northwestsnow

GFS is a cracker if you want a cold seasonal,if mainly dry Christmas... UKMO looks similar to EC 168 this morning ..

As anticipated ,thick gloves needed if 6z comes off ( disclaimer * it's FI ) Frosty Christmas anyone?

Rest my beating heart 6z going old school Dickens Christmas ..

A pretty Christmas picture for coldies across Europe..

Santa will be needing thick gloves !!

Well well well... Perhaps my rampy rambling about Greeny highs and Arctic troughs wasn't so fanciful afterall!! GFS /GEM looking good . EC primed to pushed the High North ( not sure how North) at day 10 after looking flat yesterday evening .. Good start to the day for operation seasonal Christmas ..

Disappointing EC det. Not to worry, let's see where it sits in the suite...

Well I'd prefer a frigid Easterly sourced from Siberia Can't always get what we want, I'm happy with a cold High , I think we'll get high pressure, orientation and placement still to be resolved wrt Christmas week. Dry foggy frosty suits me if it's not going to be 850's cold at Christmas.

Must confess I was really surprised to see the negativity earlier ... The trend to a cold seasonal Christmas gathers momentum ...

Liking it girls and boys ...

GFS 0Z GFS6Z

It's either going very positive , or very negative!! I'm going the latter,and I'm expecting big upgrades for the last third of December

Indeed , I referenced this scenario .. Sub zero maxima ,raging NEly winds lake effect snow ❄ The fanatic in me says this is possible

EC looks very interesting this morning... Drying out and cooling down as HP takes over .. That isn't a sinker ... Blocking high centred just to our North Christmas week perhaps. I'd say a cold foggy/frosty Christmas week looks a good shout right now ,already by day 10 EC has minima falling close to zero up North... Alternatively the MJO takes centre stage ,the High gets dragged west then North into Greenland with an Arctic trough dropping through Scandy ...

Im not seeing a Barrlett high currently ? Of course that doesn't mean we won't end up with one!!

Struggling to leave 6 ? Not sure what phase 6 equates to in Nina Winters TBH this is where i get lost very quickly ..

There is time for it to be 500 miles further North Seb.

Ec46 ends very much the same, this must be a pretty hefty anticyclone the model is seeing ..!!

EC looks cold to me... Certainly THE optimum time for very cold minima... 27th Dec to early Jan..

Christmas week.

Beat me to it spoil sport !

It's high risk I'd agree. The form horse would be the high sinking .However, we have the mjo about to get into phase 7 which * might * be a wild card and lead to some goodies. Fascinating viewing ...

Well I'd take that right now Blue . Certainly optimum time of year for inversion cold ...( assuming milder air aloft).

Nervously awaiting ec46 I'm more than happy with a cold sceuro high for Christmas. Will post when it lands ...