Spikey M
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Posts posted by Spikey M
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Last summer was a complete bust here on the SouthEast coast. Any warm spells the country had, we were sat under a North Easterly airflow for. I remember being 7c cooler than inland during May.
Fingers crossed we get the opposite this summer!
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Sitting here, watching the drizzle with the temperature sitting at 10c is exceptionally irritating when I keep hearing about the nations cold snap on the news.
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After an awful summer last year, I want the barbecue out early doors this spring please.
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Just now, Paul said:
I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, more than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?
A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal.
Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing.
Absolutely. And it feels like it should be relatively simple to achieve. Either by having the matrix front and centre with the map, or by displaying likelihood as a percentage within the map. You have to wonder why they haven't. It must have occurred to them.
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1 minute ago, kate1 said:
I think the issue is that we get so many yellow warnings now people pretty much ignore them. If an amber warning can encourage people to take the weather seriously - securing things like trampolines which are likely to cause a hazard, doing any emergency home maintenance which might avoid serious damage, and most importantly keeping themselves safe - then surely that can only be a good thing. Admittedly here in my corner of Kent we have seen more damage and disruption in recent years under some yellow warnings than we did under last night's amber, but that's not something that can always be predicted in advance and in this case all the indications were that this could well be an extremely nasty storm for most of the UK. The MetOffice have to be cautious where people's lives and homes are potentially at risk.
The problem is people don't take the time to understand the warnings. They just look at the map and see they are under a yellow, amber or red warning and they think:
Yellow: it's going to be windy.
Amber: it's going to be REALLY windy
Red: airborne cottages.
But that isn't the case, the colour addresses 2 factors. Danger and LIKELIHOOD. The likelihood always seems to be overlooked. A yellow can mean either "we are confident that it's going to be windy" OR "there's a 0.01% chance of the strongest storm in history on thursday".
Until people stop to look at the matrix, they are going to keep accusing the Met of getting it wrong. Even when they haven't.
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That last video
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Maybe my neighbour only lost those roof tiles psychologically. That'll save her some money.
Sorry, but this place really does descend into quite baffling silliness sometimes.
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1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden.
Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently
I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along.
And this is why people should pay more attention to the risk matrix, rather than just the warning map. The risk was substantial, the likelihood was not. People claiming "crying wolf" usually just haven't looked.
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2 Fence panels down and we've had 2 short power cuts here. Seems to have died down a Little though.
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35 minutes ago, IanT said:It’s winter here in the UK.
A storm can be a storm without being historic.
A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.
Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?
They can't win either way.
If they have names and warnings, it's overdramatic and unnecessary.
If they just say "it's going to be windy" and a tree falls and kills a family in a car, then those same people complain that they didn't know it was going to be that bad.
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I needed a degree in Ice Sculpture to get in the car this morning.
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8 minutes ago, MAF said:
are you not even allowed to put 'secondary' windows in? basically a window in front of the building's windows on the inside. some planning rules are quite archaic. even where i live in SE London there are restrictions to what householders can do to their property. after all 'their property' is the operative words
I'm not sure to be honest, certainly something to look into though. Thank you.
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I am very much ready for the end of this cold snap. I love living in my rickety old cottage, but we are in a conservation area and stuck with single pane windows at the front to "uphold the character of the area". This is the first real cold snap since we moved here in 2022, and having icicles INSIDE the windows has been... interesting.
That said, the storm on Sunday/Monday looks like another strong'n, and we could without forking out for yet more fence panels!
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There seems to be alot accumulating over the North Sea. If this continues into the Evening as the temperature drops off the Met Office could end up with egg on their face for not issuing a warning.
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Coming down heavy in South East Essex
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2 fence panels down so far...
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A gentle reminder that today is day 9 of Winter. Any alarm bells should be having snooze hit for atleast 2 months.
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Still -1c here and due to start dropping. Tonight's match of the day beers are outside the backdoor instead of in the fridge. Lovely stuff.
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It hasn't been above -1 all day today. It's the first time for years I can remember a full subzero day happening here.
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I'm on the fence, because I just like interesting weather. Snow, wind, thunderstorms, etc.
So, I'm fine with cold, but only if we get some snow out of it. If it's not going to snow, then I'll take mild and stormy. If I can't have either, then I suppose mild and dry so I can save on the gas bill.
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I want a proper Friday night pub run tonight please.
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It would normally be too early for a pure easterly to give us any real cold, but that cold pool over the continent is absolutely beautiful. Fingers crossed.
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Certainly a bracing breeze out there for my lunchtime walk with the dog.
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1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Not for me I never got that alert
No, me neither!!!
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There's blossom on the trees and daffodils springing here. Wahoo.