[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

Winds are forecast to be ENE this weekend, perfect conditions for a thames streamer if snow showers become organised and come inland 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Don't understand the wrist slitting over the ECM, it is cold, the important thing is to get in the cold and then think about the snow

The last snowy spell was originally predicted to be a NW/cheshire gap affair, then at 2 days notice a channel low popped up and delivered 2-4" of snow to the south east, things chamge damn quick, important thing is to get the cold in and the ECM does that

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't want to derail the thread but with regards to the meto update, I find it much more positive with regards to cold this month. They will not be specific about snow until much nearer the time. I also find that they are generally 24 hours behind the game anyway.

Disagree

Usually when there is the prospect of snow, even small prospect they will generally put in the updates 

'there are possibilities later of something more wintry, but confidence is low' 

That update today contains absolutely nothing like that 

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

6 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Cmon Frosty, don't let them get ye down. You can do much better than this... especially when the models are on the cusp of  delivering something you and the forum have been chasing for long time.....a gold standard wintry blast

He is being realistic though 

The Met Office are showing no interest at all in their updates of the eye candy that is being shown in FI in a few model suites

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Fantastic charts, if the GFS 6z verifies it could be our snowiest period since 2010. But the Met Office don't seem very excited in their outlook to the 15th, talk of periods of cold with wintry showers possible in the notth, very underwhelming, don't the Met Office use their own model? because UKMO tells very different story to the update 

Remaining cautious till Met Office on board, but we could be on the brink of a once in a generation period of weather

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

The weather will do what it wants to do, late March 2013 there was a foot of lying snow across much of the country even with the stronger sun you get that time of year

Tomorrow will be the 8th anniversary of a Thames streamer that delivered 14" of snow to the London area

Get unexcited all you want but Feb/March is more than capable of delivering deep snow with the right set up

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Corbyn is as loopy and out of touch with the real world as his brother 

If Corbyn and Madden promise blizzards then expect the opposite

[Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which fits in with exeters view of a double warming wave to force a convincing reversal 

Where have they said this? do you have a link?

Reading the recent 30 day METO predictions, even as recently as yesterday, gave little comfort to those of us wishing for SSW to transform our winter

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Looks to me like SSW or bust now for this winter

But massive credit to the UKMO, it really has been the star performer this winter 

iIt showed no interest in the easterly that ECM were obsessed with and the fact ECM has completely backtracked and gone zonal this evening shows UKMO is the one to take seriously 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That day 10 chart is stunning, bone chillingly beautiful :- )

meanwhile, Sidney is praying the Ecm is wrong!

Think this will be Sidney if the ECM verifies, bone chillingly cold, with the potential for heavy snow showers if we get any instability or troughs