[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking good, the micro-details hardly matter - defo cold slider-potential - snow's a-comin!

  

Unfortunately that’s low ground rain.  Only snow on high ground over northern hills.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

56 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Blimey if it’s 6c in January with a chart like that then I think our winters will well and truly be over. 

It’s a northerly with plenty of temperature modification due to the large expanse of water it will be crossing.  This could all change though and we could see a much better outcome if the wind veers more to the north east/east.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cherry picking but imagine if we can get this Perb outcome by next Fri.

Looks good on paper, but in reality would give rain/sleet in the south with daytime temperatures around 6 degrees.  Snow up north though.  I’m waiting for the real deal from the east!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

12 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Surely the ECM would see snow right upto South Wales and central England from that low pressure?

Yes, South Wales would be in the sweet spot, as per Jan 82, I was there?

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

I have a feeling that future runs will show the high further south which will water down the easterlies.  My gut feeling is that the coldest weather will head further south into France and Spain.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really like the nw  /  se  jet profile on the ukmo 12z @ T+144 hours which screams wintry reload after reload with snow showers, ice and frosts, even some frontal and back edge snow at times too!

Great if it’s showers, mostly of rain wanted! Hopefully we see something coming from the east soon, which is the direction that delivers true winter conditions.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, what a run, I can't contain my enthusiasm! cold shots galore with frosts, ice and snow showers / frontal rain / sleet and snow rapidly following each other across the uk on the Gfs 12z hardly drawing breath before the next cold shot sweeps in from the w / nw with extra zing..exciting stuff if you're in the firing line, which most of us would be!!

Potentially the most interesting / exciting period of this winter so far on a nationwide scale is almost upon us..starting with very cold air seeping in from the east through the first half of next week with severe frosts and even snow for some areas ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄!!

I can’t see what the excitement is about for next week, yes it will turn colder and there are some snow opportunities but once the Atlantic comes through, we are looking at marginality at best.  Snow on high ground in the north west but that’s just standard winter weather from north westerlies.  The charts alway look impressive showing cold uppers with north westerlies coming out of Greenland but they very rarely deliver for the majority of the population.  Last time we had a similar set up it was mostly rain throughout England and Wales apart from elevation. Southern Scotland did well.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes  indeed  After this weekends milder blip  then there is a steady decline in  Uppers.   Around the 3rd  there is quite a cluster going for   uppers between -5  to -10   so  certainly a move to colder conditions.  Looking at the snow row  it also shows  chances of the white stuff   unheard of in post biblical times  south of the M4   at least it is something to watch.

Yes, the trend is promising for coldies.  The action will be for the southern half of the UK this time around.  This will be the coldest spell of the winter, ice days and snow chances, especially in the south.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Some people are expecting too much from this set up.  it’s looking like being windy at times with plenty of rain and showers, snow on high ground and occasionally at lower levels.  Temperatures just below normal.  Night time temperatures dropping later in the week, once the wind calms down.  I really can’t see anything else unless there are upgrades.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

but if the deep low is being overplayed, it would likely track further south, with less mixing out of the cold uppers and allowing the colder air in general to stay further south. consequently, this would in turn, bring the snow risk further south. you can't have it both ways!

personally i'm not expecting much snow, if any, for my region (the south east) but i'm certainly not discounting it. however, areas further north and west could see significant snowfall even to lower levels. 

anyway, you say "we"- you live in canada!

Regardless of whether the low pressure area moves further south is irrelevant in this set up.  I know certain members are getting excited, but the reality is that there is too much temperature modification due to the huge stretch of water that the air will travel.  High ground will do well, especially in the north.  A more northerly adjustment will of course lower the temperatures but by then the shower activity will reduce to north facing coasts and hills.  I know my take on it won’t be popular but I am only basing it on knowledge and past experience of this type of weather pattern.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

I fully expect a watering down of the cold potential from this nnw set up.  Obviously there will be snow for the more favoured places before any showers die out later in the period, but these maritime setups rarely deliver to wide areas of the country.  I see more opportunities developing later in the month as the wind direction changes with more of an easterly component.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I’m also not convinced of this easterly, especially as the latest weather on news 24 shows milder temperatures by mid week coming from the west.  There is no model agreement between the big 3 which also throws up further doubts.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

40 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I can assure yourself if as modeled that flow takes a-hold you can expect a dip below -8 hpa as the jet dives and that stagnant US- FREEZER , air begin to awash eastward.

Again a very unusual situ unfolding ..

 

Unfortunately the temperature will be too modified by the Atlantic for any interest, especially for those in the south, this is why we all crave a beasterly, it’s the real deal.  PM rarely delivers.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the outputs have not shown a true easterly anyway.  I would suggest that the weekend outlook is rather cold, rather dry, then becoming wet and windy from the West by mid next week.  This is, as it stands today, but of course there is the chance of upgrades, but we need to see these soon!

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Looking at the latest outputs, I’m am not seeing what most coldies desire which is a true easterly or direct easterly.  Let’s hope that future outputs show an improvement.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Plenty of wintry interest on the Gfs 12z, especially for the n / nw in what looks like a very unsettled / disruptive outlook with lots of wet and windy weather but snow at times for some.

I wouldn't take much notice of Gfs snow projections from the west, they are always exaggerated.  It'll be rain with snow on highest ground in the north.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

3 hours ago, booferking said:

It would be good to hear your outlook for Jan saying that you got the month of Dec right? Thanks

January is shaping up to start off unsettled with wet and windy weather.  It will turn colder, initially from the northwest, then from the east, which will bring severe frosts and snow.  The snow will effect eastern counties at first.  Areas of snow will spread in from the southwest at times.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Fair to say the end of the Ecm 12z doesn't indicate a return to benign anticyclonic weather any time soon after..becomes increasingly unsettled and cold enough for snow on northern hills at times.

 Not good for coldies.  Have to wait  2/3 weeks for the fun to start.  I must say I am pleased with my forecasting methods as I did forecast this warm December way back in November.

 

Snow Grain replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers

I think there is every chance of a warm December, with temperatures well above average. I think the Russian high will play a... 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

58 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Xmas snow back on for the uk.

That would bring wet and windy weather, with some snow at elevation.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Well ECM. This is different. Look at the uppers into Europe at 192 and compare to GFS. Would happily take this!

Why?

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

46 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would bank that right now over this high malarkey and yes even  the SOUTH EAST gets snow and the cold shot last up to the big day.

That would bring breezy weather with rain for most.  Great if you want a white Christmas on Ben Nevis.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

This really is a forecasters nightmare John Hammond speaking last night of Milder Weather more likely to return for next week as they were more sure than the day before, now were back to square one again with this.

This really is brilliant model watching im loving every minute of it.

I would stick with what john Hammond said, the met office have far more information.  The charts everyone keeps hanging their hopes on are generally pants.  Surely after years of enduring countless false hopes, and claiming that the ecm etc. have had their reputation dented, the people in here should be a lot wiser.  It's pointless watching charts swing either way from day to day.  If easterlies etc. are coming, they tend to show up at shorter notice, not 14 days out.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 00z is how December should start! It's what coldies deserve

Looks good but in reality we are looking at daytime temps of 3 to 4 in the north and 5 to 7 in the south, due to the moderation of the sea.  Night time frosts would be hard though.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, from one who was a mere nipper, back in the days of Jack Armstrong, Bert Foord, Micheal Hunt, Michael Fish, Ian McAskill, Jack Scot - and so many others, I have only the utmost admiration for the Met Office...

Why are so many folk anti Met Office? The Met, together with computer models from all over the world, combine to give us all the best information available??

Be grateful?

There are many who do not like the met office, when they disagree with the models that they are viewing showing whiteout conditions, ice days etc.  The met office are always right, so it's best to check with them before coming to any conclusions regarding dodgy model outputs that change several times a day.