Vestan
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Posts posted by Vestan
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33 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:
cant say i feel too hopeful today tbh, i think there's still fair chance of something but im not so certain.
Looks like the Reading cell will end up to our South and anything coming out of London will probably end up North. Still stuff developing though, so it's not a bust yet...
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I can't believe how heavy that rain is down in the South West, whilst here in W Oxfordshire I have had to water the garden once again as the ground remains rock hard. Barely any rain and not a rumble heard all year. I think there is a corridor from Oxford stretching West to take in Glos and Wilts that has seen nothing majorly connective for a good couple of years. Hence, I can't get excited about any potential for the weekend as it will all undoubtedly be North & East of me.
Bah!
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It will be the usual this week:
Expectations of a MCS moving up from France leading to promises of chasing.
Slight dampening of expectations by Tuesday night from latest runs.
A few small cells will form around the Bedfordshire area before moving East over East Anglia into the North Sea.
We all moan about being members of the no storms club & look forward to the next event in July!
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Next weekend is May.
The Sun is getting stronger now. When we get those 40C temps in Europe again we can look forward to more slightly disappointing plume events!
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57 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Anyone else in the central south feel like giving up on this whole ‘storms’ thing?
It's been a terrible year. Everything seems to kick off North and East of me. I reckon Wiltshire & Gloucestershire has been the worst place for storms this year
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The view looking across to the Isle of Wight from Boscombe beach. All the action is East of here.
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3 minutes ago, amybonnie98 said:
Can see distant but frequent flashes looking south from up here in Oxfordshire...and a constant distant rumbling like planes. Weird! Should get good later on!
I am Witney as well and it is a plane from Brize. Been flying round for the last 30 mins! All this stuff on the South coast should be with us by 1.30am I reckon if it keeps going. Seems to be expanding on the Western side
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Lasts nights BBC forecast assumed this rain sweeping down in a SE direction would have petered out to nothing by the time it got to the Midlands. Clearly this is not the case & nothing is happening in the south east either. Pretty poor tbf
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3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Looks like convergence winds later Wednesday could give the southern half of Britain some wild and intense thunderstorms
BBC forecast earlier suggesting storms in South on Wednesday moving to affect more northern areas on Thursday. Seems like this setup of high pressure over south of UK with a low over the continent could be around for another week or so
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Last night was typical of my luck over recent years. The London storm was approaching Oxford but seemed to lose it's energy as it went through. Nothing but rain all night for me. Still I'm on the edge of today's MDT zone so here's hoping
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Where is that London cell headed. I'm tempted to go East of Oxford if it's worth it
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3 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:
Sorry only just jumped on are these storms going North or North West??
North West, maybe even WNW, but seem to have a slightly more northerly track than 2 hours ago
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20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Liverpool John Lennon TAF going for the possibility of heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorm rain from 04:00 onwards tomorrow morning. A good sign for later.
There will be a lot of moisture at Liverpool John Lennon from 4am when the first planefuls of tearful Scousers start to land!
I will be in South Oxfordshire tonight so inside the MDT zone. Could be interesting.. ...
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And so begins the annual inevitable disappointment when nothing happens in my area! Still, I think the anticipation is almost as exciting.....
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4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:
looking at radar the batch that is more western appears to be moving north then there seems to be a gap and the more Eastern one seems to moving more NE than N which may take the worst over a similar track to the MCV I believe it was called
disclaimer - this is pure guesswork
And the gap of nothingness between Bath & Swindon continues.......
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I think these are the most exciting and at the same time the worst moments. You can see it all developing on the radar, read the forecasts telling you what may happen and where and yet there is still that fear that the only action you will see is on YouTube later! I'm hoping for some action in the C/S Midlands later, hopefully after dark. Even my kids are excited about seeing something although that will probably change when it does happen!
Leaving work in an hour and settling down to watch the NW radar.......
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4 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Latest model updates are hinting a long spell of hot weather at the end of the month, 12z showing temps from 26-29 degrees lasting a good 7 days, Hopefully this will be our next chance of a proper thundery breakdown
Well I'm going on holiday to Dorset for a week on the 21st so a week of hot weather and a few storms thrown in would be brilliant. Not heard a rumble since May
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Talk of a 'thundery breakdown' on the BBC forecast tonight around the middle of next week, but uncertainties around whether it would be due to air coming up from the South or in from the West
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The track of that storm in France looks like Southampton, Basingstoke, Reading, Milton Keynes etc which is pretty much in line with the MOD area on the earlier Convective Weather forecast
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So Saturday was a disappointment having woken up at 3am & checked the radar to see a line of storms approaching, I expected to be woken by a rumble of thunder around 6am. In the end it rained heavily for 5 minutes about 6.40am and that was it.
Hoping for some real action tonight, when its dark. I really want to get out onto the top of the costwolds and see some action, but I appear to have my own storm shield, so lets wait....
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10 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
Dont even joke about the rain rate.Its relentless here.Pumping station,storm drains, overwhelmed.Some people are going to wake up(if they slept) to heartbreak and an awful lot more to just misery. Going to be a long,long clean up
And here in West Oxfordshire, not a drop of rain all night
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I am looking out the office window over the Chilterns and hoping that activity makes its way WNW over the next 2 hours
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My local BBC forecast this evening suggested that tomorrow would see a line of storms forming around Reading to Banbury area and moving North West into the Midlands before turning round and going East!
Some interesting potential
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I'm in Oxford & expecting this to pass slightly to my West?
Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Vestan
I thought we had very high amounts of Cape last summer during the very hot spell when it hit 38C but there was just no trigger at all & it all shunted away at the end anyway. Surely cape means nothing without a trigger?
Although I understand it's all about the 'potential'!