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acbrixton

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Posts posted by acbrixton

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by acbrixton

    Hi,

    Also I have a question for you on here. It seems that a lot of posters on here do not seem to be optimistic about a cold and/or snowy February, at least for the first half with a mainly downbeat mood prevailing. Why is this so considering we have had the one of the coldest winters for the last 30 years and the fact that for this part of the world February is often the coldest month and for where I live at least it is the snowiest month. Is their any credible scientific basis at the moment to say that February will mild or will at least not be cold considering the winter we have had so far and especially looking at how cold parts of mainland Europe have been which has not been the case in the mild winters of the last two decades?

    Luke

    Luke taking your points in turn:

    1. I do not know where you live but it is a fact that for almost the entire British Isles January and February have the same long term averages (the exceptions being areas with a pronounced maritime influence such as Shetland, the Isles of Scilly and the far west of Ireland which are slightly colder in February probably because sea temperatures are close to being at their coldest in February).

    2. There is no long term statistical correlation supporting the idea that cold Januarys lead to cold Februarys. Taking the years 1960 to 2009 inclusive and applying the 1971-2000 averages the CET record shows:

    12 years with cold Januarys and cold Februarys [by 'cold' I mean any value below 4.2c thus a number of the months described here as 'cold' would not in reality be regarded as cold as they would be marginally below average];

    13 years with cold Januarys and mild Februarys;

    8 years with mild Januarys and cold Februarys; and

    17 years with both mild Januarys and Februarys.

    In other words a cold January is about as likley to be followed by a mild as opposed to a cold February.

    3. As regards snowfall the UKMO mapped averages for 1971-2000 indicate that there may be a slightly greater incidence of snowfall for February at low altitude but slightly less at higher altitude (possible because of of lower precipitation in February) but the differences are not significant.

    4. I am not aware of any scientific basis for the assertion that a cold January is more likely than not to be followed by a cold February (certainly there is no statistical basis). Whilst it may be true that colder than average seas and a snow covered continent at the end of January would modify winds from an easterly direction it is worth bearing in mind that such modification would not apply to westerlies and that in any event SST anomalies and continental snow cover can and often are reversed in less than a month.

    regards

    ACB

    Forum "frothing" Alerts System

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    If we have winter frothers we should have Mild Rampers aswell

    Adam that is a type of 'false symmetry': first most of those members who predict mild weather are not 'ramping' (i.e. indulging in strained and fanciful interpretations of the charts) but are simply realistic, secondly, and therefore, the number of mild rampers is too small to justify an alert system.

    Shuggs, thanks for the guide. I cannot recall a time on NW when a 'red alert' would have ever been required; perhaps a repetition of 1974/5, 1988/9 or 1998/9?

    regards

    ACB

    The Quiet Sun - Climatic Consequences

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Here's some info from Abdussamatov, Head of the Russian Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory.

    http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

    Jethro, thanks for the link.

    A few thoughts:

    1. The complete dismissal of alternative hypotheses and absolute confidence in TSI theory does not indicate an open or enquiring mind;

    2. The certainty of the forecasts for global temperatures over the next 30 years or so is astonishing: we will know soon enough if there is anything to their hypothesis;

    3. To use one small piece of data on arctic ice minimas comparing 2007 to 2008 as evidence of global cooling/stabilisation is dubious science;

    4. Even if temperature trends on Mars, Jupiter and Pluto could be properly used as supporting evidence (which I very much doubt) 6 years of observations would be scarcely enough to establish such supporting evidence;

    5. If, as the authors state, ACW/Co2 theory is utterly irrelevant then why on earth do they suggest that Kyoto be "put off for at least 150 years"? If AGW theory is wholly irrelevent then it must follow that Kyoto is pointless now and in the future?

    6. The assertion that the Renaissance was possible because of the MWP is grotesquely simplistic determinism. It is apparent that the Maunder Minimum did little to stop European scientific advances e.g. Pascal, Newton, Leeuwenhoek, Darby, Leibnitz etc.(to say nothing of philosophical and artistic developments);

    7. To assert that the 'existence' of Scottish vineyards in the 10th-13th centuries shows that the MWP was warmer than now is absurd:

    7.1 Whilst Selley in 'Winelands of Britain' claims that there was one Scottish vineyard in the 12c this seems highly unlikely as the survey of English vineyards in the 11thc 'Domesday Book' records no vineyards north of a line from Ely to Gloucstershire and Lamb mentions only 2 (later) vineyards to the north of that line: Lincoln and Leeds;

    7.2 In any event viticulture cannot be used as a simple proxy for average annual temperatures: average temperatures during the growing season, seasonal sunshine/rainfall patterns, the risk of late frosts are relevant;

    7.3 There is ample evidence that both the production and use of wine was wholly different in medieval and earlier times: Pliny the elder records the use of both honey and boiling grape juice to sweeten and fortify wine and medieval records apparently show that this continued in later centuries along with the addition of honey and spices when serving wine. The implications of this are that it would have been possible to produce wine (as then understood) in cooler and wetter conditions than would be possible for what we now understand by 'wine';

    7.4 As Jethro points out the decline of the medieval wine industry to be considered without , for example, reference to changing trade patterns (i.e. the importation of superior wines from Acquitaine under the Plantagenet dynasty) and the dissolution of the monasteries in 1536;

    7.5 Selley notes in any event that there was a brief renaissance in English wine production in the 17th and 18th centuries (i.e. at the time of the Maunder Minimum).

    regards

    ACB

    Do We Need The Met Office?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Well Mondy:

    1. For shipping/aviation purposes the MO is essential;

    2. Their record in short term forecasting (up to 72 hours) is regarded as generally highly reliable (and has improved in the last 20 odd years);

    3. They carry our extensive data collection services from a large network of stations and maintain historical records;

    4. They have access to data that you and I do not;

    5. They have the advantage of superior computeing power and an extensive staff;

    6. Their staff are specialist scientists with valuable experience;

    7. Unlike a number of amateurs it may be safely assumed that the MO review and consider data objectively.

    regards

    ACB

    Met Office Claims 'barbecue Summer' Prediction Was Right ...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    "All joking aside, these seasonal forecasts are clearly still very experimental. Next time, they should calm the press office folk down before they dream up their headline grabbing press release and stick to the science!"

    I agree..."barbecue summer" was a daft phrase; imprecise and raising wholly unreasonable expectations. It was, apparently, supposed to assist press coverage of the seasonal forecast. Journalists need no encouragement to mis-report/exaggerate the findings or forecasts of meterologists and climatologists.

    regards

    ACB

    July CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Take away the first five days CET as someone two posts above mentioned and this July CET wise is a poor one indeed, with persistant low maxima, it has been the relatively slightly above normal minima alongside the first five days which have saved this month being recorded as a fairly sunstantially below average month. Here in Windermere we have failed to see anything higher than 21 degrees since the 5th and on most days maxima have been between 17 - 19 degrees, very poor statistics for July.

    Damian, I think that "very poor" is pushing it!

    Bearing in mind that the 1971-2000 average July maxima for Aspatria (at 62m) is 19.2c and Newton Aycliffe (169m) is 19.4c, I imagine that your average would be about 19.5c. So near to slightly below average: disappointing but not really "very poor".

    regards

    ACB

    Bitter Cold Weather Films

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    Ossie please see below a table I drew up a while ago...

    Kind regards

    ACB

    Decade Mean days p.a 0c or less; Years with 5 or fewer days 0c or less; Years with 10-19 days 0c or less; Years with 20-39 days 0c or less; Years with more than 40 days 0c or less; Years with 10+ days 0c or less

    1998-2007 3.0 8 0 0 0 0

    1988-1997 6.8 4 3 0 0 3

    1978-1987 15.4 1 4 3 0 7

    1968-1977 7.1 4 3 0 0 3

    1958-1967 14.0 1 3 1 1 5

    1948-1957 10.9 5 3 2 0 5

    1938-1947 16.8 4 3 2 1 6

    1928-1937 7.8 5 2 1 0 3

    1918-1927 7.1 5 3 0 0 3

    1908-1917 8.4 5 2 1 0 3

    1898-1907 10.1 2 7 0 0 7

    1888-1897 17.9 1 2 4 0 6

    1878-1887 16.8 3 2 3 1 6

    1868-1877 10.1 4 1 2 0 3

    1858-1867 14.6 2 5 3 0 8

    1848-1857 13.2 2 4 2 0 6

    1838-1847 18.5 0 4 5 0 9

    1828-1837 11.8 3 4 2 0 6

    1818-1827 14.5 2 3 3 0 6

    1808-1817 21.5 0 4 5 1 10

    1798-1807 18.2 0 6 3 0 9

    1788-1797 14.4 2 3 2 1 6

    1778-1787 19.4 1 3 3 1 7

    What's Wrong With My Rose?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Try a weak washing up liquid solution, scale insects hate it.

    Iwas intrigued to see in a gardening magazine recently a warning to the effect that under EU regulations relating to garden pesticides, the use of dilute washing up liquid as a garden pesticide is unlawful as it has not been specifically approved for that purpose!

    God preserve us.

    regards

    ACB

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