acbrixton

15cm here at 5am and snowing heavily. 20cm plus now likely by mid morning. regards ACB

13cm here at 4am. Heavy snow now and some wind. I am starting to think that it is just possible for February 1991's 21cm to be equalled my mid to late morning. Truly extraordinary. regards ACB

LLWA have you any pics please? regards ACB

11cm here at 3am. Heavy dryish snow with only minimal drifting so far although the wind seems to have picked up a little. By 8am I imagine that we will have at least 15/16cm or 6". regards ACB

Surely to God you have at least a dusting? regards ACB

Well with 8cm plus here rather fewer Abingdons than I thought earlier. I still maintain that snow depths of 12" in Raynes Park is way off beam... regards ACB

LLWA: your forecast yesterday looks less unrealistic! Already at midnight I have 8cm or 3.25" (approx). As Londonsnow remarked earlier this is the most significant snowfall in inner London since February 1991. regards ACB

Caught by surprise by the temperatures and the heaviness of the snow. A few flurries this afternoon then 2 hours intermittently moderate to heavy snow. Just re-started here and about 3/4". So: Apology 1. There is such a thing as the (formerly fabled) "Thames Streamer"; I duly apologise to Mr S Murr for repeatedly doubting it. Apology 2. To the member in south west London on whom yesterday I poured some scorn asserting that a depth of over 2" locally would be most unlikely: I would be surprised if that depth is not reached by the early hours (I still estimates of 10cm+ are pushing it and 25cm is wholly unrealistic). regards ACB

Some wild and uncontrollable ramping tonight from, I regret to say, south west London: a friend of a mate who grits roads has, apparently, forecast falls of 6-12". Six inches was last achieved in this area in February 1991 (8" in fact); I doubt that 12" of level snow (excluding perhaps the fringes of the North Downs) has occurred in south west London since perhaps 1962/3. Ramp level 4 and goodness knows how many potential Abingdons. We should be on our guard against a high risk of Telfordian 'misoverstimating' of snow depths. Vigilance! regards ACB

LLWA, 16cm is about 6" and 25cm about 10". I would have thought that it is extraordinarly unlikely that anywhere in south west London will see anything like 6" of lying snow. In the last 21 years in Brixton I have only once experienced over 2" snow and that was in early February 1991 when I recorded 8". I would be surprised if we had more than 2" in the next 48 hours. regards ACB

3.8c for me please. regards ACB

No, no Yeti; that cannot be right. An 'Abingdon', strictly so called, is the SI unit of disappointment not over-optimistic sno measurement. regards ACB

Nick yes the UKMO still uses the 1961-1990 mean as a baseline in accordance with the World Meterological Organisation's convention. As to why the WMO still uses that baseline, I cannot say. regards ACB

My guess is 4.0c. regards ACB

To which one might add a tendency to believe in the fabled 'Thames Streamer'; our very own 'Lake Effect'. I well remember the confident forecast from Bexleyheath on 27/12/05 for heavy snow showers in Greater London that day due to the TS (apparently unbeknown to us all the wind was not in the right direction...). regards ACB

Good God! I haven't seen anything like this since the build up to the infamous 'failed easterly' of early 2006. A touch of anti-Athenian jingoism from Bexleyheath; shameless ramping from Kent (even from a 'Senior Forecaster'- think of the impressionable younger members); from the Fens (predictably) it is now a question of 'not if but when'...how long before we are assured that "this easterly is now set in stone"? It can only be a matter of time before Cork, Bude, Luton and Weymouth start to declare snow depth predictions for the week after next. All credit to the Palatinate of Durham for alluding to the well known tendency of the 18z run to "like a drink". Strangely enough I have not seen the term 'Pub Run' today... No reports yet linking the models' predictions for 10 days' time to the death of AGW theory. Regards ACB

Thank heavens...not before time too. There are already ominous signs of a post-Christmas ramp! regards ACB

The CET average for winter 2005/6 was 4.1c; 1995/6 3.0c and the 1971-2000 average is 4.5c. If December's CET is, say, 4.0c then to beat 2005/6 would require an average of 4.0c or less for January and February; not unrealistic as both those months' long term average is 4.2c. However if December comes in at, say, 4.5c the rest of the winter would have to record 3.7c/3.8c to beat 2005/6; the last time that winter had two months at or below 4c was 1996/7. To equal or beat 1995/6 is a long shot, to say the least: the winter CET was 3.0c. Thus if December comes out at 4.5c the remainder of the winter would have to record an average of 2.3c: in 1995/6 this was not achieved as the two coldest months recorded 2.5c and 2.3c. Even in 1990/1 the two coldest months averaged 2.4c. On that basis I would say very unlikely. If December was to record 4.0c the remaining winter months would have to average 2.5c to equal 1995/6 and even would entail two winter months colder than we have seen since 1995/6. Regards ACB

A few days ago a member attempted to pour scorn on predictions made in recent years (Stratos Ferric comes to mind) to the effect that the Scottish ski-ing industry was economically marginal owing to its poor to variable snow cover (last season's improved cover notwithstanding). Here is today's update by the Ski Club of Great Britain, in the fourth week of an excitingly cold December: "The snow cover at Cairngorm (15cm) is hard packed and it is icy in places. Due to the lack of complete cover and the condition of the snow it is currently not advisable for beginners to ski there. A storm over the weekend has also damaged some of the lifts, so the resort is assessing these. You can ski to the middle on Traverse, Cas and the Gunbarrel but it is not possible to ski to the base station. The recent thaw has affected the snow cover at the Nevis Range. The Gondola is open on Monday but skiing is currently only available on the artificial slope. Glencoe and Glenshee are closed due to insufficient snow cover. The Lecht has suffered a power failure so all of the facilities are closed. They also have very little snow cover." regards ACB

Surrey 22/4 1979 and late April Oxford 1981; about 1" 9am on both occasions. April 2008 south London? regards ACB

5.5c for my guess please. regards ACB

That occurred to me...from the Victoria History of Middlesex (before 1850): "In the late 18th and early 19th centuries the spread of villas along some of the lanes branching off High Road was more noticeable than the growth of separate hamlets...The residential nature of most new building gave late-18th-century Tottenham the appearance of an extended, semi-rural suburb rather than a town. Industry, apart from brick-making, was virtually confined to riverside mills until the construction of a lace-factory in 1810 and a silk-factory five years later...As late as 1859 the authoress [sic] Mrs. J. H. Riddell described Tottenham as a very quiet and secluded town, where fortunes could be made by enterprising traders or craftsmen who secured the patronage of the local gentry. West Green, where she lived, might be a hundred miles from London and did not take easily to strangers from Tottenham itself..." The description of Tottenham as a 'town' presumably came after the arrival of the Northern and Eastern Railway at Tottenham Hale in 1840. So, yes, in 1828 I would say a blend of country houses, smart outer suburban villas and farm land. regards ACB From: 'Tottenham: Growth before 1850', A History of the County of Middlesex: Volume 5: Hendon, Kingsbury, Great Stanmore, Little Stanmore, Edmonton Enfield, Monken Hadley, South Mimms, Tottenham (1976), pp. 313-317. URL: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=26985. Date accessed: 17 November 2008.

Daniel, your forecasts are always entertaining and impressively consistent. There are however a couple of points where I wonder if you might clarify the forecast: 1. Is it your expectation that in central London the Thames will freeze over completely although ice thickness will be insufficient to allow crossing by foot? If so that would be the first time since the Thames was embanked and the old London Bridge demolished in the second quarter of the 19th century; even in 1895 there were only ice floes in central London i.e. the Thames was not frozen over; 2. You expect the freezing over to happen "soon" and "after 2010"; could you please tell us by which year you expect this to happen, e.g. are you confident that this will happen by, say, 2015 at the latest? regards ACB

"STats is not my strong point." Iceberg, you do yourself a considerable injustice! Many thanks for taking the time to produce such a useful and illuminating paper. regards ACB

My point is that even when the price of oil was very low in 1998 many western governments expressed concern about AGW; i.e. advocacy of AGW is not dependent upon high oil prices. A small point: oil is now around $61-64 per barrel. regards ACB