[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

I'm erring on the side of caution for now. These charts might be a distant memory in the morning. Once bitten twice shy and all that 

:-(

 

Yup, now in the parallel universe where the next ice age threatens every single winter to destroy NW Europe, charts like the northerly plunge, veering North easterly for 6 weeks, would be, err, yes par for the course. However, in this world of milder climates, let’s be realistic. Mild 9 times out of 10, normal is Bartlett High, occasional toppler – yay! So greetings of the season, take joy in the next sleety shower.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Perhaps an expansion of the Hadley cell, maybe  caused bye climate change.  Only a dramatic pattern change my get rid of the high for a time. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell

 

I thought climate change was supposed to make NW Europe cooler? There has always been climate change, always will be (until we are Masters of terra and meto-forming).

What I see ATM is our old visitor the Bartlett High (respect there as always) and honestly it doesn't matter whether it is El Nino, La Nina, NAO, SSW or the kitchen sink, our global position (large ocean, prevailing winds) will nine times out of ten give us very predictable maritime mildness. So watch the models, understand their bias and tendency, and enjoy what we get in this unique island off the west coast of Europe.

And chasing snow is one of the reasons why my second home is Colorado  and, guess where I will be in February?