Ventnor Viking

To be fair it was looking good. I honestly want cold as much as everyone else. Ive been there, as we all have, when we think its odds in then we have our hopes taken away by the models 10 days time would be great, perfect for christmas. I still think mid-late Jan will be good for us (i dont get joy in saying that) but thats where all the indicators are pointing and thats not changed a great deal.

Hi @icecold so 10 days is up........(banter btw before emotions run high) My perspective still has not changed. Still looking at mid to later January for anything significant and a SSW will be needed to help things along. Id also just like to make the point that im hunting for cold with you all but Im seeing at a slightly different time than most and that doesn't = trolling btw if people werent so snappy and bullish to jump on people with a different outlook to their own I would write more meaningful posts......... As I mentioned 10 days ago there would weak attempts and the odd transient cold period which I think is all we can expect this side of Christmas/New Year

Patience is the key here. It will come but we just need to bide our time. The way im looking at it is enjoy Christmas and the build up etc and then when the Christmas blues set in after new year the fun will begin in January with the pattern change and the models firming up with the change with consistency to lift our meteorological spirits

I appreciate that and points well made. I don't think there will be a pattern change in December as such, not a lasting one, but my gut feeling is that it will start to take place after new year and set us up nicely. Unfortunately I don't really see much cold until then. I would love to be proved wrong though big time!

To be honest Im not here to make enemies - when I wrote the below post yesterday it was exactly in context with other discussions at the time such as blocking etc " On ‎26‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 16:18, Shaftesbury Snow said: GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI" I definitely don't take long range models as gospel but I also observe sun spot predictions, look out for SSW, MJO and lots of other things. I think many others on here today are now following the idea of a pattern change (blocked and cold) into January. Much of the talk on this thread has not been about day to day models and many have spoken about the bigger picture etc. No one else has been slated today for saying similar to me. Maybe they have better reputations and people don't want to offend them. My previous post to this is exactly what I said and I stand by that. If you follow the day to day models for the hunt for cold it will drive you mad, I just look for tends and broader NH profiles and the day to day models have moved away from a blocking scenario at the moment going into December. Anyway, apologies to any offence caused to anyone

Just to clarify again. A back loaded winter means cold - blocked - snow in the second half of winter. I referred to a major pattern change going in to mid to late Jan onwards. I posted this morning charts to back this up...please take a look. I also called zonal up to 144hrs on yesterdays 12z GFS. I definitely did not rule out any cold in December , however I did say any cold wont last long in December and would probably be transient and weak. There wont be the major patter change just yet though that will happen in January based on the attached. There will be attempts at it though as the NH profile is out of sync. To anyone else who is referring to my posts please quote them as you will see they are quite different to what is being said. Does this now make it clearer? I think you have also contradicted yourself there. Please quote where you think I said things and I will happily clear up any confusion The links - Canadian model from dec to feb and then JMA dec to feb

To be fair I don't think anyone has written off winter. I think many of us are hoping for the cold to come through quicker then actually will. In fact, March has actually been one of the snowiest months in recent winters, so there's still loads of time left

Hi Yarmy, I totally agree and good point. It was more to show that these runs chop and change so much and we need to be looking at the broader patterns. Sorry if you have already seen it but I posted a couple of longer range models which show a back loaded winter (blocked pattern, Greenland High and undercutting lows bringing snow) which I think will be the case. The GFS does love the zonal pattern for sure. The high in the arctic is pretty much driving the models such as the GFS and ECM and with every different position they present that high that's when we see some exciting output, both the ECM and GFS are really struggling with it at the moment. Out of those two models I favour the ECMWF just from past experience as the GFS seems to follow this model rather than the other way round.

I think it is more than likely going to be the case. Its quite unusual to get a prolonged cold period in December, that's not to say its not possible. Recent times we have seen that but most prolonged cold spells have started in Jan or just after Christmas. The NH is all out of sync so there will be all kinds of runs thrown up some look spectacular and some look terrible.

I think it is. There maybe some transient colder periods before then but the main pattern change will be in Jan. (based on longer range models...before I get kicked in the balls again)

Exactly - it makes more sense, its building now and the models will throw out a few runs trying to get there.

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

Hi Karlos, They are but just at differing time scales. Ill post some others now

Still no difference to the overall plan of this winter ACCORDING TO THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODELS and the current model output. Still looking mid to late Jan for the good stuff. Disclaimer These views are not expressed by myself, my emotion or an abreaction of over excitement. These views are based on different models and conditions currently being presented to us all.

Absolutely, the arctic high is important. The models aren't losing it and have been consistent with it being there or there abouts. Then there's the potential strat warming which should hopefully help things along nicely.

Good point. Personally I tend to trust the ECM in these situations. Probably will end up in the middle though. Definitely one to watch tomorrow

I'm all good mate. To be honest the FI charts differ most of the time from run to run. The long range climate models do show broader patterns and normally not too bad. Not one has shown any blocking (that I've seen) this side of Christmas. The NH is primed I think for the new year. There maybe attempts now which may bring colder spells at times. But I think a stronger more permanent block will happen mid to late Jan into Feb. I can't be sure definitely not like everyone else we all have different opinions and I certainly don't think there won't be any cold around.

Sure thing

True. I meant no offence and everyone just went mad. I didn't even mention cold weather. I said according to long range models the major pattern change won't be until late Jan and so many mis quoted me tonight

He as in me did back it up though. I said long range models!!! Plus where did i say there would be no cold? Quote me saying that!! I never said that not once So back off now I'm tired of people making rubbish up on here tonight Now everyone else is saying it and actually not backing it up.

Exactly what I said and what I was thinking......

That's the problem we get caught up in FI and take it as gospel

Gladly. Let's talk then. Ten days ago it was let's wait until next week or we will see upgrades in 48-76 hours.....which didn't happen. I'll post something later to keep you all happy with my fingers crossed and a wink saying "God that mild South westerly looks cold....we will be blanketed" I think desperation and excited takes over logic sensibleness sometimes.

Not a bold statement at all. Long term models weren't showing that, IF I remember rightly it was only the GFS mainly and ECMWF didn't at all, which was hated for being accurate. By pattern change I mean proper blocking etc not just transient notherlies. Can you suggest anything different short term and why? Apart from all this background signal talk which guarantees nothing

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI