acbrixton

I would add that in the south east the 2 summers preceding 1993 were rather poor (from recollection). But what sticks in my mind was the difference between the early May bank holiday weekends of 1990 and 1991; on borh occasions I took a break in south east Suffolk [Campsea Ash near Wickham Market]. In 1990 we had hot sunshine (28c max?) bur taking a 12 mike walk to the coast [Aldeborough] the effect of a still cool North Sea and easterly breezes meant a dramatic fall in temperature at the coast. Preceisely 1 year later the weather was cold and overcast with a maximum in EA of 7-8c ! Regards ACB

Fascinating posts Mr Data. Interestingly (well for lawyer nerds anyway) is the fact that an attempt was made to fix the date of Easter in the UK on the first Sunday after the second Saturday in April and legislation was enacted in 1928. However it has never been brought into effect (no doubt due to the complete impossibility of achieving a consensus with non-Anglican demnominations) [i should add that the BBC New website states only that the House of Commons passed the bill not that it procedded to Royal Assent...] Interestingly the Vatican has been broadly in favour of a fixed date since 1963 and formally proposed a fixed date in 1990 provided that all denominations and governments agreed. Needless to say there is no prospect that Easter will be fixed for the foreseeable future... Regards ACB

Sorry but buying a packet of leaves only makes sense if you intend to use then that day (or at a pinch the next day). Keep cool in the salad drawer in the 'fridge. Better alternatives: 1. Buy a supermarket basil plant and keep on a sunny windowsill, keep moist but do not waterlog. You will be able to pick for a good week or more. 2. Better still transplant the basil plant into a slightly bigger pot filled with a general purpose potting compost and keep moist. Feed once a week with a little dilute tomatorite: do not over feed; better still but some slow release fertiliser pellets from a garden centre and place one in the pot every 6-8 weeks thus ensuring a steady release of nutrients. Keep in a warm sunny place and place outside after 2 weeks in a warm sheltered part of your garden during the day taking back inside in the evening. Then (depending on local conditions) keep outside when all risk of frost/ground frost has passed. I grow basil outside from mid/late May harvesting the last leaves from mid October to early November but then I am in inner London and benefit from locally warm nights. As to other herb plants: they are best planted in pots which will create warmer growing conditions. Mint can easily be grown in open ground but it is incredibly invasive and for that reason alone should always be grown in a pot. Mint will die back in winter vut needs little protection. Water mint well in summer. Rosemary/Thyme are natives of dry stony mediterannean hillsides and need a gritty well drained soil and after the first month or so minimal watering. No protection neede in winter. Each spring fork a little bonemeal into the soil otherwise leave alone. Flat leaf parsley is a b.gger to germinate so buy plants not seed. It needs a oist rich soil and careful watering. Pick any stems that show signs of flowering as this will stop leaf production. Generally you will need to replace a plant after 2 years. Needs some protection from frost in winter. Feed with slow release pellets. Tarragon (French for cooking not the flavourless Russian) needs protection from all frost/ground frost and is not very happy at temperatures under 5c so take inside or cover up with horticultural fleece or bracken in winter. Needs a fairly rich soil and careful watering. Looked after it will come up for several years. Feed with slow release pellets. Fianlly have a go with rocket: the easiest thing to germinate and fairly frost hardy (I sowed some in early November in a pot outside with no preotection andit is growing well now!). Needs a well frained soil but also warmth got rapid growth and water. Do not sow the whole packet as all the seeds will come up so staggger sowings to ensure a continous crop from late spring to October. Thin out (you can eat the thinnings) and then pick off leaves or take up whole plants as required. Regards ACB

Well that is a new one for me!..."sleety blizzard conditions" Regards ACB

Interesting to read the widespread reports of snow even in Bucks, Kent and East Sussex. However can we please not misuse the term "blizzard": a heavy snow shower with a temporary covering of 1 or 2 cm and a bit of wind does not a blizzard make! Regards ACB

A rather restrained post KW! Regards ACB

yes and June is esp interesting as the other 2 summer months (esp August) are noticeably warmer drier and sunnier when comparing the 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 averages. I set out below the stats for London for avge max temp, avge min temp, rainfall and sunshine for the 3 summer months. 1961-1990 first and 1971-2000 following : June: 20.2 20.2; 11.0 11.1; 49.3 53.0; 189 180.6 July: 22.2 22.8; 13.2 13.6; 44.0 38.3; 182.3 190.3 August: 21.8 22.6; 12.9 13.3; 49.8 47.3; 179,8 194.4 Note the increase in August's sunshine: although it has only the 4th most daylight it is now the sunniest month and June is only the third sunniest month... Regards ACB

Ahh the old LNER advertising slogan from the 1930s [i imagine you remember the LNER!] Regards ACB

Metomania many thanks: yes I think your recollection is right: I can remember people sunbathing in Surrey... Regards ACB

I imagine it would be possible given the existing record of 29.4c however the chances must be pretty remote. I am uncertain though as to whether the April 1949 heat wave was/is unprecedented. My very vague recollection is that we have had at least 1 instance of 25c in April in the last 25 years. Mr Data do you happen to know how many instances in the 20th century temps have reached or exceeded 25c in April? Regards ACB

It sticks in mind ever since as an editor of my school magazine I was corrected (an article on nits I think!) Regards ACB

Pedant's corner: that should be "fine-tooth comb" Regards ACB

GP thanks for the objective and scholarly summary. Look forward to the summer and 2006-7 winter forecasts. Regards ACB

Mr Data many thanks for this: salutary and illuminating! Regards ACB

Ian thanks for your work and your objectivity: a pretty good effort I think. What interests me is how the MO managed to get so much detail right even though their reasoning (based upon a negative NAO) was, in the event quite wrong? It would be useful if we could have a similar post-mortem on Roger's forecast using quite different methods... Regards ACB

I was living in NW Surrey (Byfleet near Weybridge) and working in central London I remember bitterly cold days and amazing sever frosts (even in central London we had ice days). However in my part of Surrey and in central London there was very little snow (about 1/2" in Byfleet). However in east and south east London there was heavy and disruptive snow. I have never forgotten the attitude of my employers (a small firm of solicitors whose partners lived in north and west London where there was little snow) towards a secretary who faced atrociuos conditions trying to coomute from Faversham Kent by train. She was often late and was once trapped by blixxards. The poor woman became ill and was off sick but she was regarded as a malingerer as the partners were unable to comprehend that condition elsewhere in the south east were dreadful. Regards ACB

I suspect that even more important than bridge design was the embanking of the Thames in central London in the second quarter of the 19c (and later). The paintings of the 18c (Canaletto?) suggest a "lazier" more sluggish flow arising from the higher friction from irregular banks and an irregular/wider river bed adjacent to the banks. Regards ACB

John many thanks: I was just about going to edit (having read the impressive posts by you and Brickfielder on another thread ) that I would always distinguish the "pure" NW forecast team input from the gfs based snow forecasts. Apologies as I should have made that distinction. Regards ACB

I forgot to post the exciting news of a 5 minute very wet snow shower yesterday in Brixton at 1.50pm. Sleetish rain late evening. Now that makes so far: 3 days sleet 1 day snow grains 2 days snow flurries/showers one of which produced a temporary and pitiably light covering (27.12: the day of the fabled Thames Streamer) Worse total than the previous 2 winters. Now if the amusingly precise NW "chance- of- snow -in- Lambeth" forecasts were to have come off (how in the name of all that is holy can anyone presume to forecast a 95% risk of snow 7 days in advance when it is hard enough to get it right 12 hours in advance?) then I would have had well over 20 days of snowfall already... regards ACB

latest depth appears to be 26.9" in Central Park regards ACB

A couple of points recalled from that winter: 1. Certainly cold in London with some severe frosts and probably the odd ice day in late Dec/early Jan, 2. Although I saw snow on 19 separate days there was never more than a covering of 1/2" and often rather less than that. Regards ACB

But not, of course, in Abingdon

Good God LS it is even snowing here in Brixton

Heavens...A possibility first mooted by Mr Roger Smith (wedding nuptials to one of GF Handel's lesser known orartorios "The Freeze of 1739/40") regards ACB

Re outliers: here is a pm to John Holmes and his response: John may I please trouble you for some guidance. I have often mused as to precisely what test is applied to the ensembles when the term "outlier" is used (either regarding the control run, or more rarely, other runs) It seems to me that there may be several ways of tackling this: 1. There is no strict definition in that "outlier" is not a formally defined term (rather like "Bartlett" it is no more than an informal but useful shorthand term) and thus requires an exercise of subjective judgement with the inevitable result that there may properly be disagreements as to the application of the term in border line cases. 2. There is a precise mathematical formula applied e.g. a particular run is [x c] above or below the mean or some other benchmark. 3. There is the test applied by TEITS and Kold Weather (apropos the 00z London ensemble where I described the control run at the end of the period as a "considerable cold outlier") where if a run is "supported" (i.e, I assume, other runs at various times show a similar value) then there can, by definition, be no outlier. If this is the case how many other runs' support is required and over what period? Sorry to make a meal out of this (but what do you expect from a lawyer...) Many thanks kind regards Andrew hi Andrew Sorry I'm so late with any reply. I saw it early yesterday and then forgot about it! I'm no expert on Ensembles but am not aware of any objective guidance. This is the best I can do and was posted by Paul a short time ago. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=25663 hope it helps regards John