Windblade
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Posts posted by Windblade
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Still waiting for any rainfall whatsoever since friday night...let alone anything remotely stormy and so the forecast continues to be dry for these parts.
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Still waiting for all these gales and rain we were supposed to get on saturday...
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
Can totally understand. All the big words are just for practising for University for me (hopefully). QG (Quasi-Geostrophic) forcing local maximas just mean, the changes in landscape or pressure deformation affecting storm formation. Most models won't pick them out to their true extent. Though the high resolution models will generally get a better idea of positioning of course. The pressure deformation (shortwave trough) is the main reason here. Though it's a bit further south than it was modelled yesterday and weaker.
Interesting. However, I think I need to increase my knowledge of dissecting all the various data more first though before I start doing my own forecasts! Tell you what, if I had my time again I'd definitely consider either becoming a Meteorologist or an Astronomer. I find both subjects utterly fascinating.
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Just now, Eagle Eye said:
True true. Its downgraded since last night to be fair.
I'd love to do my own forecasting but I've always been much better at raw instincts than using data!
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52 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Oddly nothing in parts further north in Ireland given quite a few models still supporting that QG forcing that I talked about along with decent MLCAPE.
Yeah, different forecasters using different data and/or having different opinions I guess!
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Nicks forecast is out as well...
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Drove through a couple of small but quite heavy showers today about midday along the A2/M2 in Kent. Looks like there's some stuff around on radar as well. Had a couple of very brief showers here where I'm in Dartford this afternoon as well. Nothing thundery though. I'm hoping against hope that the lows coming in this weekend will have some embedded elevated sparky stuff in them.
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On 11/07/2023 at 15:54, DanN said:
Petrichor
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKPetrichor is the smell of rain. The word comes from the Greek words 'petra', meaning stone, and 'ichor', which in Greek mythology refers to the golden fluid that...
Ah that's the one. I'd heard the name before but had no idea how to pronounce or spell! I love that fresh rain smell.
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I wish I didn't have cfs. I would of considered taking up chasing again tomorrow if it weren't for that.
You have so much more chance of seeing something good when you're mobile and options open up to you.
Well, going to sign off for the day now so good luck everyone in the risk zone.
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Well it's got heavier. No idea where this has come from and it's in no way convective but I'll take it as I still love rain (and absolutely adore that smell)...
9 minutes ago, Sprites said:Almost 1mm of rain overnight, not sure the drains can take any more.
You can always send it my way - I'll be more than happy to take it!
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A few spots of rain mixed in with light drizzle here. Unexpected. Still, nothing remotely convective.
Blitz beginning to pickup in other places...
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13 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:
Beginning to look the part to the N & NE of Brum
Some nice inflow going on there.
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Yeah, looks like it's starting to get going on radar.
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Yeah, not bitter at the usual suspects getting their daily storms at all.
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15 hours ago, JR319 said:
Looks like the SE will receive very little rain compared to everywhere else for the next few days.
Tell me about it.
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34 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I use Metcheck for longer range (up to 4-5 days ahead) then UKWW give excellent summaries the night before (if not first thing the morning of the day in question).
CW was also a great forecast and it’s really a sad day to see it gone, but there are still a lot of other sites on the case including the very good Netweather storm risk forecasts, and of course the forecasts being put out on this very forum - which has some excellent synoptic discussions when needed
Thanks buddy, I will check out Metcheck and UKWW. Never used them before but more info is good!
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3 minutes ago, Harry said:
Seeing the potential for some overnight storms across C/S England tomorrow night into the early hours of Wednesday. GFS and NMM disagreeing where peak instability will be (NMM favouring more central and somewhat northern areas while GFS preferring further south) but several hundred J/Kg CAPE could see some storms in the offing.
I will again follow your optimism Harry - last time I did that we were rewarded!
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45 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Dan has hung up his warning gloves.
Ah I see, that's a shame.
I wonder if anyone else will take over?
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
Is todays rain frontal for England or anything of interest.
Well, netweather have a storm warning out (nothing from convective weather though?) so depending on where you are it could be of interest. I'm not expecting anything here at all except the boiling hot sun we have again and seem to get Every. Single. Day.
They say it's cooled down but it was 18 here at just gone 7am and last night was one of the most humid and uncomfortable nights this year for me so it may be cooler temp wise but sure doesn't feel it. Just feels really sweaty, hot and disgusting here but the ingredients for any precip let alone a storm don't seem to be coming together of late so all we get is the revolting heat/humidity and no payoff.
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No storms all weekend - just boiling hot sun yesterday as usual.
We did get a bit of relief saturday morning when we had a couple of moderate showers that lasted a few minutes each but that was all. Then in the afternoon the boiling hot sun came out again as expected.
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10 hours ago, Woollymummy said:
I was too far from the A 40 to see the ground, but the underneath of the cloud was being pulled down into points. I saw similar formations before, multiple eddies. We have had a v small tornado cross through our garden one it’s way to Oxford once, knocked a bit of our giant conifer down, as well as a couple of friends’ damage in a straight line in the direction the squall was moving. We missed it but got back to find the wrecked tree. These clouds looked similar.
Yeah, sounds Tornadic from what you describe. Would be good to see if any passers by got any pictures so we can confirm. I'm still waiting to see my first uk Tornado. Had a few close ones (cones/funnels) but nothing that touched down yet.
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16 hours ago, Thunders said:
As long as I can remember I’ve loved them. Before 2017, I just kinda said nice but now I will track radar to seek them out, sadly can’t drive yet, im a few years away from a drivers license
Funnily enough I started storm chasing on a de-restricted moped! Absolutely true. I saw some fantastic storms back then (late 90's/early 00's).
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35 minutes ago, Harry's House said:
Every other day. There were still a number of thunder-free days.
Good enough for me!
Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Windblade
Awesome. At least they didn't refer to it as a "mini" tornado!
Is it just me or is the humidity through the roof? I haven't checked any figures recently but last night I felt extremely hot/sweaty even though it wasn't actually that warm at all.
Also, to the weather gods - Can the south east, in particular Bexley actually get some proper rain/storms please like the rest of the country has enjoyed for a month? Many thanks!