Ruben Amsterdam

According to GFS06 fi, the vortex reforms slightly, but pressure on the vortex is ramped up again at the end of the run Same signature at 10hPa.

It's back. And a tiny bit stronger again (at 10hPa) than the 12z run.

Thanks for the info! It makes complete sense A spectacular looking 30 hPa graph by JMA this morning. Spectacularly wrong, of course .

Hi Sebastiaan, I'm still not sure about what's actually plotted (it's not a standardized something, as the average line is not at 1) on the y-axis of this graph, but that's not my main point. By the way, do they refer to wave 1 and 2, or shorter waves as well? This graph shows only troposferic wave-activity. Couldn't it be possible -hypothetically- that the maximum in february is forced by the stratosphere, i.e. by some sort of wave-induced event (either minor or major warming) in mid-january? My point being: how relevant is troposferic wave (1/2) activity? Last years wave-1 activity was of course high during and after the SSW, but I'm not exactly blown away by the troposferic wave response. Or should we be looking at wave-3 and up? And yes, I would love skating on the canals and lakes here. You know I'm a big fan. Even a minor event or a discplaced vortex may bring the ice we want Cheers and merry Xmass

Hi all, my first post on this forum. I've been reading all the brilliant posts here for some two years and decided to sign up! This forum stirred my interest in the stratosphere and the way we can (potentially) use it for long range weather forecasts. You really are doing a nice job here, keep up the good work! I spotted something new in the GFS06z FI: a pulse of warming over the Canadian sector. Might be just the push over the edge (of the cliff) our beloved vortex needs?