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tollgateiow

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Posts posted by tollgateiow

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by tollgateiow

    Hi Stuart, The latest update that you have posted is yesterdays even though the Met Office say they updated it at 0400 Sat 08 Nov 2014 today.

    Todays update is usually posted during the afternoon, you can tell if it is todays because the date at the bottom will say 1600 Sat 08 Nov 2014.

    I have emailed the Met Office  saying that it causes confusion and they said they are working on a solution to the problem.

    • Like 1

    Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just watched the forecast on the BBC news with Matt Taylor and it's all 'on' as far as I could see with 70-80 gusts still forecast, even up to 90! So the MetO is still portraying this as a severe storm event. Edit: the MetO, not the media! We know how some can ramp this type of event.

    Yes I saw it too, his report half an hour earlier said 60-70 mph gusts with some places seeing 80mph so they must haver some newer info in.

    Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Latest shipping forecast for Wight is grim....

    "Wight

    Gale warnings - Issued: 0341 UTC Sun 27 Oct

    Southwesterly severe gale force 9 increasing violent storm force 11 later

    Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Sun 27 Oct

    Wind

    Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, increasing viloent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later.

    Sea State

    Rough or very rough, becoming high.

    Weather

    Thundery showers, then rain.

    Visibility

    Good, becoming poor."

    Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There is a computer model minefield in the further outlook with a high chance of them making a complete dogs breakfast over the low depicted for the latter part of next week. It seems reasonable to suggest that our ridge/attempted trough pattern is going to persist and that whatever degree of trough element verifies next week will be followed by another element of ridging, most probably slighly further south thereafter.

     

    If one picks the bones through these for suggestions for what any trough may do next week, then there are plenty of them - maybe too many.

    Posted Image

    Impossible to start to give any detail beyond the weekend other than probably a fair warm start across the south, then some attempt at a more unsettled shot of weather (of some type) and this followed maybe to some kind of renewed split in the weather from NW to SE.

    Think you might have it spot on Tamara, particularly about a renewed  NW/SE split,latest UMMO 6-15 certainly thinks so too.

    • Like 1

    METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This is what the UKMO were predicting on 6th December for the period we are just entering, just about the opposite of what we are getting and about to get I would say. So hopefully their current predictions will be wrong too! I know it doesn't always work like that but you can but hope....

    UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2012 to Friday 4 Jan 2013:

    Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

    Updated: 1136 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Actually, I remember they actually predicted that the first week of December would be largely above average, returning to near normal later in the month.

    I only check it now and then, but they definitely predicted that the first week would be mild. It was in the 16-30 day outlook a few days ago.

    This is what the Met Office actually predicted issued on 17th November: Pretty accurate really

    UK Outlook for Friday 2 Dec 2011 to Friday 16 Dec 2011:

    The first half of December should see some rather unsettled and changeable weather, particularly towards the north and west. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal average, whilst some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single-figure degrees Celsius maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, chiefly in the west at first, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the recent mild spell.

    Updated: 1159 on Thu 17 Nov 2011

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