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Everything posted by Kieran
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I wonder if the Midlands could see a suprise on Thursday. Below is the BBC forecast map for Thursday, as you can see the channel low is going northwards and you'd presume as is meets the colder air around the Midlands the precipitation would turn wintry. By the next frame the precipitation is all gone so it's hard to tell but definitely something to keep a close eye on...
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Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
Kieran replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2568551/britain-to-be-hit-by-eight-inches-of-snow-from-wednesday/ 8 inches?! -
Snow showers drifting into the Midlands (especially the West Midlands) on Thursday evening according to the 12z GFS. Considering the winds will be strong I don't think it's out of the question to think that much of the Midlands could see some decent snow showers....
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Back edge snow for most parts (except for the far south) on New Years Day shown on the GFS. Something to keep an eye on.... -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very true. Or the Synoptics showing on Christmas Eve could be pushed back 12 hours or so and that would bring a white Christmas for most of the UK. Exciting times But yeah models can and probably will change, but to see widespread snow at +150 hours isn't too shabby -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Kieran replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed however there seems to be lots of energy over Greenland at +120 on the ECM which isn't there on the UKMO. Probably will spoil things in the next frame but we shall see... -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM and UKMO at 120.... ECM looks good so far. We just need to see if that atlantic low can dive south in the next frame and undercut similar to the UKMO. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Up to +96 on the GFS and there seems to be a slight shift westwards of the Atlantic energy on this run. Also more of a negative tilt so this is hopefully a good sign.... -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Haha WOOPS. Up to +114 and the secondary low seems much flatter and more willing to sink than on the earlier GFS run. Very positive run so far... -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Up to +90 and it seems like an undercut much more achievable on this run. 6z: 12z: Much more energy heading under the high.... -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z looking like an improvement to my eyes. Better chance of WAA advection at 156 hours. Now if only that low around Greenland would just dive southwards... -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A comparison of the GFS and ECM at day 6: Better 18z so far.... Although not quite there, it seems like the GFS is slowly getting to the pattern the ECM is showing. Hope it continues into tomorrow! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Kieran replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree but both runs give us a good shot of cold with similar uppers. The 12z prolongs the cold for abit longer though. However both runs give us a second shot of cold so both runs are great IMO.