[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

I learnt a long time ago not to write off winter for any snow until end of April. I am thinking back to March 2006, when we had the most snow I have seen for many years.

A change is afoot. In the meantime, Storm Henry will feel more like a hurricane over the western Isles tomorrow, high tides and strong winds will make some treacherous conditions. I think all models have underplayed this one. It has a nasty sting in its tail.

 

[C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016]

Given the SSW probability, I am going for the coldest month of the winter (and any recently of)  3.5C

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

I have been watching the GFS really closely the past 5 or so days. it is sticking to its guns about that SSW around the 5th of Feb +220hrs onwards. I know it is still way off, but the GFS seems to be great at picking up events, they then disappear and then come back again, such as some of the deep lows that have bombarded our shorelines.I  have a feeling it is onto something.

 

[Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards]

Hi folks, first post! I think the GFS is toying with the idea of rebuilding/ toppling the high pressure over the continental Europe (France). ECM looks more realistic (ever the optimist). I also think GFS will change its tune and begin to agree with the ECM.