Hi all, happy to be back and sorry for the delay.
Ok, we're almo si done actually, almost not quite of course. But, yes, there is high confidence that we won't see many differences at the end of this week. I see that some of you is willing to put this work Under scrutiny in order to check its reliability. This is exactly what we are waiting for as well, but please, keep in mind a few things:
1) A three months mean value cannot be used for a forecast;
2) Hindcasts have been satisfactory so far, but the correlation is not as high as needed to avoid episodes of error, and unless we (or anybody else) will be able to turn it in a causality there won't be way to understand where the error lies;
3) Winter, as well as every other season, is much more than AO, the latitude of the polar jet, just to say one.
I am writing this before the end of the calcolation because we don't want to turn this thing in a challenge, will it be right or wrong? By the way, just to let you know that there is a long way to go, let me show you something else we are working on. it's still an index and it's still based on the similarity between October and winter patterns, but it's focused on zonality. Check it out here: http://www.climatemonitor.it/?p=36712
Sorry it's still in Italian but I am confident that you will find the graphics self explanatory. And you will also see that we have a problem, to differs from OPI and SAI quite a lot.
It's going to be challenging!
gg
