[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

Hi- yes there is a sign for SSW but there is no sign for negative AO (I mean a really negative ssw AO values). For example the EC Ensembles are expecting that the AO will go up again after a negative values for a short time ! 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

hi- so Kara Sea block makes the a AO go negaive ?!

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Hi guys..i want to ask a question 

what is the different between ecmwf eps mean and control ? 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

The ECMWF monthly control in too good for my country -Israel- at new year's eve 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

 

 

Israel looks like warming up

I mean at the end of the year and At the beginning of the new year.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Hi - it seems that the sceuro high is fixed and the trough will go down to turkey and israel

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

4 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

 And it is as if tonight's ECM has read the script, my script that is. 

Hi..Maybe the question mark will go to middle east / Israel maybe ! 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

58 minutes ago, mezzacyclone said:

I wouldnt be so sure according to the atmospheric & enviro research centre mjo?

"The polar cap geopotential height anomaly plot continues to show a strong stratospheric polar vortex into the foreseeable future"

Yet further into their latest report it becomes ambiguous?

"the models predict a fairly robust pulse of vertical wave activity flux (WAFz) or vertical energy transfer next week that is predicted to perturb the stratospheric polar vortex and cause it to begin weakening" 

Just a bit 'chicken & the egg' syndrome to me?

yes you are right.

i mean the PV will be less stronger.. AO will peak strongly positive early next week before drifting back towards neutral.

 

however in AER, they say : " if our expectations of more upward pulses of WAFz is correct, this should be sufficient to force a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in January"

i think SSW makes the PV very weak which mean AO negative ... am i right ?

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

On 12/15/2015 at 11:54 PM, chionomaniac said:

The above chart the change in geopotential height in metres that the wave 2 creates over any indicated latitude and pressure. For example the height at which the pressure of 10hPa is experienced is not constant and differs. This chart shows the difference in height that the wave creates for any given pressure level.

Hi- thank you so much and thanks for the helpful topics in your previous comment. So the waves affect the PV by split or displace it ? But how that affects europe ? 

By the way there is a sign for a weaker PV i think !

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Hi - the wave 1 and 2 question seems to be the most asked this year. It has already been answered in this thread a number of pages back - if you have missed this then it is always worth going back and rereading the thread in full - at that point it may be easier to explain the wave chart that you have posted!

Hi - i have searched all the pages and i can't find the answer of my question. how can i read the charts and what is the impact of the waves on strat and AO index ? i'm sorry for asking too mush question 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hi MJO and welcome to NW. This is a mean zonal mean wind chart for day 10 and is not the best chart to use to predict strat temperature with - there are many others on the berlin website that can be used to predict this. You can roughly guess the AO index from this chart by looking between 60-90N at 1000hPA and the more easterly component(blue) the more likely we are to see a negative AO. But that is only a rough measure.

Thank you so mush Chionomaniac  

I have another question 

what does this charts mean ? And what does this chart use for ? 

And what do Wave 1 and 2 mean ?

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

Hi guys 

i'm a new member 

i want to ask a question...

i have a problem reading the zonal wind charts. I know that red means westerly wind and blue means easterly wind, so how can i use this chart to predict the strat temperature and AO index ? Thank you