Chris Wsm
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Posts posted by Chris Wsm
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That Easterly would likely deliever alot more precipitation than shown , with -10 850's and all that troughing to the South.
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I hope the Navgem is on to something , The Cold spell never ends ..
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Well, I was woken up my a loud crack of thunder at 2am, and knew, without liking out of the window that it would only be rain last night. Thankfully (no offence to anyone) everyone else got rain too!
So now even next weeks fun and games have been taken away from us? This is not nice. At the beginning of this week I had visions of ice days, snow showers... And nothing of the sort is going to happen. Why do we do this to ourselves year on year? Roll on summer please. I want to be able to sit in the garden. I can not wait to get away on our holiday in July.
Rant over
Lol this time next week we will all be looking for the next Cold spell at +240 hours ....We will never change in here ha !
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Where are you seeing that? Euro4 just has it as rain.
I would expect euro 4 to upgrade that a little nearer the time , as by Sunday morning we should be in a much Colder Airmass .
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I See a new period of Snow is showing for us tomorrow night .... Wonder if it will actually happen this time .
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Well at least Ian is confirming it is polar low
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Snowing heavy in weston again, on the coast
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its forecast to move down the irish sea bringing strong to galeforce winds and more organised precipitationSorry I have a dumb question :-)
If this was a Poler Low how would that effect us in the SW?
Thanks
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Im right on the coast in Weston , and in that last shower it was snowing on the pier. So anything that falls from now on should be all snow
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Wow - yes - looks like a classic!
Actually - or is it just a secondary low which has developed from the "shortwave" shown at around the same position on the GFS 6Z
Not sure but I expect it will enhance showers later running down the Irish sea , good to see Snow now falling for Andy , the Snow line must be starting to move further South .
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Model thread going on about a possible polar low forming NW of Scotland . Looks like one on this website http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en
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Monday still looking a little dodgy for us IMO , that Warm sector goes right over our area during the event , So we nee to hope that as the low moves SE it pushes the precipitation back West later ... At the minute , Id say Snow to Rain and then back to Snow , but any further Northward movement of the low and it could be Rain from the start . In situations like this the track of the low is very important , too far South and you lose the precipitation , to far North and its rain for the SW . We could also do with initial precipitation beating the Warmer air .
All in all , i'd say 50% of seeing anything significant .
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i still wouldn't write off seeing some Snow tonight into tomorrow , 850's are -6 / -7 , due points are -1/-2 and the dam line is at least 528 over most of us , Showers look heavy and plentiful , given the strong Cold flow . I have seen it snow in a lot more marginal conditions than this .. I expect most places will at least see falling Snow in the heavy showers tonight ...
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Until my dying day, "will it snow in carlisle?" And "will it snow in cardiff" will always live with me
Will probably miss both , but you can be a 100% sure it will snow on Narborough Road , our old haunting ground lol .
Im now South of the M4 , Your North , let the battle begin .
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Well Weston-Super-mare to Bristol looks ok as far as GFS is concerned , 528 line covering these areas , Tomorrow afternoon through Friday afternoon . Although wouldn't expect any settled snow , Weston side of the a370 . although looks pretty good chance of seeing Snow falling as the precipitation maps look like being quite heavy Showers over the area during tomorrow night .
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Good model agreement now, I expect some upgrades will start to show in respect to the uppers , which don't look Cold enough for a directly sourced Northerly , Although the trough to the East depending on it's position , may moderate 850's slightly . With the Azores far enough West it also would leave open the option of small disturbances spreading down the West of the uk , giving some frontal Snow. Exciting times .
Chris
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Another big shower heading for Leicester , currently over nuneaten , as soon as they get into the East midlands they are beefing up like mad , going from drizzle to bright orange
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Mind you it is just that heavy shower over us , not much at all behind us , so hope that stuff in the SW moves North .
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I bet and is going mad , it is chucking it down in glenfield leic , settled instantly
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If we get any further corrections West , r.e. the progression of the front Tue/Wed , we will be lucky to get it past Birmingham . Although i imagine it may increase chances of some Snow into parts of the West country . Wednesdays front had looked stronger on previous runs , but now it looks like it will struggle with Eastwards progression more than Tuesday. On the bright side Gem and Navgem still take it across the country , but the resolution isn't as high as the new GFS . As for the rest of the 12z , it looks far to progressive to me , taking into account that Cold block of air to the East , and I'm pretty sure the Atlantic will struggle to get through more than shown , maybe setting up some sort of battle ground situation would be my bet right now .
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Until my dying day, "will it snow in carlisle?" And "will it snow in cardiff" will always live with me
Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
well a couple of things about ECM that I have noticed, 1, the progression between +144 and +168 looks way to fast for me , a 1020 High , to our NE replaced with a 995 low in 24 hours seems to quick . and also even if ECM is right in it's end frames , the core of the reformed Vortex is yet again trying to move East into Scandi . In turn this could set up yet another Northerly .