Rob Walker
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Posts posted by Rob Walker
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9 minutes ago, Biggin said:
Fingers crossed and with Euro 4 on our side Bring it on.
Early days. Lets hope more than just the one place gets something tonight. I think that current storms got a few surprises left yet in terms of path; looks to me on rain radar like it might be heading for a split or two; and some of it has a definite northward shift in its track. We shall know soon enough!
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3 minutes ago, steve86 said:
More northwards shift now on that beast over northern France no?
Yes I've been thinking that. I mean I might just be seeing things but does look less like heading up the channel/france coast and more like heading for somewhere along the central south/south east?
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This is new. First real fluffy clouds of the day just to the West. Still hardly a breathe of wind (tops of trees not moving) but feeling like like first hints of breeze from south atm.
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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
This on UKWW should give the southerners something to get excited about:
I would like to add to this that it is HOT AS HELL in Salisbury right now, not a breathe of wind for the last 2 hours and temps nearing 30 across a wide range of local reporting stations. Not sure about the humidity but it's making me sweat a lot which is unusual for me in hot weather.
Also, I remain hopeful here regardless; given that it has been continually sunny here all day bar 5 minutes of alto cass earlier that it might just spark something off local to me.
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Its not an entire miss for the risk of storms in south and central areas (if we take metoffice precip forecasts at 16:00 and wind convergence into account) still a chance (albeit small).
What the metoffice precip charts did show is that band of rain in the irish sea heading towards wales fading to nothing by 16:00 .... hmmm will have to nowcast that, cant see it dissipating entirely? -
Just now, Mapantz said:
MetO warnings updated:
Well, guess I'll be enjoying the heat and sunshine then!
Just seen my first clouds of the day to the west heading near north too
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Just now, wimblettben said:
So this would mean that we could stand a chance of getting something later on now then.
There are some pretty unstable looking mid level clouds West of here at the moment moving Eastwards so wouldn't be surprised as they look like they are towering more compared to yesterday evening.
Well there's a chance I think, just less likely as the forcing from the shortwave looks to have happened east up the channel; it'll be better to just enjoy the day and see what develops rather than hanging on to forecasts as if they might actually materialise (though one things for sure; all forecasts have upped the temperature for here today).
Right now there are some clouds that have literally appeared out of nowhere not far to my south west so, going by visuals and feel of the air alone it certainly looks primed here at the moment. -
11 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:
So some models still lowering the likelihood of a chance of storms down central south.... meanwhile for only the second time since I can remember XC weather forecast goes the other way forecasting locally risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon here.
Hmmm upload didn't seem to work again....
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So some models still lowering the likelihood of a chance of storms down central south.... meanwhile for only the second time since I can remember XC weather forecast goes the other way forecasting locally risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon here.
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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:
If you had looked at the BBC forecast on Monday evening, you would have seen masses of rain with lightning showing across the southwest and moving northeastwards.
And I would say that it doesn't even look isolated for our bit now, nothings showing up on the precipitation models, only for the midlands eastwards.
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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:
Pretty much nothing for our area then, its all north!!!
Gutted if this model is true
, there were suppose to be widespread storms across the south and southwest a few days ago.
Thank god I got a good distant light show in May otherwise I would be on suicide watch now.
I'd take each run with a pinch of salt really - get an overall picture yes but they are hardly ever spot on. Plenty of warnings and forecasts saying risk of storms in the central south still; albeit if the risk has since increased central and eastern areas.
"The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z...."
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-05-
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 05 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017
ISSUED 16:12 UTC Wed 05 Jul 2017
ISSUED BY: Dan
UPDATE 16:12 UTC SLGT shifted eastwards, in line with thoughts from this morning. Potential for upgrade to MDT over English Channel and adjacent coasts, but awaiting full 12z runs for any potential increase confidence. ECMWF and high-res AROME (which uses ECMWF boundary conditions) both consistently offer a much later development (i.e. after this forecast period) and only affect S/SE England on Thursday, which lowers confidence somewhat.
UPDATE 07:44 UTC No modifications to the map for now, just to add some commentary based on 00z guidance. ECMWF continues to keep developments farther south and therefore elevated thunderstorms only reach far south coast at the very end of the forecast period (06 UTC). Most other output continue to hint at developments being farther north (and hence earlier / quicker motion to the NE), though broad trend would be to shift the SLGT farther east from its current position, roughly Dorset eastwards - this may be required on further updates.
... N WALES / N MIDLANDS / N ENGLAND / S SCOTLAND ...
Diurnal heating of a warm and relatively moist surface airmass will likely develop some marginal instability across these areas - though in reality, surface-based parcels likely capped by a warm nose around 850mb suggesting lightning rather unlikely given limited depth to any convection. Given also little signal from most NWP output (ignoring GFS with its dewpoints of 16-18C vs EURO4 with 11-13C), have refrained from issuing a LOW threat level for now - but will need monitoring. Some residual elevated instability may also produce the odd shower over the Midlands into East Anglia too.
... S ENGLAND / S MIDLANDS / HOME COUNTIES / S WALES ...
Upper trough west of Iberia will continue to disrupt southwards, backing the flow and allowing advection of high WBPT airmass from Biscay to occur into southern England on Wednesday night. Falling heights aloft will result in an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms, though the exact forecast evolution is marked with some uncertainty.
The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z, expanding in coverage through the remainder of Wednesday night as the focus shifts northwards and eastwards over S Britain as the new warm front lifts north - hence in a broad sense, probabilities per given location increases as you head farther north and east across the SLGT area. However, the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in keeping the main upper forcing a little farther south, and hence any thunderstorms may only graze the extreme south coast towards the end of the night. At the same time, it also allows more activation of the frontal boundary towards Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Given the ECMWFs history of generally having a good handle (compared to many other models) on medium-level instability events, this casts a little doubt on how widespread thunderstorms may be over southern England - though the degree of instability and very steep mid-level lapse rates would suggests any thunderstorms that do occur would be prolific lightning producers, perhaps capable of producing some hail and gusty winds. A MDT may be issued should confidence improve.
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-05
Ooooh
"The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z, expanding in coverage through the remainder of Wednesday night."
I wasn't going to bother staying up later until I saw this... tempted now! -
48 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
You do know that that outcome is confirmed right!
If we look at the CAPE charts, there is no CAPE under that storm whatsoever, interesting to see as haven't seen this too often.
Becaaause it shows where it has used all the cape up! Boom! Haha
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3 hours ago, Andy Bown said:
With pressure lowering during Wednesday night and Thursday there shouldn't be a cap in place as under the high a few weeks ago. What we do need though is a lot of hot sunshine Thursday morning to get the temperatures as high as possible then it'll be game on from lunchtime onwards. AltCas watch from late Wednesday too.
Yes I agree with this. Different factors to watch out for with this coming set-up. I suspect it'll be a lot easier for storms to fire; just need plenty of sunshine both on the wednesday and the thursday till early evening. Timing of the low/respective fronts looks good in very late eve for the south on the current forecast runs so that would be another positive for at least seeing something thundery in the south.
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6 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:
Can confirm in the form of altocumulus Cas.
Interesting. Very interesting. It's cap prodding time!
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37 minutes ago, Surrey said:
34c and a serious cap on down here in the melting south.. What a spell of weather one that will go down in history. But I'm still cautious on it going down in history for another reason aside the heat.. But we shull see what happens over night
Incredible heat for June in england! I'm still hoping something isolated might be able to push through for the central/east southern parts later on. I mean with temps widely up in the low 30's from as far southwest as yeovil and bristol across the whole central south into the wider london area it's got to be putting some pressure that cap!
And some higher moisture may just start to drift in from the west at least, dew points in yeovil and north wyke stations at 21 degrees now RH 55 and 63% respectively. Feels oppressively hot here; more so than yesterday and that hit 30 officially; and the winds still light and steady from the sse? thought was meant to have swung round sw an hour ago. . Think it hit 32 officially up on the hill at middle wallop; local stations widely reporting 33-34 in salisbury itself, mine topped 34 for a while an hour, now reading 32.5 still.
Still beautiful blue skies so just going to go bask in the last rays of heat before it goes! -
33 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning.
These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners.
I would be inclined to agree; but I'm no expert
I've seen 11am storms a couple of times before in Salisbury, not intense but nice to see nevertheless; and cleared away any haze for a beautiful afternoon . -
32 minutes ago, Stephanie Starr said:
1st july 2015 that night was a night to remember. We moved in that day and it was boiling must of been nearly 30 in daytime. Soon as 11.30pm 12.00 arrived it all kicked off continuos storm activity all night
This sounds nearly like an unforgettable experience I had when I was younger.... (Get ready for a hastily typed out story folks!)
End of June, 1996. Moved to a village just outside Salisbury. Wall to wall blue skies, 30 degree day, hardly a breath of wind; so we had an impromptu house warming BBQ. Wall of cloud forms in the distance to the east, thunderstorm quickly builds and heads towards us. Black as the ace of spades and you could hear the thunder and feel the gust front as it approached. Luckily we had already finished the BBQ; but we hadn't even had a chance to unpack before the thunderstorm rolled over just after the sun had set; and then the power went out. Everything in boxes still; half the stuff still in the removal van; and couldn't find the torches to save out lives. No blinds were up so the Incredibly frequent lightning; nearly strobe lightning at times, illuminated the entire house. Could hardly hear ourselves think for the noise of the thunder overhead. Large hail too (that actually shattered greenhouses across eastern salisbury) and torrential rain causing a torrent down our garden and flooding the patio. Ended up all sleeping on two bare mattress and bedding just led on the floor of the living room as couldn't see to put the beds up and halving to cope with the lightning continuously illuminating the room through our hastily put up "sheet curtains". At 1am woken up by a collosal noise; never heard anything close to it in my entire life; which was the manor house opposite being struck by a huge bolt of lightning. Turned out the next day that the chimney in a top floor bedroom had been struck and collapsed into a bedroom, and that a relative of the manor house owners staying in that bedroom had nearly died in hospital from his injuries :s Was a terrifyingly bonkers experience and it lasted nearly all the night before subduing around 3/4am. Patio was still flooded come 8am in the morning.
.....Guess that's what sparked my interest in the weather thinking about it!-
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Melting here!
been blue skies from 8am
Just pipped over 32 in the more exposed front garden; reading just over 33.5 (in fairly deep shade) in the back garden!!!
I do live in a low lying area just near the edge of salisbury and my back garden (bar shade at the end) is a sheltered south facing sun trap and often is a few degrees above the front (I've switched the thermometers back and forth before it still reads the same difference) so not surprised I'm once again getting a degree or two above the official temps in the back garden... But really quite surprised it's reading a couple over 30 out the front!
Anyway; Certainly seems a bit hotter again here today, Feels fairly humid too. Can see a few larger clouds bubbling up in the distance to the north west too... Someone get prodding that cap!!!
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5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
I was just thinking that. It's murky here. The skies look drizzly rather than convective and it's quite dull. That said I'm making the most of the relatively cool temperature!
Doh - forgot to multi quote!.... Seems it could be quite localised (as some clouds in warminster and bournemouth too and they're not too far from me) but for me not a cloud in the sky here; beautiful blue skies and not a breath of wind... and it's feeling fairly hot already!
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1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:
Yes very encouraging mid level instability this morning with plenty of virga and altcas.
Must be somewhat localised not a cloud in the sky here; beautiful blue skies and not a breath of wind... and it's feeling fairly hot already!
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3 hours ago, wimblettben said:
It looks like I am going to miss out on the action this time around if anything does happen as most of the CAPE seems to be well east of here, with only a small amount showing for us on Monday or Tuesday.
Must bear in mind also that CAPE isn't everything and the models are probably showing it to be way overdone!
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess=
Yeah, lol 2897j/kg for Thusday afternoon in Salisbury.. BOOM.
Some of the maps don't gel with local stats from what I'm seeing, but where the is cape shown, it looks optimistic at least!
Saying that, think its fair to say that it's looking like the energy will be there for most central southern and eastern parts at some point regardless of cherry picked stats or charts, see how things go tomorrow eve and how models look. -
5 minutes ago, AL. said:
I'm going to head to the south coast now, Portsmouth first, then head east towards Brighton. Wish me luck!!!
Good call. Shame you're not west enough to take a route through salisbury!
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hmmm not liking this mess west of the main event... seems its will be less and less likely for me at the mo seen this sort of set-up many a time.
Anyone in west driving through salisbury to head south east/along south coast and fancy company? lol-
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, there were suppose to be widespread storms across the south and southwest a few days ago.
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yeah looks like a load of crap to me lol typical!
Will keep an eye on it when it meets land though just in case....