[Northwest Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Stick some eyes/nose and mouth on that and you'd be mistaken for a snowman

I was thinking..put it away

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

What precipitation type is everyone getting?

None in Preston, but just got back from Stavely, about 1/2 foot!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

27 minutes ago, Dennis said:

olala

let watch the days later December

Hi Dennis, can you explain to me what we are looking at there?

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

13 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Is the cold air being mixed out already? I was forecast heavy snow 11-1pm.  Multiple  “live” weather outlets are saying heavy snow right now. But it’s raining, even at my elevation 

Piling up in the lakes at low levels

https://www.fba.org.uk/windermere-ferry-cam

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

27 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Complex question unfortunately. It depends on the airmass and also differs according to sun strength. In late Nov / December and most of Jan -6c/-7 uppers would suffice if airmass is continental in nature (easterly) and hangs around for a couple of days. In a maritime north westerly you might struggle to get ice days with -8/-9c uppers. As we go into Feb the depth of cold needed becomes greater due to the sun gaining power. 

Yeah to this Jason, so many variables, including inversions where the temps are 'flipped' so 850's can be relatively high but temps and ground level can be around freezing at below all day.

It's a bit like the 'will it snow' question we have in the uk isn't it! For this I generally just look at the 850-1000 charts to get an idea of the layer from clouds to ground. Normally not far off. Need the dam to be at least 130 (blue) on the attached I've found..for my locality anyway. Prob different in other areas

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is far from a done deal folks.  There is significant scatter on the GEFS and EPS through the medium range.  Lots of less cold options are still on the table - this morning’s mean EPS though decent is not as cold as previously.

Indeed, just looking the the GEFS postage stamps for 192 and there is no firm favourite outcome yet. Great to see OPS in the main agreeing but way too early still. I'm still very much in the 'hope for the best but expect the worst' mind frame yet

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Day 10 looks like it might give it another go further on. Sorry did I say that out loud

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Sorry if this is common knowledge, but just for anyone who wished there was more ECM data to view, you can by simply going on the ECMWF website, they decided last year that more info would be freely available to the public:

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you seriously telling me it was not signposted on the ensembles suites at all???    The reason there are 51 and 30 member suites are to allow for the lower resolution and that some members will pump out total bilge.

Seriously yes. There may have been an odd ensemble that picked it up in the far reaches and it disappeared next run (as you would expect that far out) but it wasn't until it got within the ECM op kind of time frame 168-240 that they suddenly started lining up with the opp. Total one off probably and never seen it again.

Point is the Op is higher res out to 192. So you would expect that it's starting point at that time frame to be slightly or substantially superior to the end for later FI? Questioning myself as well as you? The t384 down to zero was a fluke I am sure and nothing is really worth looking at at that distance apart from maybe looking for any SSW effects on trop. 

Ps apart from Glacier point we had little access to other ensembles, drivers and indeed the in-depth physics knowledge. Not like we do now on here, so it's unlikely nothing would see it nowadays.

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Disagree, loads of flatliners on the 6z suite, the best suite this winter for proper cold, the ensembles are doing their job, they are showing that these ops have some credence.

Was it 2010 or 2009 (or other notable cold spell) where the op picked it up at t384 and amazingly ran with it all the way until t00. Up to t144-168 the ensembles were  all over the place like the Benny hill theme tune. 

Surely because it has a higher res it should be more accurate for the 4-8 day period and therefore slightly more accurate for the 10 day charts?

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I posted to show the trend more than anything else, the red lines are climatic averages, ECM has gone from favouring above average, 3 days ago  to now below average

Wind direction charts don't seem too keen on anything from North, East or NE, unless I'm looking at it wrong?

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

West based? Genuine question 

Yep

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

1 minute ago, fellmike said:

Sorry for being thick but why is gfs showing a sw and ecm showing a ne wind in ten days time or am i reading it wrong?

Basically none are that accurate at 10 days, you will see the GFS on its own swings massively from run to run at that range. Best you can hope for is a general pattern,  Try to look at GEFS ensembles or the anomalies 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

25 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

GFS yesterday day 5

 

 

and today day for the same time......

 

Energy looks to be digging SE, something to watch!