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Generalelectrix

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Posts posted by Generalelectrix

    Possible storm/wind event - 9th December onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Generalelectrix

    Hi, it is most probably going to boil down to a nowcast event in the end, Lets closely check out  the coming model runs and take it from there, see how things pan out, Vivensworld wrote a post pointing in a such direction. Too much can change at short notice before the anticipated event, we have witnessed this so often now. Things will get interesting as of tomorrow noon or so (model wise)

     

    Regards

     

    Ralph

     

    @ Alexisj9: There have been a couple of Sting jet events since 1987, the event needent be termed as apocalyptical, it is just an area where even stronger winds get mixed down to the surface from the jet at high altitude and should be taken into account..

    Possible storm/wind event - 9th December onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Generalelectrix

    Hi @ all

    I hear talk of bombogenesis :bomb:

     

    Theres no balls like snowballs wrote:

     

    Ferocious jet stream N.Atlantic. Developing wave mid Atlantic. Will cross central UK Thu night. Gales S. Snow N.Eng.

    post-115-0-65458700-1418215551_thumb.png 

    post-115-0-67811300-1418215641_thumb.png

     

    very interesting second chart, cheers for posting :good:

    Note the back bent occlusion, one of the signatures of a Keyser-Shapiro type cyclone..... somebody was asking about the possibility of a Sting Jet event...

    We shall have to watch the IR Satpic closely for an obvious  dry intrusion then.

     

    regards

     

    Ralph

     

    Edit: @ Luke: Nice to see you in the forum again mate!

     

    Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hi@all

    Great pics of the storm up east, thanks for posting. Quite unexpectedly potent development so late in the season, wonder whether there is more in store. The temperature of the seawater surrounding the UK is going to play a great role here..

     

    @ chrisbell-nottheforecaster: I woldnt really classify it as an MCS, it was more of a strong multicell. To classify as an MCS for example the uninterrupted span of precipitation must be at least 60 Miles across in any direction, and this wasnt the case. MCS for example are these massive systems which form on a regular basis over the south of France in summer( with uninterrupted and cold cloud top on Infrared Satpic) which then track N-NE, skim the southeast UK and cause great frustration in the Netweather community, but provide great lightshows over places like Belgium :rolleyes:

     

    Well, lets hope there will be yet another event this year to get the forum buzzing once more..

     

    Regards

     

    Ralph

    Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Generalelectrix

    @ Timeless: wouldnt be too sure whether it will settle down in the second half of this month, the model outputs are somewhat unsteady and varying atm.  GFS does have a possibility of a "cold blast from the east" after the 20th, but IMHO that still belongs to the realms of speculation. We shall see and for now enjoy the treat of a persisting convective season, ey?

     

    BTW, found a news article  from a Swiss newspaper re the storm in the Basle district on Sunday, southern suburbs got pretty much mullered by hail, with amazing pics:

     

    http://www.20min.ch/schweiz/basel/story/Gewitter-verhagelt-Baselbietern-den-Sonntag-14366690 (the interviewed Met stated it was probably a supercell, in reality a multicell it was though)

     

    Here a pic taken by the same photographer of the pic in the link of my previous post:

     

    http://abload.de/img/img_4289kpp87.jpg

     

    It depicts a healthy feeder line of Cu and even a TCu with pileus leading into the main complex, something you would expect to see in summer in the destabilizing conditions ahead of a fast moving cold front,

    but for October it is a rare sight I would say..

     

    Hope not getting too much off topic :angel:

     

    Have a good night all, maybe with flashes and rumbles for some :good:

     

    Ralph

     

     

    Edit Re: Sussex Jules` report, it never ceases to amaze me how few buildings in the UK have lightning conductors as compared to buildings on the continent...

    Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Generalelectrix

    Hi @ all

    The Lady has just sent me an email : no phoning her at work today in Farnham, a massive CG has just fried the phone system. Wellwell, pretty thundery October in the UK by the looks, but same thundery story here in Germany too, I am working in Constance atm and had thunder on Sunday and Tuesday. 

    Here is the link to a picture taken on Sunday by a member of the Swiss met forum of a paticularly nasty specimen tracking from the Basle area in Switzerland over the border to Germany, Black Forest. The Pic was taken from the Black forest facing SW :blink2:

     

    http://abload.de/img/20141006_storm5okj0.jpg

     

    Cloud top at 14 (!) kilometers, spawned widespread hail and possibly a tornado on the french side in an earlier stage of development.... (incredible piccie for October, July would be more appropriate)

     

     

    Lightning activity over the UK seems to be easing off a wee bit right now..

     

    Regards

     

    Ralph

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Quote Poseidon: "

    Had a "nearly" thunderstorm cell here yesterday. Very low, very dark cloud base with a long swirling well defined gust front. Behind was that weird coloured sky that you sometimes get with a thunderstorm. Rained for a while with some gusty wind but no sferics in the end. It did produce plenty of lightning when it hit the North Sea though.."

     

    Jep, observed that one near Rayleigh yesterday evening. You could literally see the cloud base lower and the convection grow deeper as the cell started to draw in moist warm air from the North Sea. (The water is quite warm right now) Impressive it was. The cool gusts was the cold wind in the upper layers getting mixed down to ground level under the convection..

     

    Ralph

    • Like 1

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Generalelectrix

    Hi@ all

    Had some business to do in Essex yesterday and it was evening when I was returning home via the Dartford bridge. At that time some forcing occurred and showers were popping up everywhere. Sometimes a traffic jam on the Bridge can have its positive aspects, the view was quite spectacular :good:

    Unfortunately they were quite high based and low topped, so no T&L but did get a bucketing though near the Gatwick turnoff on the M25.

    Would have liked to post one or two charts explaining why that was so yesterday but the netweather server just doesnt seem to accept uploads from me, strange, but maybe its because Im just too daft or that Im a Kraut :p

    Next couple of days looking bleak, we need some more sustained warm weather to kick off some decent convection, hope next week pans out (although the different models have outputs which almost contradict each other) Lets wait and see.

     

    Cheers

     

    Ralph

    • Like 1

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hi@ all

    Interesting convection today in the London area, am there right now and took a little time to observe a promising cell developing NE of Farnham. followed it a bit toward Elstead, it fizzled shortly afterwards. Too high based and flat topped, no deep convection there. Also a (local?) dry intrusion had taken a substantial bite out of the Cb halfway up. Small dry intrusions can aid convection by causing evaporative cooling on the outer side of the cloud but today was just too much....

     

    Hope something happens while im in the UK

     

    Cheers

     

    Ralph

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    @ John Holmes: yes, indeed so, the upper layers ahead of warm fronts have such a high layer of moisture in them that the sky tends to get hazy and full of cirrus patches that the contrails arent easy to make out anymore, especially the closer the warm front gets to your location. Those contrails also consist of ice crystals, even if the warm air aloft preceeding the WF is not as "cold" as usual, it is nevertheless still below freezing point. Interesting to learn about the MINTRA level, it surely was important during daytime raids under clear skies, if you look at old footage you can see that piston engined planes running on petrol also spewed out a great deal of water vapour, and that made those flying fortresses visible from far, hence sitting ducks...

     

    Ralph

    Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hi@all

    To answer Speedways question: Yes, your observation is connected to the rise of moisture level in the upper atmosphere, this is normally the case ahead of a cold front or disturbance, where large amounts of

    moisture are transported to high levels by deep convection such as Cumulonimbus clouds. (Thunderstorm exhaust gasses, so to speak :rolleyes: ) This moist air is transported aloft ahead of a frontal or storm system

    and when jet aeroplanes fly through this level of air the hot exhaust gases from the turbines, which contain a lot of water as a product of the cumbustion of kerosene, will condensate to form ice crystals, the so called contrails. If the weather conditions are stable upstream and air aloft is dry the ice crystals sublime (go from a solid form directly to gaseous form) and the contrail disappears soon after the plane has passed. If the level of moisture is high then sublimation cannot take place and the contrail will stay in place for a long time or even spread when enough moisture up there spawns the formation of more ice crystals. Just for interests sake: have a look at an actual (not progged) Skew-t diagram made a few hours before a cold front crosses over.

     

    Ralph

    • Like 2

    Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Over for SE England now stormwise in my opinion,we have lost the cloud but a change to a breezy SW flow has replaced it.Its feeling fresher even ahead of the cold front.We have also lost the glorious thundery/tropical convective skys here and replaced with standard 'cotton wool cumulas".I would imagine North of London the place to be now?

     

    Over for SE England now stormwise in my opinion,we have lost the cloud but a change to a breezy SW flow has replaced it.Its feeling fresher even ahead of the cold front.We have also lost the glorious thundery/tropical convective skys here and replaced with standard 'cotton wool cumulas".I would imagine North of London the place to be now?

     

    Hard to determine exact position of front right now: Cold sector getting a move on eatwards in the south, warm sector bulging back westwards in the midlands and to add some spice to it all a convergence line northwards. Quite tricky, ey? :crazy:

     

    Ralph

    Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Quote AWD:

     

    "Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight. 

    Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas. "                 :good: 

     

    Thats put the whole situation in a nutshell, with emphasis on "could" and "anywhere"   The model outputs are running around in circles ATM, now it looks like quite some action for the west midlands in the early morning hours for a change, and I will await the last run before the event to see how it is NOT going to take place! (this is especially referring to GFS) 

    We wait and see....

     

    Ralph

    • Like 1

    Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hi@all

    Quote Willsy:

    "anyone recon last night was an mcc? (mesoscale convective complex) "

     

    no, definitely not, a MCC should have an area of cloud top 100000 sq kms at -32 deg C and 50000sq kms at -52 deg C and in addition maintain these properties for at least 6 hrs to be classified as such.

    Last night just was an organised squally line of storms, didnt even make it to a bow echo judging from the radar images, mind you it was close to becoming one by a whisker, an intensity I personally hadnt 

    reckoned with TBH.

    Am pondering the charts right now Re tonight and tomorrow, surprise in store? Have to wait one further run.... :cc_confused: 

     

    Cheers

     

    Ralph

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