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Dimie10

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Posts posted by Dimie10

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    The question has to be asked 

    What is the actual  point of EC 46 ?

    If one winter storm across the pond can  completely change the NH profile and destroy the -AO in a matter of days  ?

    Not just the EC 46 I might add - various telecommunications experts were promoting  Scandy High  late Dec .

    This isn't a criticism of people,far from it ,I'm pretty sure the science behind the forecasts is sound and I love reading the contributions .

    But if the track of a winter storm can collapse a whole pattern doesn't it just mean LRFs are basically pointless ?

    Agreed. Long range forecasts are pointless, you only have to watch on here, year after year, of compete 180's in hours never mind days or weeks!! 🙈

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Wow I say...sitting here In the back garden in just shorts..over 20c due to our garden being a heat trap! And just to think we could see falling snow in 3 days time! The craziness of April for sure...even my pet cat is In complete shock! And he loves a little snow.

    Expect some unexpected suprises and some quite sharp frosts....growers beware!

    Until then get the missus an ice cream or at least mow the lawn....keep her off ya back in other words

    06_63_preciptype.png

    06_69_preciptype.png

    06_75_preciptype.png

    business-cat-working.gif

    And its not even April yet!! 

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    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

    Valentine's Day is poised to be colder than Scandinavia right here in the UK, according to forecasters.

    According to the met 1,500 mile wide snowstorm is to hit the country.

    "The Met Office warns from February 11 to February 20: "Rainfall will be limited at first with a risk of some wintry showers in the north and east, with an increasing chance of rain in western and northwestern areas later. And it warns temperatures could be "colder" than average.

    The worst of the weather is anticipated at the back end of this week and into next, with the middle of February looking like a bitingly cold one.

    By Met Office I presume you mean Daily Star?

    • Like 12

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    What an absolute massive kick in the nuts . We’ve gone from a cold dry frosty Xmas to a cold snowy Xmas to crappy wet Xmas . The models over the last week have been terrible at forecasting what the outcome was going to be . Never seems to amaze me tho it’s always the option we want ie cold/snow that never comes off . Beginning to think is there any point coming on here every winter anymore ? Unless we get a SSW we don’t seem to get winter ( and that still no guarantee) . Utterly frustrating. 

    Brilliant!! Exactly how i feel, years of following this and it more often than not results in hopes smashed!! literally goes from boom to bust in a page or two!! i give up 

    • Like 5
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    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Well there we have it . All big three models singing off the same hymn sheet for next week. Suppose better being mild and dry than wet windy and mild. Where do we go from there into run up to Christmas week ? Not sure  , but the form horse would appear for the high to sink away to the SE. However, hope I am wrong. My main thoughts are what a waste of long winter nights without any real meaningful  cold in sight.

    C

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    I concur, nothing worse in winter than mild and early darkness! At least when its cold and dark its seasonal, and i can light the fire and raise a glass! 

    • Like 5
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    Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    BTW I am mainly an avid lurker on here, but I love the cold weather and always live in hope that your educated model reading pays off. However, it is frustrating when people get carried away posting BOOM charts and saying its nailed on only for massive back tracking to occur. Is it not better to just post your predictions and see if they come off? A lot of hopecasting and disapointment seems to follow!!

    Any way i enjoy reading all your posts, heres to hoping that cold winter actually arrives this year 

    • Like 10

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

    Finally both ECM and GFS seem to be on same page as todays longer range forecast from Susan Powell from the BBC earlier today. Both models have been very far apart recently but todays Windys shows not a lot of difference for Saturday this week.  I recently noticed a good comment from an animal lover and bird enthusiast about noting nature pointers, which mainly are actually more  certain than computers. This morning at 8am, I saw what looked like a scene out of "The Day After Tomorrow"  , many flocks or skeins of birds were filling the sky at around 1000 feet.    That's unusual for this time of year.   I dont have to tell you what heading they were on do I.???...yep WEST out to the coasts of Blackpool or Liverpool or even Ireland. Where the freeze will be tempered some what by the mini climate that surrounds North West Britain. The small birds remain to be feeding heavily in our gardens, and will totally rely on us to keep them alive through this 10 day freeze. see more about saving your garden birds at the RSPB site!!!

    So here are the two maps from ECM and GFS for one day this weekend.  Theres also a huge low pressure system 952mb with very tight icobars off the Atlantic.  GFS has it sinking south, while ECM has it steady increasing the chance of blizzards almost anywhere as mean winds are associated with is up to 27mph.... I will still need to see it in Lancashire to believe snow will fall,  But Im more hopeful than a few days ago, But honestly this will possible cripple the covid vaccine turnout, if towns and citys get heavy snow, along with stranded vehicles and other problems. Spare a thought for Amanda Owen and Clive at the Yorkshire farm afar at Ravenseat, where most of my relations live not far on the high town called "Richmond", off scotch corner,M1 A1. they have already sent snaps to us off vast mounts of snow over 7-8 days already.

    Below, both models are agreeing to wintry weather by  Saturday the 6th February.  BBC weather seems to be following more or less the ECMS tracking.  To my mind the GFS seems to make a poor job of creating a coherent forecast.. that flies in opposition of other mainstream sources. stay safe and get your sledge bought before they all sell out!!!

    windy saturday 6th february. ECMWF NEW.JPG

    windy saturday 6th february. GFS NEW.JPG

    You aren't a million miles from me, and it looks like on all these maps we are virtually the only place to not be expecting snow !! 

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I may not know anything about the models, but I read all the posts most days and all that seems to happen is  over excitement at cold events, that rarely if ever, seem to materialise!!

    then everyone just seems to forget that the BOOM cold event that didn't occur existed and moves on to the next potential BOOM event that also then never materialises!!

    Why has the BBC & Met office not mentioned this Beast from the East that never arrives???

    Maybe its just a reflection on my own personal disappointment that I fall into the trap of getting excited over all your predictions, that as yet never become reality?!!

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, AvidWinterSpectator said:

    Morning - same as yourself (it’s literally in my name). The trick (and what everyone is doing with FL charts) is to spot trends amongst all the available runs

    Yes, they maybe unlikely but;

    a) fun to look at
    b) the more that come onboard with a certain trend, (in theory) a higher rate of verifying.

    I find it fun to look at but also infuriating as the cold signals always seem to dissipate  

    Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I am what you would call an avid lurker on this site. I have been interested in weather (especially cold) all my life. I used to be on the old BBC weather site like a few of you on here i presume.

    I just wondered why so many of you say not to trust forecasts past 5 days, yet talk about runs so far ahead that rarely come to fruition. What do you genuinely believe? will we have any cold weather in the next 10 days or should just keep away until after then to see if our chances improve?!!

    • Like 4
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