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Pinhead27

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    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

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    2 hours ago, Nouska said:

    The UKMO have recently updated their DECIDER weather regimes and in those six airmasses they identify thirty variations. The numbers 1 - 30 are listed in frequency of occurrence :-

    Patterns are ordered according to their annual historic occurrences between 1850 and 2003, which was the period used to generate the patterns. Pattern 1 occurs most often annually (around 6.5% of the time) and Pattern 30 occurs least often annually (around 1.5% of the time).

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/new-weather-patterns-for-uk-and-europe

    8669efc8dd75b4119c48f752a5d65e2e.png

    I've posted this before but it is interesting for anyone who has not seen the update.

    A presentation of how they make use of this in forecasting weather risks.

    http://presentations.copernicus.org/EMS2016-127_presentation.pdf

     

    Thanks for this Nouska. As an MOD newbie, I appreciate links to sites like this, which provide me with much needed background to the model 'conversation'.

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