[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Day 10 said:

It's not even this weekend yet.

It's the model discussion thread. At least he posted a model and commented on it

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I've just popped on the 'model discussion thread' to see posts about the models hoping there'll be some model related discussion and some screen shots, links to models and I've been let down again. 

Folk talking about hopes for snow, mby, moaning, posters bigging themselves up about how they were right a week back etc etc......very little actual model discussion

[Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward]

1 minute ago, DerbyshireDales said:

Is it snowing in Alfreton? That’s where I am from. We have no snow yet here in Tansley. 

It is yes. Very light but starting to show on the pavements but it's blowing around a bit

[Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward]

We're right in line for that area pepping up between the wash and humber and already have a light covering. Bring it on

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

12 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Now that is one event that will stick long in my memory here in Leeds. Heavy persistent rain in the afternoon that at 5pm turned to heavy snow. And by 9pm we had 40cm!!! Cars abandoned everywhere. Now I laugh every time someone says ‘the snow won’t lay the grounds too wet’. Well on that day the ground was soaked but was covered in no time. Amazing. And just to add it was the day Cantona Kung fu kicked the palace fan

Mine was 1 of the cars. It wasnt forecast, meto forecast rain. The snow line was just south of the m62 and in Sheffield it rained all day I recall. Heaviest snow I've seen. 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

8 minutes ago, russell k said:

Hmmm, sorry bluearmy.. but If we have a 10% chance on 5 days it should equate to 50% over that period of it snowing on one day of those 5, a bit like rolling a dice 3 times you have a 50% chance of rolling a six regardless of which dice I use, thats why I dont understand how the % chance is calculated,

I take it than the same member has to predict below -5 *50s and precipitation at the same time. Sometimes they add up to more than 100% but it doesnt snow over those 15 days, anyway lets hope the latest NWP shows a higher chance

 

In the same way that if you had a 1 in 10 chance of winning a race every day over 5 days you would have had a 50% chance of winning one of the races? 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone who says this, for me, must know the answer to this question then...

How long is a piece of a string? 

17cm

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

 

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Based on what evidence?