solarcycle
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Posts posted by solarcycle
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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
whats happen to SSW i see no signs of anything in the models in their latter output of anything severe cold,the bbc forecast about it seemed confident we could see signs of winds coming from siberia,but nothing shows this yet ,are the models not picking it up yet
At the risk of being facetious, the important thing here is the first S in SSW. Sudden. We could just see a sudden appearance of cold weather on the models or then again, we may not. An SSW is no guarantee of wintry nirvana.
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49 minutes ago, knocker said:
Roll up, roll up............place your bets.
Snow over Camborne!
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:
And of course it's one run; it's the 06z, so worthless after D7; has no support from its mean and an outlier in FI:
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Nonsense. The 06z isn't 'useless.' I don't know why this old chestnut keeps getting brought up. A mean chart for two weeks away on the other hand is truly useless.
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Well, well, well. 06z ensemble 2m temps
for London still showing a brief milder blip and then cold all the way through. More chilly days to make up for the mild damp horror of much of this winter.
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06z ensembles for London showing a brief warm up, although it won't be truly mild, then a return to below average. A late winter treat for having to endure so much mild muck. Leave it until after the end of astronomical winter to begin looking for warmth.
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16 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??
I strongly disagree. There should be a clear distinction between the seasons. At least 8C feels like December.
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I am really happy with the proper model thread. Lots of informative posts and the whining and trolling of the past appears to have pretty much disappeared. Well played to everyone who posts there and kudos to the mods for keeping it in such good shape too.
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Yesterday was a pleasant surprise for London!
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I had proper falling snow earlier. Always welcome in London. Even more so when in November.
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Back to more of a normal looking set up after all the high pressure and mild air of Autumn so far. Trough set up right around the UK, with HP surrounding it. LP spins and regenerates in the trough, it'll need a big boot from somewhere to move it along....or we could be with this set up a while!
Care to post any charts to back that statement up?
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The French high res output still brings the precip in as snow and shows a few cms for East Anglia and SE.
AROME
ARPEGE 42 hour accumulated total - probably not going to lie with ground temps and dew points.
BBC weather forecast just now seemed to follow above from French high res.
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[so the flow of Pm air, sometimes rPM with not much of Tm seems the most likely into December to me?]
What's that mean?
Polar maritime and returning polar maritime with not much tropical maritime. In other words on the cooler side of average with winds from the west and north west more than south west.
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Strange - he's reputed to be very good.
Seriously though, CFS is awful.
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WeatherWeb.net now suggesting that the long-range CFS is showing a screaming Jet for the whole of the winter. On top of that, they're playing-down this coming weekend as well, away from the Scottish and Welsh mountains and the northern Pennines:
CFS is hardly the most reliable model. No reputable forecaster would set much faith in it.
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Zomg o noe there isnt gonna be 6 foot of teh snow in Lundon in November. Winter is over!!!1
Been wanting to do that for a while. In the meantime, back in reality, good riddance to unseasonably mild muck.
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This morning's gfs is not without interest. It initiates the 'cold Plunge' around Saturday and maintains until Thursday ( and quite cool for a period after that) when the HP makes ingress from the west. the upper trough in fact drags the cold air down to North Africa.
Charts weatherbell
Thanks knocker. When you post about cold I can believe it might happen.
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But in all seriousness I suspect the weather is about to make fools of us again.
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Can someone please explain how one post on this page says the vortex is shredded yet another, presumably using the same nwp output says it is forming strongly. Coming to completely opposite conclusions makes no sense to me. Who is it who has this wrong? It has to be one or the other.
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I'm looking forward to all the drama and theatrics that the first sniff of cold will produce.
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If you think someone is trolling, report it rather than point it out publicly, it just serves to derail the thread
And can we please drop this mildie -v- coldie nonsense please.
Would be nice but can't see it happening any time soon. The worst part is that preferences can lead to confirmation bias when it comes to forecasting.
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What's wrong with a bit of honesty? Nobody, not even those aided by the world's most powerful supercomputers, can accurately and repeatedly predict the weather for the next six months...?
If anyone could, this forum (and many others like it) would cease to be?
I'm all for honesty! But heck, I'll put my neck on the line and say that Roger J Smith's prediction of late winter cold feels like the form horse for me at the moment.
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I think the people who are going to feel pleasant about the 1st half of winter are Gavin, Scott, Rob and Ian Brown (if he is still around), and maybe a few 'thin veil' mildies like IDO, Purga etc.
That last one I've underlined. Is he the one that comes on in winter and does thinly disguised mild trolling and then gets all defensive when called out? The fact he hasn't logged on since March should tell you something. And in IDOs defence he does make well reasoned and well evidenced posts even if he does have a bit of a fetish for posting 15 day means
Gavin is a balanced poster actually, he will acknowledge cold if it is genuinely on the way. Besides, on the 30 October it is a fools errand to make cast iron predictions about winter.-
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I think many people on here are going to be pleasantly surprised with regards to the upcoming winter. I think the last third of November will see our first cold spell followed by a wet and mild first 10 days of December but then a cold second half of December. That's as far as I will go for now. Jan and Feb are way too far into the distant future for any predictions. Nothing really scientific with my prediction, just pure old gut instinct lol.
Can you tell me this week's euromillions numbers?
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for London still showing a brief milder blip and then cold all the way through. More chilly days to make up for the mild damp horror of much of this winter.
ARPEGE 
Gavin is a balanced poster actually, he will acknowledge cold if it is genuinely on the way. Besides, on the 30 October it is a fools errand to make cast iron predictions about winter.
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Why not? It isn't an outrageous suggestion. In 2008 there was settling snow in London on 6 April.