cfbath
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Posts posted by cfbath
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All this uncertainty surrounding next week and next weekend is certainly making it hard to know if it'll be wellies or trainers for Glastonbury.
Would it be fair to say we are trending towards a showery pattern next week with potential HP building back in for the weekend?
Also, I was wondering if someone could let me know what times the ECM model updates? I'm aware of the GFS times but struggling to find online what time to expect the ECM runs.
Many Thanks
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I tend to only frequent or "lurk" within these forums in the run up to my beloved Glastonbury festival to see what ground conditions will be like in the days leading to it and also for overhead conditions when i'm on site myself. Everyone would have seen pictures in the past to show what rain onsite is capable of doing to the floor!
I love reading everyone's posts (although given it's less than 2 weeks away now i'd love them to be more positive for next weekend onwards!)
I'd quite like it if the "payback" spoken about following the potential hot spell could wait until 27th June if possible please
Keep up the good work all.
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Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head.
Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather)
Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain?
To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!
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Just a point from a casual observer with very little knowledge of how to evaluate the model outputs, it would be shame for posters who articulate their points in such a good way to be put off posting due to the apparent trolling coming from others.
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Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output?
Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?
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As it's a bleak morning outside and the mood in here is seemingly low thought i'd just say a huge thanks to all who share their interpretation of the model outputs.
I tend to only frequent or "lurk" within these forums in the run up to my beloved Glastonbury festival to see what ground conditions will be like in the weeks leading to it and also for overhead conditions when i'm on site myself.
I love reading everyone's posts (although given it's only 2 and a half weeks away i'd love them to be more positive!)
It's great to see how passionate everyone is!
Keep up the good work all
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I've been following this thread with great interest. Thanks to all those who take their time to dissect the models for us less so able!
Currently in the process of sending out a communication to all of my staff (Bristol / SW based) regarding the forecast disruption over the course of tomorrow and Friday.
Looks to me as if we may get off lightly down here however...!
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16 minutes ago, simshady said:
A nice cool down over the next week or so with some much needed rain. Fresher!
On the plus side that'll mean the grass seed I put down last week will finally get a decent watering!
On the down side the breakdown is happening all to close to Glastonbury for my liking with not too many signs of changing before I go to the festival on Tues 21st...
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All I'm after is a dry weds & thurs so people can set up their tents without rain and then be able to sit on the grass and chill.
How are we looking for that?
To me it looks as though there will be around 7-10mm of rain between tues of next week and Saturday. Is that a lot? I'm not really clued up...
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Looks to me as if it'll be a typical Glastonbury!
I still don't see anything bad enough in these charts to feel down trodden about.
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JackOne, Thanks for all you do for us Glasto goers.
When will you be publishing your next blog? How regularly can we expect updates as we get closer to the fest?
Looking at the GFS charts there seems to be some promising signs.
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Business as usual for all us down South then. Was really hoping for a decent covering. 2/3 years since we've seen anything meaningful down this way.
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I too am watching this breakdown with vested interest.
The models don't look good for those in the South West who would love to see a continuation of dry weather (especially those at Glastonbury)
It'll be interesting to see if the GFS pushes the low further South so the UK gets away with a near miss rather than feeling the full force.
Is it likely that the rainfall will be heavy? or are we talking mm's rather than cm's?
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
That latest GFS run is giving me all the feelings heading towards Glastonbury