[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes it's entirely possible to have a broadly westerly 'flow' across the UK which is of Polar Maritime origin

Thanks for your help Crewe. 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think you know exactly what I mean vase, why don'y you find a chart and have something subjective to say? Or is that not what you are in here for....

I said the flow was westerly on the chart, you disagreed. Crewe confirmed it was westerly.......I only asked to confirm I was reading the chart correctly. Not sure what your post is relating to, I only asked as I'm not expert with the charts.

So I guess I can't asked a question then or maybe disagree. 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Westerly with potential to go Nw'ly. You can follow the jet with ease straight through UK up across into S Scandi/Northernmost Europe

Thanks Crewe, I thought it was a westerly flow @karlos1983

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Not great initially, but that's not a westerly flow. 

As already alluded too, the PV is headed for Scandi most likely. 

 

Which direction is the flow?

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Certainly similarities from the ECM to its mean

What's the uppers in that Westerly flow off the Atlantic? The PV needs to move a lot more to favour the UK in some kind of Notherly flow.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Think Geordiesnow's post about a reality check is spot on. I was challenged for referring to the reliable, but all the long range 'excitment' is nice but means nothing ubtil it comes to fruiton. It is what it is until the speculated blocking actually materialises and....in the right place for our tiny island.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

This is very promising from Fergie

"GloSea continues it's path to resurrect the blocked theme later November and on through December... whilst the signal for an extraordinarily weak stratospheric PV remains an underpinning and noteworthy theme"

Hopefully charts similar to this, and better will start to pop up at we get closer to Mid month.

He has also stressed it depends where the blocks setup.

Does that chart show cold and snow or just cold rain for lower ground.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Certainly is nice to see Frosty, like you say hopefully the first of many. Nice graphic display of how, when, where and how much. Just goes to show what a difference it makes once you've got the cold in so to speak. As always nicely backed up by charts Karl.

Not a non event then karlos

12z dropped the GH in FI?

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

OK then...... Lets try the ECM and GFS 00z for size..

regardless of time frame, it's showing it, so there's potential.

 

Thanks for the reply, but those charts are not in the reliable, as per my previous post. There's always potential in any chart. Cheers.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

For high ground in the North, so this is a non event really. 

Things looking good for general outbreak of cold going off the 00z models though.

Does everyone live on low ground? This is 'an event' for many. Can't see your general outbreak of cold in the reliable.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Will be very informative Nick where we go once two current factors mature out.

This goes against any Zingers previously?

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Then this, late Nov would be a better time to ha e a cold spell when a few more factors are on our side - colder NH / seas etc....this may not happen of course but looking promising for now.

Rinse and repeat of winter for me. This will keep the average or just below about right until Xmas, but nothing seriously cold just usual winter fare (on the drier side though).

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

and Greenland is suffused in a HOT glow...hmmmm.