ManiaMuse

Last summer had one of the best electrical storms I can remember in the UK up here in Manchester. Also saw that amazing storm in the early hours in London in 2014. Summer storms are really just about being in the right place at the right time.

Sun setting right side of 5.30pm today here. Another couple of weeks and I probably won't need the lights on my bike!

I am so looking forward to commuting into Manchester on my bike on Wednesday in freezing rain/sleet. Not. But if it makes a few in the model thread happy to see a few flakes of wet snow...

Agree that is stupid, wait another two weeks before changing the clocks back in October and change them forward two weeks earlier in March I say. Or get rid of the whole thing altogether and let the Scots do what they want if they still want daylight saving. On the plus side I'm cycling into work in daylight and will only be another week or so before my cycle home from work is still daytime as well.

Gibby's posts are the ones I look at when skim reading the model thread. He neatly summarises what the models are showing/trending towards and generally discusses what is likely to happen with the weather. It might be boring and repetitive but you can't change what the atmosphere is doing and therefore what the models are showing. "This weather is hardly of interest anymore having been going strong since late October and is irritatingly repetitive" is hardly a one-side thing to say either, if anything it is interesting because it has been so persistent!

Getrude seemed worse than Henry tbh in Manchester. I thought this one was meant to be further South?

Super mild sat outside at lunchtime even in the wind, bit of sun made it feel almost like Spring. Beetham Tower was humming really loudly for a while this morning. Strange as it didn't do it on Friday and it stopped after 20 minutes or so, wind must have to be from a really specific direction or something. Reading the model discussion and moan/banter threads is hilarious, think some there should take a break from watching the models for a while and enjoy the warmth!

Manchester rain shadow working its magic again today.

Cycling to work wearing cycling shorts instead of leggings again and not feeling cold at all. Love it.

Winter is over in the model thread, no other kind of weather is worth living for apart from cold and snow apparently. Forecast 11 degrees tomorrow in Manchester up from 5 degrees today. If it's going to rain it might as well be mild I say.

Can't see what all the fuss about a cold snap, pleasant enough today in Manchester and reasonably warm in the sun at lunchtime. Can't remember the last time I saw the sun out for so long, if only it were higher in the sky, Spring can't come soon enough. Yesterday evening was pretty horrible cycling home in cold rain through gridlocked traffic though. Less of that please, would much prefer mild rain if it's not going to snow.

So much straw clutching in the model thread. Just accept that any cold will be short-lived, snow pretty much a non-event and only over hills before the Atlantic waltzes back in next week. We're stuck in a default pattern weather-wise, maybe it will change to something more interesting before the end of Feb or maybe it won't, but no point chasing balloons. No point hoping for marginal snow that's more likely to turn out to be miserable cold rain. The models just got it wrong on the snowpocalypse event in FI a week or so ago. Take a week off model watching I would advise for some and see if anything has changed by then.

Well if it is the norm for a quarter of a century then perhaps it is the new seasonal? Severe cold does kill thousands of vulnerable people when it happens, especially the sickly and elderly in poorly insulated homes and not enough money to spend on heating. But it's probably not as obvious a peril as tv pictures of people being rescued from floodwaters. Ignore the voice of reason at your peril

I didn't say it wasn't an inconvenience, but the fact is we live on a wet island with a culture and history very much defined by the weather we get from the Atlantic. Flooding is a regular fact of life despite our best efforts to contain/control the floodwaters, Whether it is Cumbria, Somerset/Devon/Cornwall, Essex, Yorkshire, Scotland, Thames Valley, Kent or wherever, flooding happens in this country. It's difficult for us to predict exactly where and when and some areas get hit more often than others, but most people generally know (or really ought to know!) if they live in an area which has the potential to be flooded.

No-one did, but I'd gladly listen to examples where cold/snowy/icy is good for people or industry in this country. This country simply isn't prepared like other countries for deep sustained cold/snow for the simple reason that it is pretty rare, definitely not as common as people seem to expect. Growing up in the East Midlands in the 90s I can only remember one properly cold and snowy winter and in the 00s it almost never snowed from my memory. 2009/2010 seems to have distorted expectations of cold prospects in this country I think. And I didn't say I wanted more wet, just damp and gloomy if that is the price for mild. Or at a push seasonal temperatures but dry.

I'll gladly take more mild and damp. Cold and especially ice and snow is just a nuisance and of no use for anything in this country (apart from a few ski resorts in Scotland and possibly the outdoor ice rinks, but they should know better than setting up their rinks so early when there is no guarantee of a cold winter in this country!) Get the feeling that some in the model thread have been counting their chickens before they hatch. I've been lurking for years and still don't understand any of the charts but even I know that anything beyond 3 days is really still a probability guessing game even with the best cross-model support. Days are gradually getting longer so at least that takes the edge off some of the gloominess. South Manchester seems to have quite a nice rain shadow with the recent weather patterns. Certainly hasn't felt anywhere near the 'wettest December on record', London in 2013 seemed much worse. Although of course sympathies to those affected by the flooding. There, I said it, I'm hoping for the models to continue with their flip back to mild. Do I get banned for that opinion?

Cold weather confirmed by the experts. Thank goodness. http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/631670/Flood-Britain-misery-Arctic-blast-UK-weather Well they've got to get it right eventually, I mean they weren't entirely off the mark with their prediction of UK wide snowdrifts starting from December until March... http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/611100/Winter-2015-Heavy-Snow-record-cold-weather-forecast-UK The other thread seems completely schizophrenic at the moment from the point of view of a complete weather noob who still doesn't really understand what all these pretty coloured charts actually mean (lurking since around 2010, I really need to do my homework...). Seem to be setting themselves up for a fall if it doesn't come off as modeled or provide the goods in their location or last long enough or whatever. I appreciate that the people posting in the model thread in the winter are going to be more interested in cold, wintry weather just as those posting in the summer are going to be looking for heatwaves and thunderstorms etc. And I also get that the weather in this country has been consistently uninspiring in recent years, this summer was a non-event in many parts and winter has been very dull and dreary and downright disruptive in the places affected by all the rain. I suspect much of the angst in the model thread is because the weather has been so tediously similar for the last couple of months and boredom is setting in where nothing seems to be changing. But at the end of the day you can't change what the weather does by comparing model outputs and cherry picking charts way beyond the reliable timeframe. Even with all the complicated algorithms and computing power meteorologists have access to we have to accept that we are still pretty rubbish at predicting future weather! Anything beyond 2-3 days and we're still playing a game of probabilities where small changes can significantly alter what happens later down the line and its no-one's fault, it's just the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Personally I'm sad that the models seem in agreement that the mild weather will be leaving us for a while but I won't complain as it is the winter! Hoping for some clear days as suffering from a lack of sunlight at the moment. On the other hand hoping any snow is fleeting and South Manchester's rain shadow will work for the snow as well as while pretty and nice for a day it is completely annoying and a nuisance in this country where we really aren't prepared for it.

Personally I'm loving this insanely mild weather. Yes it is very murky and gloomy and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun, but then tbh the days are so short and the sun so low in the sky that it's probably as good a time as ever for it to be constantly overcast (as long as we don't have yet another grey summer in 2016...) Pros for me: Fingers and toes not going numb when cycling to/from work (+ no ice to worry about) Can sit outside to eat my lunch outside without having to wear a coat Hasn't really been that wet and windy in most places so far (apart from Cumbria which seems to have been screwed over by all the rainfall). Certainly nowhere near as bad as 2013 yet.. Not having to put the heating on all the time Generally mostly harmless weather (apart from the areas affected by flooding) which you can still do most things outside without being bothered by the cold People who I feel sorry for: Those affected by the flooding European ski resorts, not looking great for snow so far and coming after 2014 which had a slow start as well. There hasn't been a mega season across all parts of the Alps for a few years and I think especially some of the lower resorts are going to find themselves struggling and going into decline in the next few years if this is a trend. Even spending huge amounts on snowmaking equipment is useless if temperatures are still too high! People I don't feel sorry for The energy companies starting to panic about winter profits. They never pass on savings to customers when commodity prices fall so screw them when the weather does customers a favour.

Super mild today, no wind, feels like the start of Spring apart from the sun being low in the sky.

I know I've been loving the mild winter so far as I cycle to work and can't be doing with freezing toes/fingers. It's my first winter 'oop North' after a few years being a soft Southerner working in London. Only thing I miss is the sun, Manchester does seem very grey even when it is mostly dry. But if that is the price to pay for mild I will take it.

Can anyone explain to a weather newbie like me why on the radar it looks like the heavy rain has sat in a relatively small area over Cumbria all day without moving while not a million miles away here in Manchester it has been dry all day? (have lurked the model threads for years but still don't understand most of what they are talking about :S)