[Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...]

Nice days snowsports up at glenshee today, snow a tad hard in places but overall conditions excellent! -1 deg c, slightly overcast, not a breath of wind

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Reversal (or near to) at 1mb on the 18z GFS run.

Whats meant by reversal Blizzard?

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

ok so theres a link in the strat thread as well but thought I'd share here as well seeing as it will have an effect on the model outputs. Judah cone's latest update and I for one think its good news for coldies. Link to the full update ....... https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Just a quick FI February weather porn chart for us before the pub run comes out 

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Theres 524 miles between east lothian in Scotland and the channel islands yet the are in the same place on the league table for minimum temps! Just goes to show that weather can be strange, intriguing, unexpected and down right impossible sometimes. 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Out of curiosity why do you think we need a SSW ??? we were in a hell of a run of mild swly winds and this cold snap came from nowhere without the help of any SSW

I would say the current weather is typically seasonal. A SSW would increase the chances of a much longer sustained cold spell

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

The serious warming I'm seeing on the GFS models keep pushing out further in towards February, but this tweet has given renewed hope.

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

6 minutes ago, leemondo said:

Don't post here often as I have no idea how to read the charts, but I enjoy it all the same!

I would suggest people don't get hung up too much on the output at the moment, as even the met office peeps are saying it's all in no man's land, but hey, what do they know eh?  

I know it's good to talk about what's being shown and all the if's and but's, but.......... when a hurricane show's up in January for the first time in almost 80 years, it will throw a rather large spanner in the works! especially when the exact track and ramifications are unknown.

For now, it's cold, and getting colder for a few day's, let's see what Alex does and what that means for our wonderful little island

Thanks everyone for the input, laughs and hair pulling that this thread provides  

sorry, couldn't help myself 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18Z stopped on netweather? prefer using it to meteociel, 

Im having the same problem at +54

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

So wee tropical eck heads north towards SW greenland picking up plenty cloud/moisture on the way. The "tail whip" from wee eck would be carried by the strong jet straight over the UK by sunday. The 850's look good, the minimum temps look good, would this be a snow dump? Be gentle I'm new to this 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Ok so as a new guy to this I've took on the advice of "wait until the cold kicks in" to let the models settle down and then come to easier conclusions. So now the cold's here I'm non the wiser, the three main models seem to have been thrown off by the tropical cyclone Alex?  Would I be correct in assuming that once this cyclone has passed up into Greenland, as predicted that model outputs should start to "settle" as such and be more of a close run thing? Cheers guys n Gals, I'm always lurching in the background learning massive amounts every day in here, keep up the great posts!

[Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...]

6 minutes ago, M1245 said:

What are the chances of some of the white stuff hitting Fife tomorrow night?

GFS precip charts showing a chance of snow from 18:00 tomorrow through until midnight, could be sleet tho, depends how low ground temps get, 850's look good for it to me, where in fife are you?

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

Arpege 2m temps for saturday 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

11 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

I must be one of the few that's pleased the forthcoming cold snap won't be particularly cold. I stupidly switched the central heating off prior to heading to the Switzerland last Thursday. At least I won't return to burst pipes in a week or so.

There's been very little in the way of snow and cold for my area of late and I don't expect that to change much for the rest of winter.

Fortunately Switzerland is soothing my snow addiction with well over a meter of fresh snow falling since Thursday. Temperatures with wind chill factored in are forecast to be as low as -23*C this week.

Here's a taster of conditions:

 

thats just rubbing it in that is! 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

You speak for the North of the UK we must remember that us snow starved southerns are gagging for snow that just doesn't look to materialize in the current cold snap! 

 

Looks good for down south out on Monday, i'l take this all day long, props won't materialise those 850's have been changeable over the the last few days 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Is that showing the PV getting shifted to Siberia?  Got to admit I haven't cottoned on to what the graphs in here show

 

BFTP

to be honest I'm just looking to see the vortex shifted significantly of its axis , i'm uncertain as to what differences it makes to the trop weather on our shores depending on which way it gets shifted, maybe @Recretos or @lorenzo could shed some light on this? 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

"heart warming" looking 30hpa chart 

[Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...]

over half a centimetre fell here this morning so far, sick fed up walking the dog in this weather, hurry up cold!!

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

silly question time, but why doesn't net weather have the NAVGEM, JMA, CMA etc charts as shown on here all the time from users screenshots from meteociel, It would be easier if they were all in one place on here to find surely? I'm assuming they are not free, however meteociel have decided to provide them anyway?

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Almost time for some more of this.....

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

I can see some similarities between the december 2009 charts leading into the big freeze and tonights ukmo @ +144, will be interesting to see how this pans out. GFS is all over the shop leading me to give it a serious case of ignoring until the cold actually hits.

ukmo +144

file:///Users/imachome/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-10%20at%2016.34.01.png

dec 2009 

file:///Users/imachome/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-10%20at%2016.37.21.png

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

I'm still waiting for the cold patterns to kick in before I decide what's coming next, most of the experts on here have informed us as such for a week almost now. Out of interest does anyone have any model outputs they can show from 2010 leading up to the big freeze? If not where can I find them? Thanks folks

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

3 minutes ago, Orpingtoniceagedec10 said:

Sorry. Bit of a newbie, what does WAA mean?  

Hover your cursor over any of the words underlined as you see with WAA and a text box will show up with the meaning 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

Sorry for being off topic but if folks haven't seen recretos's stratosphere chart animation over in the strat forum head over and check it out, amazing imagery ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

It is these type of little features that you have to keep an eye on in this type of airmass, they could give a surprise snowfall as I mentioned yesterday.

Steep learning curve, one for the notebook sir! cheers