sea swim
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Posts posted by sea swim
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thanks for the responses!
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what would need to happen to temps tonight to convert forecast sleet to snow on north Wirral Coast? intensity of precipitation or could the 2 m temps forecast be awry for tonight please?
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Even on Wirral opportunity depends on altitude and proximity to sea. several times New Brighton is plumb in line of North/NNW's only to get cold rain whilst 2 miles inland B'head and Bebington have a bit and up in Heswall a bit more again with their altitude.
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excellent explanation Tamara, I really understood that, so many thanks for the clarity around the dropping off of enabler forces
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Tamara, have spent some months trying to grasp what you say in ways that’d make sense to me. This last post was brilliant, I get it(ish)now! - about overviewing the overall interactions of operations in remote strategic departments that affect distant interacting agency elsewhere (obviously!) - not serrendipity but still highly nuanced/complex - strategy rather than just looking at the activities and the business performance in mid-term forecasts/projections of a couple/few regional departments..
will improve understanding hereafter..
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Being in-between Mersey and Dee estuaries/North Wales, we must be the unluckiest here - New Brighton is at mouth of Cheshire Gap - but as always on the coast it will be cold rain, whereas 6 miles inland it’s always a different story with this set-up!
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Do folks now truly believe another spell similar to Dec 2010 might now be on the cards? That would be absolutely incredible, not to mention fantastic. (Been following this thread (and TWO's) model analysis and GWV's too , very closely plus many others via Twitter over last 3 months -again same as every yr for last decade!). we sea swim every day of the yr and so want to swim the Mersey in a Blizzard!
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great question! what other years indeed?
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14 minutes ago, Dennis said:
Hi @sea swim; its an SSW setup later - maybe this is a good point to have some nice PV disruptions in the diff layers of Hpa
brilliant! thank you! (and hi!).
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hi Dennis, excuse my ignorance but, how so? genuine question - and how might it impact please?
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1 hour ago, Dennis said:
wow thats impressive
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30 minutes ago, John Cox said:
Here you go sea swim. I'm sure January Snowstorm won't mind me obliging.
The Irish Met office forecasts heavily based on ECM, plus their own internal stuff. I find them very reliable and they rarely forecast beyond 5-7 days
Thats great!! Many thanks for this!
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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:
I'm not sure if the beeb do a farming analysis on their site but the Irish Met (met eireann) do. Well worth a read and surprising how much temps are below average. Air temps are up to 5 degrees below average with soil temps equally so. Whilst the models are chopping and changing the frosts continue unabated.. Someone mentioned don't think 2010? Going by these stats it ain't far away!!
Have you got a link to the page on their site please?
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
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As Kasim suggested - for the Wirral Coast we have done ok overnight. As to how long it stays as snow or transitions to Rain? looking to be a great 4 mile walk to work through the not so renowned snowy winter wonderland that is Birkenhead this morning!