kimb
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Posts posted by kimb
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The main thing I think is the deep blues that show on the GFS later in the run to the North West, meaning very Atlantic dominated - mild and wet !
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Thanks CS, yes there is a trend now for the Atlantic to come back in as we go to the last week of the month.
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Smiler when is this cold shot coming ? Even though things are looking a little more settled there is still a lot of low pressure to the NW which I think is where we don't want it !
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Well no sign of anything cold but I think the GFS especially the 'para' has backed away from bringing the wet and windy stuff in !
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I think both the GFS and GFS P might end up in the shredder this evening. They do seem very flat upstream and even though theres expected to be some de-amplification they're very progressive with this.
Theres quite an important difference between the UKMO at T144hrs and the GFS/GFS P over the mid west USA and this effects the dig of troughing out of western Greenland.
It also has a more developed shortwave in Arctic Canada, the GFS and its new just as flat bias off spring will just drive all the energy east.
If the ECM follows the UKMO then we get a chance of more digging south of that Atlantic troughing.
Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.
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No updates this morning regarding the strat? Hmmm something might be afoot!! Hopefully continue with a strong warming and wave 2 attack when matt and the other guys update us! !
I think it was looking from the runs last night that a warming was less likely ?
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Mmmm. Long way out but nice to see
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111400/gfsnh-0-384.png?0
Reminds me of something a few Decembers ago
That's a long way out isn't it ? The reality is wet windy and mild I think !
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I think looking at the lows to the North West though its just a matter of time before we have the set-up that we had last winter and we know how long that lasted !
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Thanks for the upbeat outlook Steve ! What I found last year though was then Atlantic dominate charts were shown at day 7 or so they always happened !
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Horrible models again, the possible settled spell now a distant memory, wind and rain all the way !
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Sorry I phrased that rather badly.Of course one needs to look at the bigger picture I.e.stratospheric modelling too.I maintain that the latter stages of the ECM are cool/cold and the re-organisation /re-location of the vortex does not end winter purely because of the strength of it Last year
Hi, yes but they seem to be thinking in America that they could see a repeat of last winter. Let's hope not !
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Awful in what respect?
It looks standard fayre to me with a cold N/W shot in the latter stages.All set up nicely for early winter.(Grasshopper)
I will post charts when I am home.
? The latter part is exactly like what we had all last winter is it not ? Absolutely horrible.
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Hi Steve
I thought you said to disregard the 06z run as it was the most unreliable.
From my not very experienced view point the charts are looking like last year where the Atlantic came in late November and never left !
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From what i can see the gfs might be westerly dominated but not its long lost brother and the one that we should be using the gfs parallel! ! Thats showing lows sliding under an arcitc/icelandic black! ! Fast forward ukmo and that will probably do the same if not then probably be a frosty high! ! Ecm still coming out!!
Yes - and is like the GFS !
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A horrible GFS, very wet and mild I think ! ECM going the same way ?
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Stongingly mild air approaching us from the south at the end of the reliable tieframe on the12z GFS
Low teens to start
Then warmer
Meantime towards the end of the run cold air into Scandinavia
But will never reach us
GFS Parallel stays toasty right to the end
Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!
Hi yes could be, the forecasters in America are now getting excited about a repeat of last winter for them !
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Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe
Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!
That's what I was looking at this morning on the GFS, and would tie in with the METO forecast for Westerlies returning by the end of the 15 day period.
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Looks like gfs parallel is finally smelling the coffee this morning!!!both the gfs are improvements on yesterday's 00z runs although fi could be better!!!ecm looks fine so far and ukmo is better than yesterday mornings run!
It looks to me that the models are wanting to take the High pressure to the North away later on as the Atlantic comes back.
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Ukmo is fab !!!!
Someone post the UKMO 144 & the identical nov 2010 chart!!!
Hi Steve, I'm guessing you say that because their is a loop over of High pressure towards Greenland ? But where does any cold for the UK come from ? It's not going to be the East ?
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Big differences in opinions in here this morning.
All models agree up to about +100.
The GFS (as knocker alludes) builds a large low anonamly over NE Canada. This has major impacts on the GFS and GFS(p) suites, in that it prevents the high pressure regressing back into Greenland.
It therefore goes on to keep the high back into NE and Central Europe. Hence the UK stays under the Atlantic influence. All logical.
However the good news for coldies is as Cloud10 alludes - look what happens to Moscow and Eatern Europe.
At the other end of the scale is ECM yesterday, which has full retrogression to Scandi allowing the polar vortex to approach us from the North. THe ECM(0) backs down from this Super progressive run, but still ends up with a decent easterly. My reading of the other models is that all of them (except GEM) tend towards and are not far away from the ECM(0) solution.
The GEM starts of on the track of a full blown easterly (ala ECM), but collapses the high to the north under the force of the atlantic low pressure coming out of the US.
So I make it that once again it will come down as to has modelled the NE USA and Newfoundland correctly. Why is it so critical year in and year out to our weather?
MIA
But the easterly isn't cold is it or am I reading it wrong ? What would be the point with the colder air all up North ?
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Am I allowed to be picky? I'm quite hard to please when it comes to cold synoptics so although the ECM shows an excellent trend in terms of the block being in place we don't want the pattern too far west.
It's better to see a chunk of the PV setting up in Scandi rather than moving sw towards the UK, it might look good on the charts but for longevity of cold its better to have a more eastern based negative NAO.
Hi Nick, surely we need a northerly at this time of year, what's the point of an easterly and 'eye candy' synoptics if the source is too mild, combined with the high North Sea SSTS ?
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The Weather Outlook are also going for 'mild' although the full forecast will be out at the end of November
I'm sure Ian Brown was on the radio a few years ago talking about the even larger teapot.
The large teapot ? I didn't type that ?!
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I'm a bit of novice but I'd never heard of the OPI before this winter ! Are we not looking at this and hoping that it's going to lead to something better than last year when there are loads of other things to consider as well ?
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well horrible GFS I think ! With America set for some severe cold, I think lots of people will be contemplating another repeat of last winter over here !