[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

lovely retrogression

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

NAO going through the floor I would imagine

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

15 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Is that v slow? ~50 Km/h so 30 mph...?

For comparison, this is the graph of zonal wind against time for 18z. Needs to dip under 0 m/s for an SSW i think

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Zonal winds at 10hPa 60N dropping to 14.6 m/s at T384

 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Heights lowering in the Med, decent cold to tap into

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

A lot colder than ECM at 192

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Nice retrogression of high in FI, hopefully this shows in the morning 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

That low near Cornwall edging slightly closer i think

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

nice wedge of high pressure near Greenland in FI

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Have you chart above that shows last full SSW during a winter period.  what site is it you get these charts Thanks

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2015_MERRA_NH.html

Last technical SSW in mid winter was Jan 2013:

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Record breaking in terms of zonal winds but too late in the season to have much impact

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Your reading it wrong @IDO its the error so the higher the number the worse the model

means 18z is the worse...

The higher the number the better

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Great 18z run

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Quite strong Greenland blocking at the end of the run

[CFSv2 getting a fix for its 'cold bias']

This fix was to remove the anomalous cold pool in the western Atlantic at initialization I believe, so it shouldn't impact future forecasts

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

GFS showing poss ex-hurricane swinging to north of UK, could be a turbulent time for the models in the longer range

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

Looks like a very deep low over the pole for the time of year

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

GFS 18z very warm / hot run, hopefully the ECM jumps onboard soon

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

NAEFS mode fcst consistent with other models showing brief warm spell, before the pattern flattens out

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

GFS 12z shows HP building in strongly deep in FI

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

ECM 12z 240h would bring up some milder air the following frames

 

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Both GFS and ECM 12z runs show south-easterly winds and a brief surge of warm air at day 8

[Storm Katie]

AROME 1.3km simulated satellite imagery for 0600 with an eye-like feature over central southern counties

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Greenland / Polar block on GFS 12z

 

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

28 minutes ago, IDO said:

I apologise if I am wrong but last year I read that an SSW occurred: http://www.wsi.com/blog/a-strong-stratospheric-warming-event-currently-underway-implications

I remember lots of expectations from members with the SSW forecast.

No Technical SSW last year.. That article was published late March and I believe was a final warming which occurs every year