend to burn back towards to the North Sea coastline during the day. By the end of the period, there is an outside chance of some occasionally thundery showers and slightly stronger winds reaching southern areas. Generally feeling warm by day, especially in the sheltered west. However, an onshore breeze from the North Sea means that it is likely to feel cooler in eastern areas, especially the southeast. Chilly under clear skies by night in the north and west, with some patchy fog possible in prone spots.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 29 May 202313-27 June By the end of June, northern areas are most likely to see a continuation of mostly dry conditions and light winds, while showers and stronger winds are likely to become more prevalent in the south. In general, temperatures are likely to be above average but eastern coastal areas may continue to feel slightly cooler in the presence of onshore winds.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 29 May 2023Indicative Charts
1. Current Synoptic Pattern
2. T+144 GFS High Pressure still in charge but variation on a theme
3. T+240 GFS Low Pressure starting to edge in from the South West
4. T+240 ECM High Pressure edging North
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The gates at Glastonbury open one month today, on Wednesday June 21 with the festival closing on Sunday June 25. Looking at the current models, the next 10 sees settled and dry conditions remaining very much in charge. Some initial signs of turning a little less settled for a spell thereafter at least according to GFS.
Met Office Longer Range Outlook - 5th to 19th June.
Spells of unsettled weather are possible in the south of England and Wales, with potentially thundery showers and more extended periods of rain. The northern half of the UK is more likely to see settled and dry conditions, with generally light winds inland and stronger sea breezes in coastal regions. Temperatures likely to stay above average for the time of year, though eastern coastal areas may feel cooler due to the stronger onshore winds.
However the chance of a dry settled spell lasting from now for a month always seemed pretty remote.
I will keep posting a bit in here this year, next update probably next weekend.
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ExcelApr 2023 CET.xlsx
Monthly
2 players got it spot on.
virtualsphere and Summer Sun
Seasonal
A new 1-2-3 with
Leo97t , davehsug and rwtwm
Overall
No changes in the overall 1-2-3 with
Leo97t, davehsug and The PIT
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12c and 65mm.
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Downloads
PDF SummaryMar 2023 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall SummaryMar 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly SpreadsheetMar 2023 CET.xlsxMonthly
5 players this month within 0.1cThe PIT who got 7.0c spot on and Typhoon John, Leo97t, snowray and davehsug0.1c out.
Seasonal
The Spring competition largely matches the Monthly competition.
Overall
A few changes in the Top 5 this month, with 2 new Entrants.
Leo97t 1st (from 2nd)
davehsug 2nd (from 5th)
The PIT 3rd (from 15th)
Typhoon John 4th (from 16th)
DR(S)NO 5th (from 3rd)
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9.1c and 55mm.
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Files
Winter Final Result (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Winter.pdf
Overall (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Summary (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Summary.pdf
Excel full details -> Feb 23 CET.xlsx
Monthly
One player DR(S)NO got 6.5c spot on with 3 other players only 0.1c out. Typhoon John, Leo97t and Mr Maunder.
In total 18 were within 0.5c.
Seasonal
The result of winter 2022/23 shows
feb1991blizzard was 1st (from 5th)
Leo97t was 2nd (from 8th)
DR(S)NO was 3rd (from 17th)
Overall
The overall scores very closely match the seasonal scores.
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6.8c and 68mm
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Downloads
Jan 23 CET.xlsxJan 2023 Summary.pdf
Monthly
This month was forecast pretty well, with 32 within 0.5c.
2 Players got it spot on. Mapantz and Summer Sun.
Seasonal
Mapantz takes the lead after winning this month.
Man With Beard, seaside 60, Thundery wintry showers and feb1991blizzard complete the Top 5.
Overall
The same top 10 as the Seasonal competition.
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4.8c and 70mm
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Monthly
Three players got 3.4c spot on.SouthLondonCold, feb1991blizzard and Thundery wintry showers.
Interestingly the average (mean) entry was 3.5c, so only 0.1c out.
Given the very cold synoptic outlook at the start of the month, this goes to show how well this month was forecast.
Seasonal and Monthly
With no late entry penalties for the Top 10, the overall rankings match that of the December Monthly Result.
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Downloads
ExcelDec 22 CET.xlsx
PDF summary SheetDec 2022 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall Scores SummaryDec 2022 Summary Overall.pdf-
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5.3c and 110mm
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Thanks to all those competing in the CET competition and also to Roger for running the Rainfall version.
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July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
PDF Summaries July 2023 Summary.pdf July 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Excel July 2023 CET.xlsx
Monthly
Just the one spot on entry this month. I remember Atlantic 252
Summer Sun (0.1c) and Dancerwithwings (0.3c) complete the top 3.
Seasonal
Big Changes in the seasonal Competition.
The top 3
Dancerwithwings 1st (from 4th)
Summer Sun 2nd (from 11th)
jonboy 3rd (unchanged)
Overall
The top 6 last month remains the same but with some ordering changes.
Summer Sun 1st (from 6th)
Leo97t 2nd (from 1st)
DR(S)NO 3rd (from 2nd)
Metwatch 4th (from 5th)
reef is 5th (from 3rd)
The PIT is 6th (from 4th)