daz_4
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Posts posted by daz_4
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jules216 Very hazy today. Monday will be crazy for sure and there will be another blast from south with summer like temperatures next weekend. It's just relentless this year.
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jules216 Have to be said that the March analog did not work out at all. Warmest March on record here, almost 5C above average.
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ECM OP now back in line after last night.
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Quite the winter wonderland for Central Europe. Thanks, but no thanks. Pretty sure it will be a huge outlier.
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ECM warm from start to finish over Europe. February on track to be 7C above average in my backyard.
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Not sure if it sad or hilarious to post wintry charts 380 hours away on 21st February.
Meanwhile not even a night frost on GEFS.
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AO- Yep, good for them if it verifies. They desperately need it.
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Once again very impressive warmth showing on GFS for the end of the month for Central Europe. This month is truly extraordinary.
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Dennis The time has come for spring to continue
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I would prefer no split at all as everything is starting to bloom here. February will be warmest on record and is tracking to be warmer than many Aprils in recent years in Central Europe.
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GEFS this evening illustrate why I'm not impressed. It would be a struggle to get night frost in that set up in my backyard.
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minus10 I know. I wanted to show how those uppers translate to surface conditions. All I'm saying is that -4/-5 uppers from NW flow in late February is nothing spectacular. Yes, the snow can stick for a little while, especially at night but will melt quickly during the day.
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Transient snowfall at best with those uppers in late February.
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Mike Poole Once could argue that spring has already started though.
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Ali1977 People just don't care anymore. Chasing cold charts beyond 300 hours in middle of the February feels pointless. The time has almost run out. This is February so far + 7 days forecast.
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I'm chasing record warm February so pretty good start this evening from GFS!
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February so far is tracking 7-8C above average here in Central Europe. Instead of backloaded winter we have April. Min. temp today was 11C which is quite crazy. Maybe we will have a cooldown later in the month but the damage is already done as the warm weather will continue for at least another week. Few warm days in March and the trees will start to bloom for sure only to be scorched by frost later in the spring. The script remains the same no matter the state of ENSO, QBO and who knows what else.
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Quite a flip from the models for next week in the last hours. High pressure from the east is gone and once again warm SW winds are blasting through Europe.
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I don't get the excitement. GEFS show no winter for at least next ten days, probably more. Even here in Central Europe there is nothing of note in the models apart from the good, old potential at 380 hours. What am I missing?
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Easterly may setup but there is no cold air over Europe and the high over Russia is keeping it far away to east.
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sebastiaan1973 Let's just hope it's wrong. Who wants another cold spring?
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Looking at GFS 12z up to 240 hours, the first half of February has a pretty good chance to be the warmest on record here in Central Europe.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The outlook for Central Europe is absolute disaster. Everything is at least a month ahead and in full bloom. The frost will kill pretty much everything unfortunately.