[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

44 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I feel that way about the Exeter 16-30 dayers as well.

What's the harm in making it easier for us all and putting them in one thread?

Basically, in winter I'm interested in

- cold and snow

- how do we get there (strat)

-is there any agreement (Met Office updates)

That's all I'm interested in. 

i agree - mods *please* can we go back to having one model thread!

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Give it a rest. Amazed how so many of your posts get through. They are nothing to the discussion.

In fairness 38.5 degrees' seem to give a pretty fair assessment of the GFS post the weekend. My interpretation was much the same - cold, wet and windy. Let's hope the ECM is right

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Out to T+120 and the 12z is chalk and cheese compared to the 06z at noon on Weds 7th Feb. 
(12z first). Nerve-wracking!

 

thety lok pretty similar to me

 

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Out to T+120 and the 12z is chalk and cheese compared to the 06z at noon on Weds 7th Feb. 
(12z first). Nerve-wracking!

 

they look pretty similar to me

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

what with all the ramping going on the model thread, its nice to come here and see some realism. 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

38 minutes ago, offerman said:

 

 

 There are 6 to 7 extremely strong magnetic areas beneath the Earth‘s surface dotted around the world and unfortunately that Azores high  smack bang on top of one of them and it strengthens and increases the dominance of the high-pressure .  

what is the scientific evidence for this statement?

 

[Storm Eleanor - Atlantic Storm 5]

i'm on an exposed position on Solway coast (Maryport) - windy but nothing unusual yet. Perhaps strongest winds will be further south.

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

13 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

I think that you may well be right about the 850s record for "early" December cold spells - let's say the first half up to Dec 15th, although there is an example of a lower reading in late November 1890 with -18c 850s in south-eastern England (see the 5th chart below). Before I go further........................

Thanks for that excellent post BB1962-3

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well a couple of fascinating tweets from well respected forecasters suggesting things might be getting interesting for coldies - both appear to be suggesting a locked in -NAO

do tell

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again russian warmth is becoming a solid format in evolving cold transfer.

From the hotel whisky a go go making ice cubes from north pole..

Into bycycling 855s of -45..

Soon to become the husband of uk . .

Whos bird greeny blocky will step in for the separation!!!!

??sorry could not resist!!???

i've run that through google translate and it still isn't making sense

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Isn't Newfoundland an unusual neck of the woods for a high, such as modelled in the later stages of the GFS 18z? 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, PLANET THANET said:

 

i nominate:   '...just about nailed'.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Model stand-off is a nailbiter. 18z will be very interesting

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

I'm surprised nobody has commented on the high rainfall totals for the NW being modelled on the 12Z GFS.  We could be seeing flood warning in force for Cumbria and SW Scotland by the end of next weekend.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

1 hour ago, pyrotech said:

i think looking at the two main models tonight ( GFS & ECM), that the focus is on rainfall between now and Christmas day.

Whilst i do want to see some seasonal weather, my thoughts are with those that have had such a dire start to the festive season. The models hint of those same areas getting large rainfall totals again.  The areas namely - southern Ireland, Wales ( Esp North and West) then later to include possibly Cumbria and Western Scotland.

A lot of shannon entropy on how much and where but whilst we model watch here looking for winter, i think this deserves some discussion on each run as it could have some major disruption in some peoples lives.

Does anyone see anything different as my analysis is this is a large risk with over 100mm of rain for some soaked areas over the next week, mainly due to orographic rainfall.

I agree...sometimes tire of all the hunting for cold charts when other significant events are showing on the models. GFS 144 hr rainfall totals for NW England and Wales getting very worrying yet again, increasing as they do with every run.