Damien
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Posts posted by Damien
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I'm never gonna get any sleep tonight. :lol:
As a child the first thing I learn't about meteorology was how airmasses bring weather and not wind direcion. This was taken from a very basic book on meteorology and is appropiate considering your post above.When you were at school surely the textbooks didn't factor in greenhouse much - if at all?
You see N,lys can come from many synoptic set ups but can all bring wildly different weather. These can vary from a N,ly via an atlantic HP, passage of LP, Greenland HP. Now if you have a N,ly where the airmass is actually coming from the Atlantic and is riding over the top of the HP system and then pulling S over the UK all you are going to get is average temps with snowfall restricted to high ground. The other problem with this type of N,ly is it quickly changes to NW,ly then W,ly as LP rides over the top of the Atlantic HP.Thank you for pointing out something that was extremely relevant to my argument that I had missed. Kudos.
(That being, of course... the weakness of northerly weather patterns in general - let alone in the modern age.)
Now we come to the daddy of cold winter synoptics and that is the Greenland HP system which basically shuts the door on LP systems moving into the UK with these usually forced S. If you get a N,ly this way then over a period of days the airmass becomes progressively colder with usually a series of cold fronts moving S, each bringing colder artic airmass. Now obviously the bonus of such a set up isn't just the bitterly cold temps, S,ly tracking LPs but the way such a pattern becomes prolonged and locked in.This is the problem with our winters, we see very little blocking over Greenland and any blocking over Scandi isn't robust enough and secondly is usually to far S in latittude so we pick up a SE,ly sourced airmass rather than an airmass originating from siberia. This is why the ideal cold winter synoptics can clearly be seen on the 78/79, 62/63 winters and the ideal E,ly being that of Jan 87.
I was about to type 'We had these weather patterns a lot in the mid-2000s and they still failed to deliver' but then I saw your last point, re.: the south-easterly (often Turkish or in that (maritime) region), and I am inclined to agree on that: but I still believe current synoptics and climate change is going against a true easterly like that of the fabled 1987 or my beloved 1995/96.
When I say current synoptics I go back to one of my earlier arguments on the forum of how sheer rare these things are: let alone all the 'ideal' synoptics needed to give us a cold winter based on that weather pattern/(proposed)(?) synopsis. Believe me - a lot had to come together in the atmosphere to give us the mid-1990s. The mid-1980s may have been just a natural variable (am I phrasing that right? sorry - tired), although these synoptics did indeed play a role in it: as they did in much earlier winters. Going back to most recent example though - which I of course as you will know from talking to me in the past always recommend for citing/citation/example usage - of the mid-1990s - that was then: imagine how much sheer synoptics are going to have to come together in the age of 'greenhouse' to give us our fabled 'modern cold winter', LOL (I shouldn't laugh really though... this is like mental trauma for us all).
Factor into that as well the theory that the greenhouse effect may be actually changing our synoptics (I/we all mostly on here clearly say for the worst) so that such weather patterns - again let alone the more, shall I say... 'radical'(?) ones needed to get ourselves even a moderately decent cold set-up in the first place - become less prevalent in our meteorological future. You don't seem to have factored this in - your thoughts on that...?
So saying a month is dominated by N,lys means very little because you need to look back at the archives to see exactly where these N,lys were coming from!Or the climate models to see where they're going to.
Or how rare such things are anyway, LOL!
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http://conservativekids.blogspot.co...imate-tour.html lol
I note certain members have gone into hiding atm. Fingers crossed this continues. Last year's minimum wont be beaten now unless some catastrophe happens I agree with you there. Its a question of how close to average it gets. A pattern like this heading into Winter would really be something.
How can a conservative website go on about encroaching ice? I thought they would have been more obsessed with warm weather and increasing temperatures?
Strange.
Where's Taras Incognito when you need him? Taras - you still in 'the Shed of the Soviets'? :lol:
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Damien,
It pains me to say it but i agree with a lot of your post.
AI comclude that a below average winter cet wise is now almost impossible,what i would say is a 'mini cold spell of severe weather is still possible in either of the 3 main winter months.Sustainable cold lasting weeks is a thing of the past IMO,a 4 or 5 day cold spell is still possible though,and i think when it does come it will come from the east,northerlies just dont produce anymore due to the warmer seas and all the modified crap that comes with it.Easterlies can still produce though as the warmer seas have less of an impact.
Excellent post - I'll just add one thing: 4-5 days of sustainable cold are not worth looking forward too IMHO, for me. Well, maybe a bit, but they will be just so short, in the long run, and less likely with each mild Brown-Cameronian winter that goes by, that I will just come to not care about them.
Granted, they can be sweet - but I/we all want long, cold days of abundant snow not the short snaps of sleety nothingness they will eventually evolve into.
In Not By Fire... But By Ice, Robert Felix once told me he restrained a chapter on 'evolution' effects. He may be right - but the argument in reverse, of course, as well as in an (anti-)climatic effect, as global warming continues to consume us all in North-Western Europe.
Back to work we go....
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The seas surrounding the UK are very cool and below average. This early indicator (although there is plenty of time for change) show a positive factor that could indicate the UK is heading into a average-below average winter.
It did in 2006. The winter was mild.
With a cooler atlantic low pressure systems wont form as strongly or as pronounced as what they would with a warmer atlantic. The seas surrounding Scandinavia are proving above average which suggests there may be an increased low pressure development over there. Should these trends develop over winter we may see an increased presence of low pressure to the the east feeding northerly winds over the UK.Climatically correct, but "these trends" developed in early winter 2002/03, 2004/05 (bar the one hit-and-miss (for most miss admittedly - take that into account) in February 2005), 2005/06, etc.. All the winters, bar the aforementioned, were mild. (Certainly snowless - à la December 2002.)
With northerly winds comes cold temperatures, and with the prescene of a low-pressure system it may be a year of above average snow fall.No offence - but an even worse argument IMHO. January 2004 delivered squat. So did a few other occasions when there were "much-hyped" northerlies (led by the usual crowd of naïve idiots like toad, I have and have no far of saying). Interest in northerlies then diminished, and were replaced by interest in easterlies - when these failed to deliver, like I mentioned above, are we now back to northerlies? Very unusual memory, I may say. (Kind of political, actually, *ahem*.
)Consider the last "northerlies" we had were, like, 5 years ago (wasn't snowless winter 2003/04 the most 'northerly' (not that I doubt it though) winter on record since something like 1969?, LOL), and they delivered squat then, are you really that naïve to think that they will deliver 5 years on with yet more warming having happened, LOL?
No offence, but your arguments will just get you burned - and, as a three-year somewhat 'veteran' of the boards, who has surely been burnt before (your neck of the woods, mate?), surely you should know this?
Come on guys. Surely someone must have the meteorological arguments to pull down these arguments.
I know it's sad; but it's true.
Do you think I wanna sit here typing this; smashing peoples' dreams up like a Scrooge. :o This is turning out to be another cool summer. Last winter was quite cool but we didnt have the percipitation to match. The early indication factors that i look at are promising for a cooler winter again this year, but with still around 5 months, before we fall in the snow months, any sitituation could evolve that could alter our winter.Or even not evolve to alter our winter, as I explained above. :lol:
By the way - if I recall correctly, there wasn't much precipitation in winter 2003/04 (the January northerly) either. If there was - it fell as rain, as consistent with the current greenhouse models and the 'modern' era.
Bring back the '90s.
D.
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I'll chip in (probably for one last time) seeing as tomorrow is the "big day"...:
It might be, because I'll probably be down in mild Exeter for much of that season!However, if recent years are anything to go by, it will be more like this:
December/January/February- hardly any snow at all.
Response: "Why can't we get any cold snowy winters any more? Or an annual CET below 10C? Miserable things these mild winters!"
March/April: A fair amount of snow, and the March/April CET is "only" 0.5C above the 1971-2000 average.
Response: "This is awful, it's spring now! We should all be forgetting any desire for snow and wanting warm sunny weather! Those who fail to do this are clinging to the past- move on, move on, move on! How dare you enjoy these late snowfalls! We are owed a May with a CET of at least 15.2C after this misery!"
In the meantime the oil prices continue to go up, 80% because of repeated strikes and panic buying, and 20% because of the peak oil issue.
Sad truth is you will probably be right - based again on the patterns of recent years (mild winter then slightly cool/mildly wintry (early) spring).
Too right on oil + the economy too.
What's the "triumphed story" this year? Some big high over North-Western Europe? Bah. I don't believe Joe B&stardi for a second: and I think the MetO will get it wrong when they go "below" tomorrow.
Just as well I'll be in snowier plains anyway (CE).... And, unlike 'Captain Whingealot' (I can say this now all I want because I am off and won't need my Internet soon), I will enjoy the snow - not spend the entire winter posting about how 'meagre' or whatever it all is.
"Roll a snowball for the kids... Jesus Christ don't keep it hid."
"And the forecast's out
on the Met Office website,
read it on your monitor
burn it in your.... head."
Take care everyone.
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OK guys I've not seen the models for a while... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????????
Is anymore coming?
Never been as scared in my life. If that was Richter Scale #1 what the hell do Japan and LA go through (at Richter 6, etc.)?
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And "they" will blame it, of course, on global warming and ask for more research grants.
Heatwave - global warming. Constantly above average months - global warming (fair enough, it is evidence of GW). But its the rest that gets on my wick.....Gales - global warming. Tornado seen in Pembrokeshire - global warming. Floods - global yawning, I mean warming. Severe cold snap like we haven't had for 20 years? - global warming? You bet!
Extreme rainfall - greenhouse; drought (inc. in the UK) - greenhouse.
That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - and would of course encourage others to do so - put mine in the bin and recycle) lying there in the grass just by the side of the road could possibly be warming up the world by just lying there? I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? )Don't believe the hype. Emissions deffo crisp packets - not sure....
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This winter will be talked about in similar terms to the winter of 62-63....though it won't be as extreme.
It will be renowned for the energy crisis that develops during it as a result and will be a lesson as to just how unprepared we are to cope with a winter of this type these days...
(adopts voice of the dog in the Churchill Insurance adverts)Ohhhhh yeesss!
Laughable. Just laughable. All this talk of global warming going on and you sit there talking about snow. Are you looking for the way to your nearest local comedy club but couldn't find it and/or got kicked out?
Remember: less days at work lost due to snow. The sad reality we face - and, indeed, the sick mind of a capitalist.
"Sick and tried... of always being sick and tired..."
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About 100/1. I do not think England will ever see a white Christmas again, by that I mean either snow falling & settling, or lying snow. A shame, I know, especially for the kids, but that is the way it is. My own guess is it will be dry, cloudy & mild with an anticyclone across Biscay & N. France with temps averaging 10C. In fact, I believe the whole winter will be dry, cloudy & mild, similiar to 1988/9, i.e. a half decent winter
Well said.
Difference for me is I'll be in the Alps soon.
Suffolkboy_- one good way to tell if a coming forecast will be proven verified (though this is not always the case - à la NOAA, Ian Currie, BG, etc.) is if the previous few months (prior to now - Oct. 1) have been (generally) correct. And have they been so far?
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Noteto
Note to Admins - I know you may not like me posting these "Archive.org" links, but this time may I do so anyway?
I always enjoy reading TWO's forecasts and both respect and commend them for their general "first of the month" rule in regard to weather forecasts. (Compare this with the Met Office's "We must keep updating this (seasonal) forecast every week to assure it's right!" stance.) But:
http://web.archive.org/web/20040901102422/...heroutlook.com/
That is practically the same forecast!!! Surely?
Here's another one!!!
http://web.archive.org/web/20030920005306/...heroutlook.com/
Again, same patterns.
Come on TWO. Care to explain more on your methods this time?
Note to anyone who may read this: I'm not doing this to attack TWO - I am doing this out of genuine surprise. I must read this same forecast every two years from TWO and yet when November comes nothing. So I'm challenging TWO - honestly - and with the maximum respect and patience they deserve with years now of experience - to explain this forecast in more detail this time and why they have come to these conclusions. Thank you.
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Well I'm liking TWOs autumn forecast.....
Am I in a time warp?
"November snow chance" - and even that picture! - is the same every year (or more likely every two as the memories age)! Come on people!
TWO, pattern matching does not work. These are merely presenting weather patterns, like Metcheck's yearly "LRF" does. (Link.) As in 2005, just because there are *some* favourable weather patterns throughout the rest of the year (this year - the cooler summer; in 2005 - the cooler mid-September period), doesn't mean that the rest of the year will conform to the "norm". Surely this forecast is a "demo" or a "test"?
October also being "a month of two halves" rings a bell as well.
That said, this backs up my idea of it being a "2001/02-like" winter preceded by a 2001-like autumn (with a perhaps 2000-like November), rather ironically. :o
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This summer is a real lesson too many who take long range forecasts as gospel......, the safe option for winter today will always be to forecast another mild one, just like a warm one for summer...
That said NOAA had a good summer, according to Paul (the NW forecasts are based on their output, yes?). If so, gulp. But the winter forecast has been "back-forth, back-forth" "cold-mild, cold-mild" for some time now - though the overall consensus seems to be a slightly cooler than average start followed by with a well above average end. So again as I said in the other thread maybe a very 2001/02-type character to this winter starting with a very 2001-like autumn(?). Certainly this summer *has* resembled 2001 in *some* aspects IMHO (mainly in it's poor end than anything else).
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Even though I don't really trust it, just seen the NOAA forecast for the next few months/the full winter (by now). It really is looking dire if the Netweather winter forecast is based on that.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mSeaNorm.gif
Let's see what the ECPC GFS update brings in a few days/late next week (hopefully).
To me, at the moment, on those NOAA charts, the pattern is looking all too similar to recent years at the precise moment - a very cool/cold October across most of Northern Eurasia/Europe-Russia, with a followed by a significantly above average and south-south-westerly winter. :lol:
But, fortunately we all know what the track record of the NOAA CFS is like is the long-range forecasting field. :lol:
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From what I've seen the 1739 winter was global (tree rings in the USA show the smallest growth for 500 years). The main cause was largely thought to be Volcanic in nature as well. Not likely to happen nowadays.
Also, there was more ice in the North Atlantic (certainly our little bit of it) in the 1890s - I suppose we should look out for that *sign* as well. B)
(No offence meant - but using these kind of "aged" patterns just doesn't work IMHO.
Yes, that December chart is certainly not good. Reminds me of IRI's latest (well, now August) thoughts that I posted a while back. What's January showing?
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Just something to point out from a while ago in this thread from Damien
You are still missing the point from what Ribster said initially. The winter was cooler than average. Fact.
The fact that it didnt snow as much as you would have liked does not mean that it was not cooler than average, as predicted
Kris
Yes, and I also posted (later) that some long-term climate models in fact showed the winter of 2005/06, while indeed slightly cooler than the average over recent years, to be in fact still "warmer" than average (albeit this time (perhaps) only slightly) and more or less effectively "business as usual" for the Northern Hemisphere/North-Western Europe.
I did however say would try and dig out the relevant documents in re. to this but have not yet done so. I think Paul Dawlish may have them. B)
When you look at 1739-40, there were very few clues that would have been available before September 1739 began, even to us, let alone to the people living then, about the sudden plunge into arctic conditions that awaited them.Roger - with all due respects - this is a false base IMHO. The winter of 1739/40 was indeed a very severe one (one of the worst on record if my memory serves me correctly?) although it did occur, as you also rightly say, at the end of a long period of run of mild and above normal winters (maybe even warmer than today? :o ) However, using this winter as a "base" ot predict the (near) future weather is just nonsense IMHO because:
1. It was like over two centuries and a half ago,
2. The climate was very different back then (although again the (perhaps semi-valid similarities to today are acknowledged),
3 We are in a period of "warmer globe" now - certainly over our neck of the woods, read into that what you will.
I even mentioned earlier in this thread how using the 1980s-type weather patterns to try and determine our future weather was also equally as erroneous due to the same reasons - and the current "global warming" significantly above average temperatures (certainly again in NW Europe). Late 1990s-type patterns are more and the most useful at best, IMHO. Although long-term factors in forecasting such as CET averages over the last 30-year period (1971-2000) shoudn't be taken out and overlooked IMHO, nor conversely over baked.
Lastly,
This is in part why I think that the chances of another sudden and dramatic change to a colder winter this coming season would need to show its hand in the next 6-8 weeks in regions close to the British Isles. There was nothing very unusual about the autumn or winter seasons of 1739-40 in the weather records from the eastern USA or from Tokyo where I have seen some fairly normal looking data also.I don't think anything that dramatic is likely to happen, but I would be willing to revise that if I see various tell-tale signs of large-scale pattern change setting up in northern Europe by late September. I don't think the recent cool weather in July and parts of August really means anything in this debate, plenty of years in the past had cool summers followed by average to mild winters.
The way September appears to be developing, these tell-tale signs won't be seen early on, but there's plenty of time for it to happen, I suppose. If it goes back to another warm season and persistent above-normal temperatures in the next three months, though, I wouldn't expect more than a few brief wintry episodes at best.
Whilst again very true, we *have* been here before - with albeit smaller to larger factors - and the following winters have only produced what has only amounted to a short (well, month long) period of below average temperatures and snow like mid-Feb.-mid-March 2005 and the seemingly never ending cold, dry, snowless days that was winter 2005/06.
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Damian,
presumably you own a spade shop do you? Or you dig for a living? In the interests of not littering the thread any further I shall leave your last response alone and let casual observers make their own minds up...however, you might still explain some more about the climatic models and the warm 1980s; I'm particularly enjoying watching you disappear into that hole.
What's that you say? I can't here you up there? Shout a bit louder!
(On a serious note yes I will try and find this research that showed the 1980s to be a rather more "cold" anomaly as far as the Twentieth Century goes and in fact one of the coldest decades that it could respectively boast over all; I will try and have a look next week.)
No, seriously, I really can't wait..honestly...I'm part dreading them myself. You know, how it is - we build ourselves up then a fall. And, looking at the rollercoaster, a sheer downward plunge must be coming soon - just hope we ain't riding the NetWeatheresis.
(Wasn't there a downward plunge last August and then a "upward plunge" last September when the Sept./Aug. MetO dynamic runs were revealed?
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jeez wat a bore!!...bet u know how to empty a pub or break up a party!!
New LRFs in a week my friend so just wait we will (hopefully) have a new thread by then.
ECPC's February is what I'm most looking forward too although the next Met Office runs will be crucial IMHO.
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Phew! Just got back from a trip out with my boy and it seems I can remove the crash helmet and body armour I'd donned in anticipation of the flak I was expecting here. Still,a good row clears the air. I can barely believe Damien referred to me as a 'good, informative' poster after yesterday's outburst,but that made my day. No,really it has. As a relative newbie on here I have come to learn that certain individuals (hmm,wonder who they could be...?)are ready to pounce on any word,and that is a GOOD THING. It can be somewhat disconcerting to say the least,if you're not expecting it. Poor Wales123098 must have wondered what the hell he'd said wrong. Hang on in there Wales,you'll get used to it and learn to give as good as you get. Your contributions are as valid and as worthy as the old stalwarts!
I hear what you're saying Osmposm and you are of course absolutely right so long as the debate doesn't get out of hand and result in a slanging match. Otherwise jolly good and frequently highly educational fun!
Anyway,gonna take the missus off on the motorbike tomorrow,probably the last chance before this freaky summer slips into history and another samey winter takes over. The real thing comes in two years. Oops,what have I started now!?
Hi laserguy,
Just quickly - I now refer to you as a "good, informative poster" because it turned out that you did not write the comments I incorrectly asserted you did earlier - and hence duly apologised for this. Your "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" "outburst" (dare I say
) was little similar to mine - a moment of madness in an otherwise sensible discussion that I have both enjoyed (and partially regretted, *ahem*).I like posting here and the discussions here and would hate to think what I'm doing is somehow "turning people away", so I apologise if things got a little "hot under the collar" with us all earlier and feel it's time to turn the heat down in this thread, so to speak.
(A very apt thing to do as well as winter approaches.
)Poor Wales123098 must have wondered what the hell he'd said wrong. Hang on in there Wales,you'll get used to it and learn to give as good as you get. Your contributions are as valid and as worthy as the old stalwarts!Wales said nothing wrong - I just came in and corrected him on his incorrect assertions on how he had read and his misunderstanding of the earlier commentary and chart (namely the November ECPC August run offering) in this thread. I have also apologised if I was a little "direct" in the way I had spoken - and nor did I realise he was talking to me (partly) at the time - although that's another reason why I would to correct somebody as so: I don't or wouldn't want somebody new - who was only starting to learn about the weather - something we all I'm sure encourage on NetWeather - misinterpreting and misunderstanding the charts and commentary I had posted in the way that he (and others like him, perhaps(?)) had done - namely taking it as "gospel" and "granted". It will save him (and again others like him) a little bit of "heartache" later down the line, I'm sure you will either agree or find out.
Good luck on your motorbike trip and your winter 2009/10 "forecast", LOL.
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Could it just have been unlucky synpotics that we have generally been continuously on the mild side of low pressure systems (i.e. the south or south eastern or eastern flank of the low pressure systems) for days and weeks on end in the winter months in recent times, with us suffering from these constant ridiculous +ve double figure temperatures, high winds and heavy rain.
Yeah, as any weather man will tell you (I think either Michael Fish or Bill Giles was on the radio recently and they were asked this very question - and gave the very same answer): it's because the winds are blowing from the wrong direction - namely westerly.
Ian Currie's weather forecasts centre heavily around wind direction but have not had much success of late IMHO.
But with the high pressure systems in the winter months, the wind can flow from all points on the compass, but then when it slips away, it goes the wrong direction away and reintroduces more mild moist weather lasting ages.And the worrying thing was, when it did finally blow from the east in (late) February 2005, only a few lucky areas (admittedly my own included) got the magical white stuff.
So worrying times indeed - basically we *really* need to try this easterly theory out again, as 2005/06 delivered squat to my area in spite of/except for low temperatures and clear, dry days on end. -
Lots of arguing on here, and most of it about the past. This thread is about this winter and I really dont think warming in the 40's or not as the case may be has alot to do with the winter of 2007/2008. We all know that a cold winter is harder to get these days as tempratures are rising not just locally but around the world. Global warming is a seperate topic, if avarage tempratures have risen by 1 degree then maybe we won't get -10 this winter maybe we will get -9 instead. Sounds stupid but mathmaticly that is the truth. In the right setup it can get cold if not very cold all you have to do is look at the gfs max min temprature map and you will see some places get sub zero tempratures in august. If cold pooling as it is now is present in august and with the current factors in place it can only get colder as the months go on, and i do not really see any really really warm air that could push our way even if it wanted to . Take the weather channels lately today is classed as really hot or really warm but it is only 22 degrees where I am. Thats the same as a sunny bank holiday in april or may. I think we might have a few warm days this month but only because of the high pressure situation and not because of any spanish plume moving northwards. I see a lot of fog and frost this winter. So get your hats and gloves from the market now why there going cheap.
Chris
Good post and with this let's get back on track people!
The weather is about cooling down for winter - and it's time for this thread to cool too.
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If you do nothing else today Damian you might usefully google "Icarus". There's rather more than bit of "pot and kettle" in some of your posts above. And you certainly aren't in a position to go discussing grammar: when I last checked the OED was not replete with mad smilies, which are, IMO, absolutely NO substitute for saying what you're thinking. There used to be a rule of the highway which was don't act on another driver's flash of the lights - it's far too open to different interpretations: ditto smilies.
Thanks for the tip on Icarus I'll look up his paper (and the Archibald one).
I think the use of emotive object as applied to an inanimate object is rather different to the use of the same language applied to a person. I may be more forthright than many on here would prefer, but I'm always very careful to check my facts before rebutting an argument put forward by somebody else, and I don't bandy personal remarks around without presenting a reason for doing so.To be honest - to the guy who used the word "scum" earlier (NOT laserguy) - to whom my comments were directed: I'm sure you will agree I was entirely right. As for laserguy - he's a good, informative poster who "makes you think" (as you do: which is always a good thing in my book) but posts like "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" will prompt a response - even if it's just a rebuttal and a correction - from us rational, respectful enthusiasts like myself and Ian Brown (who both commented on what he wrote).
Aaah, but there'll be plenty of no here in N-W, lots of near-miss stinkers, cold pooling, spoiled notherlies, froast...whatever happens in practice, you can always rely on a wanter to remember during autumn, and a sustained wonter from November to April.Oh man we both know it's true. May the fun begin.
Anyhow I was hoping for a "quieter" weekend this weekend - but it all started with a post from Wales123098. But it doesn't matter because I at least hope we all learned something this last couple of days and that the facts here will help people and our new members understand the weather when they Google the dreaded and immortal search topic "winter forecasts 2007/08 UK".
Speak to you all soon.
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Crikey Stratos you're on fire today mate.
Good post so I'll pick up on some points:
Damian, there's some claptrap in there, sorry. If you're going to post facts for an argument - for which credit because it's a step up from a few on here - at least check them first.How can the 1940s have been the warmest globally when the record was set in 1998 at the end of a period of steady warming?
1998 was just the single warmest year on record/ever recorded (that may have changed to date?) because of increased (in fact record here as well) El Niño, solar activity, "global warming", etc.?
I think the 1940s were the joint warmest overall period along with (perhaps(?)) the 1990s.
As those plots show, the period from the 40s to the 80s was one of dynamic equilibrium, since when warming.(I forgot what I was originally going to right here.
I think it was something like:) Excellent point, and the 1980s were very much a part of this period.As the following plot based on CET shows, the winters of the 80s were NOT a fluke: they are, though, the last genuinely cold winters: my original point precisely. What we had in the 80s used to be a not unusual occurrence; now they seem like a permanent feature of the past."The last genuinely cold winters" were still a fluke - because they deviate from the natural maritime North-Western Europe norm. Sure, they are still/were a natural occurrence: as are above normal temperatures and periods from time to time; so thus not a "fluke" in the long run of time - but by overall, natural standards (and certainly greenhouse ones).
You've also obviously never studied history, or the syllabus has changed, because the bitter winters of the mid 1940s were one of the determining factors in halting the Germans' progress eastwards.The "sylla-what"? The "Germ-whos"?
Nah, just kidding mate. Of course I know about the Eastern advance and how it was halted by the bad weather from Russia (as had equally thwarted Napoleon 100 years earlier). But that was in the wider context of a normal (by Russia standards) cold winter - which do occur, as you rightly said in your previous comment, as part of natural variability and even general warming.
The 80s had cold winters in the UK, and thehemisphere was cooler than it had been in the 70s, but were not cold globally and not cold at all by standards of the reliable historic record.OK - and I didn't even mention "cold" - per se - I mentioned cool. But nonetheless I hinted at though so the models I may have checked may have been wrong.
Finally, you cannot measure the coldness of a winter by one off temperatures, and the UK record minimum is well shy of -30C. Also, 1995 was not particularly snowy judged by historic norms.True - but that was just a minor point about my point about the 1980s winters being rather cold and hence (somewhat) "un-natural" (i.e.: un-the maritime British norm) and that they only *seemed* colder given:
a) How cold it actually was at the time.
b ) The sheer "warmth" of the present,
c) It being rather recent history and peoples' memories.
You might elaborate on just how you have "pulled down" his comments. I may not agree with the use of "tragic" (tragic is, say, sudden loss of life, or grave misfortune - for all that one or two on here carry on about snow as if it were the be all and all of life, it it still never going to be a tragedy if the day comes when we no longer see snow in lowland in the UK - though the wider effects of the warming that would be implied by such an outcome might be tragic) but his broader point is correct. The UK has never had persistently cold or snowy winters - that is NOT the climatic regime we're in - but the type of winters we used tohave in the 80s were NOT an anomaly; to somebody your age they just seem that way. To someone of my age they were more extreme versions of what used to happen about, say, every 3-4 winters. They were absolutely NOT the strange occurrence you seem to be making them out to be, though you could always try to find some facts to make your case.You said it yourself
- and I stand by the idea that the 1980s winters in general, while not a "strange occurrence" - sorry if I made it out to be that way - they were certainly, once again, "un-the maritime British norm" given their general colder than average (average on the whole 1979-87) nature and the records that were broken in, as we both rightly say, December 1981, read into these records and figures what we may.(By the way: "to somebody your age they just seem that way" - better than someone who was not my age, i.e.: younger than me, seeing that as "normal" or "the norm". If it's not misguided (usually younger - no offence but again I mean in the wider of context of acquired knowledge and what we know about the weather, etc.) newbies - it's selective memory.
)What on earth do climate models have to do with things that have actually happened? If you're suggesting by that that the current models show warming and therefore the 80s were abnormal you are totally and utterly missing the point. That would be like an astronaut on the space shuttle looking backwards from launch and saying "gosh, the world has suddenly started flying backwards at 10,000mph".Not in the context of warming - that's just the wider point. I meant in the general context.
And by the way you mention computer models yourself in this thread - yes, they have been the "harbingers" of doom - us able to predict the future (currently warming? But also Gulf Stream "cooling"(?)) weather but also look back more accurately at past periods like the 1980s (and even 40s!) as well as to the future and make us see where we're going and also what we've done wrong. Hence this was also my point about the 1980s - some of these-type long-range major models did show the 1980s to be a rather "warm" period for the Earth overall (kind of the warmest decade of the 1890s-1940s warmest decades
).If you want to know whether or not the 80s (or any period) were "normal" you can only compare with what had gone before.I am doing - using mainly the 1970s, the 1990s, and the whole of the Twentieth Century. The present warming is just a newer, more urgent point that, as I said, adds to the perception above of those 1980s winters being the British "norm".
Anyhow I forgotten how insightful our old discussions were and it's nice to talk with you again.
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A man after my own heart TEITS. Proper crispy snow, which sticks around for a week or more instead of a dusting which melts in a few hours.
Damien; I think you need to chill out a bit mate, stop taking things so seriously eh? Everyone comes to the forum for their own reasons, to give and get what they want; that's life. It's not really fair to expect everyone to want the same as yourself and it certainly isn't fair to berate others because they don't work to your agenda.
I thought I was quite chilled. :o
As Steve Murr says - it's all a bit of fun; although weather forecasts can and will be used for serious purposes i.e.: military planning, agricultural planning, etc.. We are after all all weather enthusiasts - just some *see* the weather in different ways than others (and I'm sure everyone will agree that using the word "scum" and "degeneration" to describe the weather is a bit harsh
).Last night got a little heated - not to mention off-topic - though it's good to see recent posts have righted this wrong - and just as well as the impending updates at the start of next month will bring us new and updated LRFs to mull over.
Wales'guy' - great photos again!
Laserguy - good post and yes I did acknowledge that I was wrong about the "loft" thing. I apologise for that. Likewise I apologise for attacking you for using the word "scum" when you did in fact not use it: I'll try and dig out who did a little later. :o :o :o
Do you think I wanna sit here typing this; smashing peoples' dreams up like a Scrooge. :o 
That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - and would of course encourage others to do so - put mine in the bin and recycle) lying there in the grass just by the side of the road could possibly be warming up the world by just lying there? I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? 
MetO to call a positive / negative NAO for winter 2008-09?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
No, we haven't seen that.
No, we don't care about what the UK's leading (in fact official?) meteorological forecaster has to say about the coming season ahead we all love and haven't experienced properly nationwide since the late 1980s.
No, we have our heads in the sands.
No, thank you for enlightening us... oh wise one.
