yellow snow

^ this. The winter has just begun. We are barely in the beginning of January. Even though it's obvious it has been a disappointment so far there are a few things important to remember. Both the OPI and the snow cover have next to none correlation with Dec temps. The further we go into Jan, the higher the correlation is. We have a minor event on its way leaving the reformed vortex vulnerable. I must admit I have been a bit nagative the last week or so as the signs of the MJO entering phase 6 at a high amplitude have weakened. It is however my view that the input looks much more positive today on several parameters. Firstly there seem to have been a significant change with regards to the realized MJO. The actual figures today no longer shows it way out in phase 3 and the EC ens forecast have it far out in phase 6 mid Jan. This corresponds with the ensm's again showing significant high pressure anom west of Greenland, to the north east of Scandi and the Aleutian low rebuilding. As linked to in previous posts by others this is a good setup for a new increase in wave activity. What worries me a bit is that some enms material now push the Atlantic trough in over or Scandi in the back end, thereby AGAIN pushing the strong Siberian high eastwards. Anyways this seem to give a period of NAO neutral weather with colder temps, but could be more negative in the long run. The seemingly change in realized MJO values puzzles me a bit though. If someone can shed some light on this please do.

EC Ens M coming in is just brutal with the warming at 10 mb. Massive ridging in the north Atlantic towards Greenland also in the trop. When do we need to see serious response further down than 10 before the lack of it starts to be worrying?

Surely we'll get some interesting tweets from wsi in the beginning of next week if the strat trend from today's EC ensm continues

I don't get it. It seems as there will be a temporary pause in the wave activity with the low pushing through scandi inti W Russia. However most models reestablish the high in NW Russia during the 8-15 day period. Also the high west of Greenland and the Aleutian L seem to be there. Todays ECM is by FAR the most positve this season in the 10 mb anom. The warming is day by day strengthening and coming closer to the pole in the 10-15 day period. Also the gfs ops are much more positive in the FI after a few days of mainly runs with insufficient warming events. Also this talk of positive NAO and AO is very strange to me as the latest ECMs are trending more negative in the 8-15 day period.